The Age of Consequences (2016) Movie Script
1
[MAN]
NUCLEAR WAR COULD QUITE POSSIBLY
FINISH OFF
CIVILIZATION ALTOGETHER.
CLIMATE CHANGE
LEFT TO RUN ITS OWN COURSE
COULD ALSO FINISH US OFF.
THE EXISTENTIAL ISSUE
IS WHETHER WE CAN FORESEE
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
AND GET IT DONE
IN TIME TO MATTER.
WE ARE ALWAYS IN A RACE
BETWEEN WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE
CAN DO FOR US
AND WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE
DOES TO US.
[REPORTER]
DROUGHT AND FOOD SHORTAGE...
[REPORTER]
A JUST-RELEASED REPOR FROM THE PENTAGON--
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE CHALLENGES IT'S CREATING
FOR THE MILITARY.
[REPORTER]
THE LATEST REPORT SAYS
GLOBAL WARMING
IS DRIVING WEATHER
TO NEW LEVELS OF EXTREMES.
[REPORTER]
...A GROWING THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY.
[MAN]
THE PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES
OF A WARMING WORLD
ARE ALREADY WITH US.
[MAN]
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND NATURAL DISASTERS
CAN CAUSE HUMANITARIAN CRISES,
POPULATION MIGRATIONS.
SCARCITY OF WATER, FOOD,
AND SPACE
COULD LEAD TO FAILED STATES,
INSTABILITY,
AND POTENTIALLY
RADICALIZATION.
SENATOR, THERE'S NO QUESTION
THAT ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY
CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC AFFEC ON OVERALL SECURITY
BOTH IN INDIVIDUAL STATES
AND REGIONALLY.
[MAN]
NEVER BEFORE HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE
FLED WAR AND PERSECUTION.
[MAN]
THIS IS CLIMATE CHANGE
FAR BEYOND THE MELTING ICE CAPS.
[MAN]
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,
WHILE NOT NEW TO HISTORY,
IS NEW TO THE MODERN WORLD.
IT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY
ADD TO THE CHALLENGES
OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY:
HUNGER, POVERTY,
AND CONFLICT.
THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE FAR-REACHING
AND UNPREDICTABLE,
DEMANDING OUR ATTENTION
AND STRATEGIC THINKING.
THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
IS PREPARING TO ADAPT TO THESE
21st CENTURY CHALLENGES.
[MAN]
THE INTERSECTION
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE SECURITY OF NATIONS
WILL BECOME A DEFINING REALITY
IN THE YEARS AHEAD.
WE CANNOT IGNORE THE COSTS
OF INACTION
AND WE CANNOT LEAVE THESE
MASSIVE SECURITY CONCERNS
TO THE NEXT GENERATION.
WE ARE NOW IN THE AGE
OF CONSEQUENCES.
[MICHAEL BREEN]
THINK ABOUT IT FROM
A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE.
WHEN I WAS LEADING
PARATROOPERS IN AFGHANISTAN,
IF 98,
99% OF MY INTELLIGENCE
TOLD ME THAT I WAS DRIVING
MY PLATOON DOWN A ROAD
AND THAT TWO MILES
DOWN THAT ROAD
THERE'S AN AMBUSH
WAITING FOR ME.
[GUNS FIRING]
I DON'T GET TO SAY,
"YEAH, BUT THERE'S THAT 1%
THAT SAYS
THAT THERE'S NO AMBUSH,
SO TO HELL
WITH THE OTHER 99%.
WE'RE GONNA
KEEP GOING DOWN THE ROAD."
I MEAN, THAT'S NEGLIGENCE
ON AN UNFATHOMABLE SCALE.
THAT'S THE DEBATE
WE'RE HAVING RIGHT NOW
WITH REGARD TO CLIMATE.
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS
IS WE ARE FACING
A MASSIVE RISK.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING.
WE'VE GOT TO DECIDE WHETHER
WE'RE GOING TO ACT ON IT OR NOT.
AND THAT CHOICE
HAS CONSEQUENCES.
[FRANCESCO FEMIA]
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
THE BASIC RESOURCES
THAT ARE NECESSARY
FOR HUMANS TO SURVIVE
AND FOR NATIONS TO CONTINUE.
AS WE SEE OUR RESOURCES
STRESSED SIGNIFICANTLY,
WE'RE GONNA SEE SOME
UNPRECEDENTED CHANGES
THAT WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR.
THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ON EVERY FACET OF LIFE.
THEY IMPACT ON EVERY FACE OF NATIONAL SECURITY
AND OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY.
THAT MAKES INSTABILITY.
THAT MAKES CONFLIC MUCH MORE LIKELY.
[CHRISTIAN PARENTI]
THE FIRST TIME I THOUGHT ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE AND VIOLENCE
WAS IN AFGHANISTAN
WHILE RESEARCHING OPIUM POPPY
FROM WHICH HEROIN IS MADE.
EVERY TIME
I INTERVIEWED FARMERS,
THEY SAID, "PART OF WHY
WE GROW THIS CROP
IS BECAUSE
IT'S DROUGHT-RESISTANT."
TURNS OUT AFGHANISTAN
IS GOING THROUGH THE WORS DROUGHT IN LIVING MEMORY,
AND POPPY USES ONE FIFTH
THE AMOUNT OF WATER
THAT WHEAT USES.
THE KARZAI GOVERNMEN WERE ERADICATING POPPY.
THE TALIBAN,
ON THE OTHER HAND,
SAID TO THE FARMERS,
"WE WILL DEFEND YOUR RIGH TO GROW THIS CROP."
EVEN IN THAT CONFLICT WHICH
HAS THIS ELABORATE HISTORY,
THERE IS A CLIMATE ASPECT.
IT'S ALWAYS A QUESTION
OF HOW CLIMATE CHANGE
INTERACTS WITH OTHER
PRE-EXISTING PROBLEMS.
IF YOU HAVE AN AREA
THAT IS ALREADY UNSTABLE
AND THEN HAS THE ADDITIONAL
CHALLENGE OF SEA LEVEL RISE,
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS,
WATER SHORTAGES
OR FOOD SHORTAGES
OR A DISASTER
THAT MAKES PEOPLE MOVE,
THEN YOU CAN START SEEING
CONFLICT SITUATIONS.
IT'S ALL
THE UNDERLYING CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE STIMULUS
OR THE CATALYS THAT CAN CAUSE ALL OF THA TO AGITATE AND BECOME CONFLICT.
[SHOUTING, GUNS FIRING]
FROM MY PERSPECTIVE
AS A FORMER MEMBER
OF THE UNITED STATES MILITARY
AND 30 PLUS YEARS
OF SERVICE IN UNIFORM,
CLIMATE CHANGE IS WHAT WE CALL
AN ACCELERANT TO INSTABILITY.
IT IS WHAT'S CAUSING
A LOT OF THE CONFLIC OR HELPING ASSIST THE CONFLIC THAT'S GOING ON
AROUND THE WORLD.
AND YOU CAN SEE THA ON THE FRONT PAGES
OF THE PAPER
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY.
[GIRL SINGING
IN NATIVE LANGUAGE]
[EXPLOSION]
[MAN SPEAKING
ON DISTANT P.A. SYSTEM]
[GUN FIRES]
[BREEN]
IF YOU LOOK
AROUND THE WORLD TODAY,
WE CAN ALREADY SEE
CONFLICT AND CLIMATE IN PLAY
RIGHT UNDER THE HEADLINES
THAT WE'RE READING.
[REPORTER]
THE INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS
IS NOW DESIGNATING
SYRIA'S DEADLY CONFLIC TO BE A FULL-BLOWN
CIVIL WAR.
[BREEN]
THINK ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS
WE DON'T OFTEN LOOK AT.
THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA,
NOW GOING ON FOR YEARS,
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS DEAD,
THE ENTIRE REGION
IS IN CHAOS AS A RESULT.
[REPORTER]
A NEW STUDY FINDS
CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED
THE WORST DROUGHT EVER
IN MODERN SYRIA
AS A CONSEQUENCE
OF HUMAN INTERFERENCE.
[REPORTER]
PROFESSOR RICHARD SEAGER
SAYS THA A THREE-YEAR DROUGH PLAYED A HUGE ROLE
IN PUSHING THE SYRIAN PEOPLE
INTO AN ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR.
THIS IS THE FIRST STUDY
THAT QUANTITATIVELY
DRAWS A CONNECTION
BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE ONSE OF A CONFLICT.
SYRIA BEGAN TO EXPERIENCE
A SERIOUS MULTI-YEAR DROUGH IN THE WINTER OF 2006, 2007.
AND THAT DROUGHT LASTED
FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS.
FARMING FAMILIES JUS CANNOT SURVIVE ON THE LAND
WHEN A DROUGH LASTS THAT LONG.
[CHENEY]
AS PEOPLE TRY TO FEED
THEIR FAMILIES AND CAN'T,
THEY'VE GOT TO GO SOMEWHERE.
[BREEN]
THE DROUGHT CAUSED
A LARGE NUMBER
OF YOUNG SYRIAN
MEN IN PARTICULAR
TO LEAVE FARMLAND
AND GO TO THE CITIES.
[CHENEY]
DAMASCUS, ALEPPO,
ONE AND A HALF PLUS
MILLION PEOPLE HAD TO MOVE.
[BREEN]
THAT HAS A MAJOR
DESTABILIZING IMPAC WHEN PEOPLE HAVE
TO PICK UP AND LEAVE
WHETHER IT'S BECAUSE OF CONFLIC OR RESOURCE SCARCITY.
AS ANYONE CAN TELL YOU,
A BUNCH OF UNEMPLOYED
YOUNG MEN IN A MAJOR CITY
IS NOT A RECIPE
FOR SOCIAL STABILITY.
[SEAGER]
NOW SYRIA HAD ALREADY ABSORBED
ABOUT A MILLION
AND A HALF REFUGEES
FROM IRAQ WHO WERE FLEEING
THE CIVIL WAR THERE.
THOSE NUMBERS COMBINED SUCH
THAT THE POPULATION
OF SYRIAN CITIES
GREW BY ABOUT 30% OR MORE.
THAT RATE OF MIGRATION
IS ABSOLUTELY CATASTROPHIC.
IT DROVE FOOD PRICES UP,
IT DROVE APARTMENT PRICES UP,
STRAINED THE HEALTH SYSTEM,
ALL LEADING TO THE KINDS
OF CONDITIONS OF DISCONTEN TO THE ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR
THAT IS STILL GOING ON NOW.
WHEN WE ANALYZED ALL
THE PRECIPITATION DATA
WE COULD GET,
WE FOUND THAT WE JUS COULDN'T ATTRIBUTE
SUCH A LONG AND SERIOUS DROUGH TO NATURAL CLIMATE
VARIABILITY ALONE.
[PARENTI]
THAT PARTICULAR DROUGHT WAS
TWO TO THREE TIMES MORE LIKELY
BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
[SEAGER]
WE OF COURSE DID NOT SAY
DROUGHT WAS THE SOLE CAUSE
OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR.
IT'S THE CONFLUENCE
OF MULTIPLE CAUSES COMING IN,
WITH CLIMATE
BEING ONE OF THEM.
[FEMIA]
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ALL ABOUT THE WATER.
SO WE HAVE CLIMATE CHANGE
LEADING TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY.
WE DON'T NECESSARILY KNOW
WHEN THE WATER IS GONNA COME.
WE CAN'T PREDIC THAT WE'RE GONNA GE THE SAME AMOUNT OF WATER
AS WE USED TO GET,
AND THAT IS GOING TO HAVE
A HUGE IMPAC ON WHETHER OR NO WE CAN GROW FOOD.
SO IN THE CASE OF SYRIA,
WE'RE TALKING ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS WATER RESOURCES,
HOW THAT IMPACTS FOOD RESOURCES,
AND WHAT THAT MEANS
FOR WHAT PEOPLE DO FOR A LIVING,
WHETHER IT'S FARM,
HERD ANIMALS,
OR JOIN A TERRORIS ORGANIZATION.
[REPORTER]
THIS IS A CITY DRAPED IN BLACK
AND A CITY RAGING WITH ANGER.
[REPORTER]
THIS IS ISIS,
THE ISLAMIC STATE
OF IRAQ AND SYRIA.
[CHENEY]
AS PEOPLE MOVED
INTO THOSE CITIES IN SYRIA,
THEY WERE UNEMPLOYED,
DIDN'T HAVE A SOURCE OF FOOD.
THEY NEEDED
TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES.
ISIL PROMISED THEM
BOTH THOSE THINGS
DESPITE THE PHILOSOPHY
BEHIND THEIR ORGANIZATIONS,
PEOPLE WANT TO SURVIVE FIRST.
[SEAGER]
ISIS WAS PRE-EXISTING
IN THE REGION
AND WOULD HAVE EXISTED
EVEN THERE HAD NOT BEEN
A DROUGHT IN SYRIA,
BUT ONCE THE SYRIAN SOCIETY
BEGAN TO UNRAVEL,
EVERY ACTOR
WITHIN THAT REGION
SAW AN OPPORTUNITY
TO TRY TO USE THE CRISIS
TO ADVANCE
THEIR PRE-EXISTING AGENDA.
[FEMIA]
ISIS HAS CERTAINLY
TAKEN ADVANTAGE
OF SCARCE WATER RESOURCES,
CREATING LEVERAGE
OVER LOCAL POPULATIONS.
[REPORTER]
ISIS HAS JUS TAKEN OVER A DAM
NEAR THE KEY CITY OF RAMADI,
SHUTTING IT DOWN
AND PREVENTING WATER
FROM REACHING
TWO KEY TOWNS.
THEIR GOAL, TO QUOTE
"KILL PEOPLE OF THIRST."
[BREEN]
THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS
TO RIVER TOWNS.
THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS
TO WATER SUPPLIES,
AND IT'S DRIVING THEIR STRATEGY.
[CHENEY]
WATER BECOMES
AN INSTRUMENT OF WAR
FOR THESE PEOPLE
WHO ARE LOOKING TO TAKE OVER.
YOU CONTROL THE WATER,
YOU CONTROL THE LIVELIHOOD
OF THE PEOPLE.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS GONNA IMPAC THE AMOUNT OF WATER.
IT'LL IMPAC WHO CONTROLS THE WATER.
THAT'LL IMPAC THE INSTABILITY.
[SEAGER]
THE CLIMATE CHANGE THA WE'RE GONNA BE EXPERIENCING
OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS
IS WAY IN EXCESS
OF WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED
UP TO NOW.
AND I THINK THE SYRIA CASE
IS A REAL WAKE-UP
FOR WHA THE CONSEQUENCES CAN BE,
AND THIS IS REALLY EARLY ON
IN THIS GAME.
[PARENTI]
IT'S IN THE U.S.
NATIONAL INTERES TO ENSURE THAT THERE'S
A STABILITY GLOBALLY.
THOSE ARE THINGS
THAT CAN COME HOME TO US.
[TIMOTHY SNYDER]
YOU CAN ALWAYS LOOK AT SYRIA
AND SAY, "WELL, IT'S ISIS,"
OR, "WELL, IT'S ASSAD."
YES, IT IS ISIS.
YES, IT'S ASSAD.
BUT THERE'S A BACKDROP
WHICH HAS TO DO WITH CLIMATE.
THAT'S GONNA HAPPEN
OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN.
EACH TIME WE'LL HAVE
A DIFFERENT POLITICAL
OR IDEOLOGICAL STORY TO TELL,
EACH TIME IT'LL BE TRUE,
AND EACH TIME THE UNDERLYING
FACTOR WILL BE CLIMATE.
[BURKE]
WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE,
IT'S A NATIONAL
SECURITY CHALLENGE
IN THE BROADES POSSIBLE SENSE,
IN THAT THESE CHANGING
WEATHER PATTERNS OVER TIME
ARE GOING TO AFFEC THE WAY WE LIVE.
THEY'RE GOING TO AFFEC OUR FOOD SUPPLY,
OUR WATER SUPPLY, THE HEA OF THE ENVIRONMENT WE LIVE IN.
SECURITY IN THE BROADEST SENSE
IS ABOUT ALL THE THINGS
THAT WE CARE ABOUT DAY TO DAY.
ARE YOU SAFE?
CAN YOU FEED YOUR FAMILY?
CAN YOUR CHILDREN
GO TO SCHOOL?
WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGE
IN THE MILITARY SENSE,
YOU'RE TALKING ABOU HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THE MILITARY HAS TO DO?
THE MISSIONS IT GOES ON,
OR SUPPORT HERE AT HOME.
HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THEY NEED TO BE
READY FOR IN THE FUTURE?
[GEORGE H.W. BUSH]
WE ALL KNOW
THAT HUMAN ACTIVITIES
ARE CHANGING THE ATMOSPHERE
IN UNEXPECTED
AND IN UNPRECEDENTED WAYS.
I FIRST SAW THE EFFECTS
ON NATIONAL SECURITY
AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
IN SOMALIA IN THE EARLY '90s.
THE ESSENTIAL NATURE
OF THAT CONFLIC WAS ORIGINALLY
CAUSED BY DROUGH AND A LACK OF FOOD,
SIMPLY STATED,
AND WE BEGAN TO SEE
A MAJOR TREND.
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ONE OF THE VARIABLES
THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED
WHEN THINKING ABOU INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD.
[WOMAN]
I'D LIKE TO TURN NOW
TO SHERRI GOODMAN.
SHE SERVED AS DEPUTY
UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE
FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY.
[GOODMAN]
LIKE MANY OF YOU
PROBABLY NOW,
YOU WANT TO WORK ON
THE BIG ISSUES OF THE DAY.
THAT'S WHAT I WANTED TO DO,
SO I WAS IN THE FIELD
OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ARMS CONTROL
WERE THE BIG CHALLENGES,
BUT IT WAS ACTUALLY
DURING AN ERA
WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
BEGAN TO BE IMPLEMENTED
IN PLACES LIKE
THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT.
AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY,
THERE BEGAN TO BE RECOGNITION
THAT THERE WAS A NEXUS BETWEEN
WHAT'S HAPPENING
IN CLIMATE CHANGE
AND NATIONAL SECURITY.
WE'VE SEEN THIS ESTIMATION
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A SIGNIFICANT RISK
SINCE THE EARLY DAYS
OF THE GEORGE W. BUSH
ADMINISTRATION.
THE VERY FIRST REPORT FROM
THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
WAS IN 2003
AND IDENTIFIED THE POTENTIAL
NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE.
I WAS ASKED TO TAKE ON
THIS CHALLENGE DIRECTLY
IN ABOUT THE 2006 TIME FRAME,
AND SO I GATHERED
THE NATION'S
LEADING RETIRED
MILITARY OFFICERS.
AS A GROUP, WE ARE NOT YOUR
TRADITIONAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS.
CNA's MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD
IS A GROUP OF SENIOR RETIRED
ADMIRALS AND GENERALS
FROM ALL FIVE SERVICES THA HAVE CHANGED THE CONVERSATION.
THE VIEW OF THE MILITARY
ADVISORY BOARD
IS THAT WE CAN'T WAIT UNTIL
WE HAVE ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY.
IF WE WAIT,
WE MIGHT WAIT TOO LONG.
[GOODMAN]
WE RELEASED OUR INITIAL REPOR "NATIONAL SECURITY AND
THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE"
IN 2007.
WE REALIZED
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE
WOULD BE A THREAT MULTIPLIER
FOR INSTABILITY.
PEOPLE BECOME DESPERATE BECAUSE
THEY HAVE EXTREME WEATHER
AND THE SEAS ARE RISING
AND THERE ARE FLOODS IN ONE
AREA AND DROUGHTS IN ANOTHER.
FRAGILE STATES BECOME
MORE UNPREDICTABLE.
[BURKE]
THAT WAS DEFINITIONAL.
WHEN THAT STUDY CAME OUT,
IT REALLY SET A BASELINE FOR HOW
TO TALK ABOUT THIS ISSUE.
[MAN]
ONE OF THE KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
OF THE CNA REPOR WAS TO INCORPORATE
THE CONSEQUENCES
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
INTO A NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.
[MARCUS D. KING]
IN 2008, THE IDEA
THAT CAME OUT OF THAT REPOR WAS CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED
EXISTING SOCIETAL TENSIONS.
SOCIAL TENSIONS
AND ECONOMIC COSTS
COULD LEAD TO STATE
OR REGIONAL INSTABILITY
THREATENING U.S. INTEREST.
IT COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO INTER-
AND MORE LIKELY
INTRASTATE CONFLICTS.
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY
WORKED ITS WAY
INTO THE HIGHEST-LEVEL
STRATEGIC DOCUMENT PRODUCED
BY THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.
[BREEN]
THE QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE
REVIEW,
THE PENTAGON'S
BEDROCK STRATEGIC DOCUMENT,
HAS CONSISTENTLY IDENTIFIED
CLIMATE CHANGE
AS AN ACCELERAN OF INSTABILITY OR CONFLICT.
IT WAS REALLY THE FIRST TIME
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WAS
ADDRESSED AT THAT LEVEL.
WE NOW SEE THIS SIGNED OU BY THE SECRETARIES OF DEFENSE.
[FEMIA]
THE CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION ROAD MAP
IDENTIFIED CLIMATE CHANGE
AS POSING IMMEDIATE RISKS
TO NATIONAL SECURITY.
[GOODMAN]
2014, WE FOUND THA THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE
AND THAT THEY ARE NOW
A CATALYST FOR CONFLICT.
[TITLEY]
WE'VE TURNED THE CORNER,
AND WE REALLY SEE
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES
OF THE 21st CENTURY.
[BURKE]
I CAN REMEMBER ONCE
GETTING IN A DISCUSSION
WITH A CAREER CIVILIAN
AT THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
WHO WAS EXPRESSING CONCERN
ABOUT TALKING
ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
AND SAID
WE HAVE TO USE LANGUAGE
THAT DOESN'T, YOU KNOW,
OFFEND PEOPLE,
THAT DOESN'T SAY
THIS IS REALLY HAPPENING.
AND I JUST LOOKED AT HIM
AND I SAID,
"THAT'S INCOMPATIBLE
WITH U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY,"
AND I, YOU KNOW,
CITED ALL THESE REPORTS,
AND SAID, "YOU NEED TO LOOK
AT WHAT YOUR OWN
GOVERNMENT IS SAYING
AND WORK FROM THAT."
[MAN]
WE'RE GONNA BEGIN
BY RECOGNIZING
WHERE ADMIRAL DAVID TITLEY
WAS A MEMBER OF CNA
MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD.
WHENEVER YOU'RE READY,
PLEASE BEGIN.
[TITLEY]
I'M HERE TODAY
NOT ONLY REPRESENTING
MY VIEWS ON SECURITY
IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE,
BUT ON THE COLLECTIVE WISDOM
OF 16 ADMIRALS AND GENERALS.
SIR, OUR COLLECTIVE,
BOTTOM-LINE JUDGMEN IS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE
IS AN ACCELERATING RISK
TO OUR NATION'S FUTURE.
THESE SERIOUS IMPACTS
TO OUR SECURITY
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN BOTH FREQUENCY
AND CONSEQUENCE.
FAILURE TO THINK ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE
MIGHT IMPACT OUR GLOBALLY
INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMS
AND ALL ELEMENTS
OF U.S. POWER AND SECURITY
IS FRANKLY A FAILURE
OF IMAGINATION.
[LEON FUERTH]
THERE'S A TENDENCY TO SEPARATE
THINKING ABOUT DOMESTIC EVENTS
FROM INTERNATIONAL EVENTS
AS IF THAT WAS A REAL BARRIER.
WHAT WE DO IN THIS COUNTRY
HAS A STRONG IMPACT ON PEOPLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
AND VICE VERSA.
SO YOU REALLY HAVE
TO START LOOKING
AT RECIPROCAL INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN EVENTS
IN DIFFERENT PARTS
OF THE WORLD.
WHEN IT COMES TO SOMETHING
LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE,
YOU BEGIN TO WORRY
ABOUT PHENOMENA
THAT YOU WEREN'T COUNTING ON
KICKING IN AT SOME
INDETERMINATE LEVEL.
[REPORTER]
RUSSIA IS ON FIRE.
MORE THAN 500 WILDFIRES
RAGING ACROSS
THE DROUGHT-PLAGUED COUNTRY.
[REPORTER]
THE HEAT WAVE
HAS RAVAGED FARM LAND
AND DESTROYED CROPS
OVER AN AREA
THE SIZE OF PORTUGAL.
[REPORTER]
THIS DISASTER COULD DESTROY
ONE OF THE NATION'S
BIGGEST EXPORTS, WHEAT.
[FEMIA]
IN 2010, THERE WAS
A MAJOR DROUGH WHICH LED TO HEAT WAVES
IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
AND IN CHINA,
WHICH REALLY
DEVASTATED THE WHEAT CROP
IN THOSE COUNTRIES.
[REPORTER]
IT'S THE WORST DROUGH IN 200 YEARS.
CHINA'S IN A CRISIS,
BUT THIS IS ONE
FOR THE WORLD TO WATCH.
[REPORTER]
COMMODITY TRADERS HAVE REACTED
TO THE FIRES AND DROUGH BY PUSHING UP
THE PRICE OF WHEA TO A 23-MONTH HIGH.
[FEMIA]
CHINA, RUSSIA STARTED BUYING
A LOT OF WHEA ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET,
DROVE THE PRICES UP
SIGNIFICANTLY.
[SEAGER]
BECAUSE FOOD IS TRADED GLOBALLY,
FOOD PRICES CAN BE INFLUENCED
BY WHAT'S GOING ON
ALL OVER THE WORLD.
IF YOU ARE BUYING BREAD
IN DAMASCUS OR IN CAIRO,
THAT GRAIN HAS BEEN TRADED
ON AN INTERNATIONAL MARKET,
SO IT IS SENSITIVE
TO CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS
FROM KANSAS,
THE SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA,
AND IN URUGUAY
AND ARGENTINA.
WHAT HAPPENS GLOBALLY MATTERS.
[SNYDER]
GLOBALIZATION IS INHERENTLY
UNPREDICTABLE.
SINCE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
ARE ALL IN ONE
GLOBAL MARKET NOW,
WHAT CHINA DOES
WHEN IT PANIC-BUYS
IS IT AFFECTS MARKETS
ALL OVER THE WORLD.
[SEAGER]
LARGE SHOCKS
ON THE GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY
WILL ALWAYS AFFEC THE MOST VULNERABLE PEOPLE,
BECAUSE WHEN THE PRICES
ARE BEING DETERMINED
INTERNATIONALLY,
THE FOOD WILL GO TO THOSE PEOPLE
WHO HAVE THE MOST MONEY.
INEVITABLY,
THE POORER OF THE WORLD
WILL BE THE ONES WHO BEAR
THE BRUNT OF ANY SHORTFALL.
[FEMIA]
NOW, EGYPT IS ONE
OF THOSE COUNTRIES
THAT'S HEAVILY DEPENDEN ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET.
[REPORTER]
WITH A POPULATION
OF MORE THAN 80 MILLION,
THE DEMAND FOR DAILY BREAD
IS HIGH.
IT HAS MADE EGYPT THE WORLD'S
LARGEST IMPORTER OF WHEAT.
IN A NUMBER OF AREAS
AROUND THE COUNTRY,
THE PRICE OF WHEA WENT UP 300%.
[REPORTER]
IN A COUNTRY THAT HAS TO IMPOR MORE THAN HALF
THE WHEAT IT NEEDS,
FLOUR HAS STARTED TO LOOK
LIKE GOLD DUST.
RUSSIA STOPPED EXPORTING WHEA TO THE MIDDLE EAS DURING THAT PERIOD.
[TRANSLATOR]
DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DROUGHT,
I BELIEVE IT IS REASONABLE
TO INTRODUCE
A TEMPORARY BAN ON GRAIN
AND WHEAT PRODUCT EXPORTS
FROM THE TERRITORY
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION.
WHEN THEY CUT THAT WHEAT OFF,
THINGS BECAME VERY UNSTABLE.
[CROWD CHANTING]
[REPORTER]
THIS IS WHA POPULAR UPRISING LOOKS LIKE.
[REPORTER]
PROTESTERS DEMANDING
BREAD AND FREEDOM
AND CALLING FOR GOVERNMEN OFFICIALS TO STEP DOWN.
[TITLEY]
IF YOU EITHER DON'T HAVE FOOD
OR YOU HAVE FOOD
BUT NOW YOU HAVE TO PAY
A WHOLE LOT MORE FOR I AND YOU DON'T HAVE
THAT DISPOSABLE INCOME,
IT BECOMES A HUGE THREAT.
YOU'RE PROBABLY
GONNA DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.
[REPORTER]
THESE PROTESTS SEEM TO BE
A KIND OF CHAIN REACTION
ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.
[REPORTER]
FOR DECADES, ANGER HAS SIMMERED
THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD--
ANGER OVER
CORRUPT GOVERNMENTS,
POVERTY,
AND A LACK OF FREEDOM.
IT'S NOT JUST THIS VERY SIMPLE
"IF A, THEN B."
CLIMATE CHANGE CAN BE
ONE OF THE CAUSES
IN KIND OF
A CHAIN OF EVENTS SCENARIO
LIKE IN THE ARAB SPRING
THAT EXACERBATES AN ALREADY
VOLATILE POLITICAL SITUATION.
[REPORTER]
CENTRAL CAIRO, A BATTLEFIELD.
[REPORTER]
BULLETS WERE FLYING
AROUND TAHRIR SQUARE.
[CLATTERING, SCREAMING]
[REPORTER]
PROTESTERS LOOTED WEAPONS
AND TURNED THEM ON POLICE.
[PARENTI]
THE SUDDEN SHOCKS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CAN LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS
AND COLLAPSES.
SO YOU'RE GONNA HAVE
FRAGILE SOCIAL SYSTEMS
THAT JUST NEED ONE MORE SHOCK
TO TIP THEM OVER THE EDGE
INTO A DIFFERENT CONFIGURATION,
INTO SOCIAL BREAKDOWN,
INTO WAR.
[CROWD SHOUTING,
HORNS HONKING]
[SNYDER]
WE HAVE HAD,
FOR A COUPLE OF GENERATIONS,
A SENSE THAT FOOD
IS NOT PART OF POLITICS.
THIS IS SHORT-TERM,
I'M AFRAID.
THE PROBLEMS
THAT WE'RE HAVING NOW
ARE UNFORTUNATELY
A SMALL FORE TASTE
OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN BECAUSE
OF THE INTERDEPENDENCE
OF CLIMATE, ECONOMICS,
AND POLITICS.
IT'S GENERALLY THE CASE
THAT ALL SOCIETIES
SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLE
THINKING ABOUT THE MIDDLE
AND THE LONG-TERM FUTURE.
SINCE THERE IS A HISTORY
OF CATASTROPHE,
WHEN WE LOOK AT OURSELVES
IN THE PRESENT DAY,
HISTORY IS THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
THAT WE HAVE FOR PERSPECTIVE.
[SOLOMON HSIANG]
WHEN WE LOOK BACK
INTO THE HISTORICAL RECORD,
WE ACTUALLY SEE THA THE COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATIONS,
PLACES LIKE ANGKOR WAT,
WHERE WHOLE POLITICAL
SYSTEMS CRUMBLED,
THOSE THINGS
SEEM TO HAVE OCCURRED
RIGHT AT THE SAME TIME
THAT REALLY LARGE-SCALE
GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES
WERE OCCURRING.
THE TONG DYNASTY AND
THE CLASSIC MAYA CIVILIZATION
COLLAPSED AT ALMOS EXACTLY THE SAME TIME
ON OPPOSITE SIDES
OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THERE WAS
THIS LARGE-SCALE EVEN THAT LED TO SYSTEMATIC
DRYING AND WARMING
THROUGHOUT BOTH
OF THESE REGIONS,
AND TWO GREA CIVILIZATIONS FELL.
THERE WAS A REALLY COHERENT,
VIVID PICTURE
ABOUT HOW HUMAN SOCIETY
AROUND THE WORLD
AND THROUGHOUT TIME
HAS BEEN INTERACTING
WITH THE CLIMATE.
ANYWHERE WE LOOK,
WE SEE THE SAME THING.
IT'S PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOS REPEATED FINDINGS
IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS
IN THE FIELD.
[SNYDER]
PAST SOCIETIES COULD OBSERVE
CROP FAILURE,
BUT THEY DIDN'T KNOW HOW
TO EXPLAIN IT.
WHAT GIVES US A CHANCE
IS THAT WE CAN OBSERVE
NOT ONLY LOCAL SYMPTOMS
OF A PROBLEM LIKE CROP FAILURE.
WE CAN ALSO OBSERVE
THE ENTIRE GLOBE
AND DRAW CONCLUSIONS.
THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER WE DECIDE
WE'RE GONNA DO THAT OR NOT.
TODAY I WANT TO SPEAK TO YOU
ABOUT THE NATIONAL
SECURITY RISKS
POSED BY A CHANGING CLIMATE.
JUST LAST MONTH,
THE ADMINISTRATION ISSUED
ITS 2015
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY.
THE STRATEGY
INCLUDES CLIMATE CHANGE
AS ONE OF EIGH TOP STRATEGIC RISKS
ALONG WITH
A CATASTROPHIC ATTACK
ON THE UNITED STATES SOIL
AND THE PROLIFERATION
OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
CLIMATE CHANGE, ONCE CONSIDERED
AN ISSUE FOR A DISTANT FUTURE,
HAS MOVED FIRMLY
INTO THE PRESENT.
WE SAW THIS
DRAMATICALLY HAPPEN HERE
IN THE UNITED STATES
WITH SUPER STORM SANDY.
THE STORM SURGE WENT OVER
A 12 1/2 FOOT WALL
PROTECTING A ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
AND IMMEDIATELY PLUNGED
LOWER MANHATTAN INTO DARKNESS.
WITHOUT ELECTRICITY,
OUR TRANSPORTATION
AND HEALTH SECTORS
BEGAN TO COLLAPSE.
WE CAN SEE FROM EVENTS
OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS
THE INCREASING NOT ONLY SEVERITY
OF NATURAL DISASTERS,
BUT THE UNPREDICTABILITY
OF THEIR CONSEQUENCES.
AS OUR WORLD BECOMES
MORE INTERCONNECTED,
AS DISASTERS HAPPEN IN DIFFEREN AND UNPREDICTABLE WAYS,
THEY CAUSE CASCADING IMPACTS
THROUGH OUR COMMUNITIES,
THROUGH OUR SOCIETIES,
THROUGH OUR INFRASTRUCTURE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WHAT WE CALL
CASCADING DISASTERS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO HOME.
WE'RE SEEING IN THE WES OF THE UNITED STATES
UNPRECEDENTED DROUGHT...
WHICH SPARKS FOREST FIRES.
AT THE SAME TIME,
WE MIGHT NEED TO BE RESPONDING
TO INCREASED ACTIVITY
IN THE ARCTIC.
WE MIGHT BE SEEING
SEA LEVEL RISE IN FLORIDA
AND ON THE EAST COAS INTERACT WITH MAJOR STORMS
THAT MIGHT BECOME MORE INTENSE.
AND AS WE GO FORWARD
AS THE CLIMATE CHANGES,
WE MIGHT SEE THOSE THINGS STAR TO HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY.
ARE WE READY TO DEAL
WITH MULTIPLE DISASTERS
AT THE SAME TIME
WITHIN THE UNITED STATES?
THAT'S AN OPEN QUESTION.
WE'VE ALSO GOT TO THINK ABOU THE SECURITY
OF OUR BASES AT HOME.
NORFOLK, VIRGINIA,
IS WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE U.S. NAVY'S ATLANTIC
COMBAT CAPABILITY IS BASED.
IT'S ALSO AT EXTREME RISK
OF SEA LEVEL RISE.
[SEN. TIM KAINE]
THE HAMPTON ROADS
REGION OF MY STATE
IS HOME TO THE LARGEST NAVAL
INSTALLATION IN THE WORLD,
NAVAL STATION NORFOLK.
STUDIES SHOW
THAT THE MAIN NORFOLK ROAD
INTO THE LARGEST NAVAL BASE
IN THE WORLD
BY 2040 WILL BE INUNDATED
BY DAILY TIDES,
NOT EVEN STORM SURGES.
[CHENEY]
THEY'RE ALREADY RAISING
THE LEVEL OF THE PIERS.
AT THE LEVEL THEY'RE AT,
THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE
TO SERVICE THE SHIPS
THAT ARE COMING IN.
THIS IS OUR LARGES NAVAL BASE IN THE WORLD.
[BREEN]
THERE'S SERIOUS
CONSIDERATIONS HERE.
THE WELFARE OF NORFOLK
HAS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
BECAUSE OF THE POWER
THAT IS PROJECTED
FROM THAT PLACE
AROUND THE WORLD.
[CHENEY]
IT'S NOT JUST THE CASE
WHERE YOU'LL DEPLOY THESE FORCES
IN A PARTICULAR CONFLICT,
BUT YOU'LL ALSO
HAVE TO DEPLOY THEM
TO RESPOND TO CATASTROPHIC
WEATHER EVENTS,
AND THE PRIME EXAMPLE
THAT I USE
IS TYPHOON HAIYAN
IN THE PHILIPPINES.
WE SENT SOME 14,000
SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AIRMEN,
AND MARINES IN RESPONSE
TO THAT CATASTROPHIC EVENT.
WE WERE THE ONLY COUNTRY
THAT'S CAPABLE OF DOING THAT,
OF DEPLOYING
THAT AMOUNT OF FORCES,
THAT AMOUNT OF DISTANCE.
[TITLEY]
AS THE SEA LEVELS RISE,
AS THE STORM SURGES INCREASE,
AS THE RAIN RATES INCREASE,
IT THEN BECOMES
A CAPACITY ISSUE.
HOW MUCH OF THAT CAN YOU DO
BEFORE YOU START IMPACTING
OTHER MISSIONS?
[BREEN]
EVERY TWO WEEKS
THE U.S. MILITARY
NOW IS GETTING
A DISASTER RESPONSE.
SO THOSE SAME SAILORS
LEAVE NORFOLK, VIRGINIA,
CHALLENGED BY CLIMATE CHANGE,
CHALLENGED BY SEA LEVEL RISE,
SAIL HALFWAY AROUND THE WORLD,
RESPOND TO A SERIES
OF DISASTERS
THAT ARE RELATED
TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
IN THE HEAVILY POPULATED
PACIFIC RIM,
AND ON THE WAY HOME THEY MAY
STEAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE EAS WHERE A CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA
AND NOW IN OTHER PARTS
OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO RAGE,
THAT IN MANY WAYS
WAS ACCELERATED BY A DROUGH THAT WAS WORSE BECAUSE
OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
SO THEY'RE SEEING
THE IMPACTS OF THIS
FROM THE TIME
THEY'D GET ON THE BOA AND GO ON THE DEPLOYMEN TO THE TIME THEY GET HOME.
WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO MAKE
AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICUL SERIES OF CHOICES.
WE'RE ALREADY
MAKING THOSE CHOICES
ABOUT WHERE TO GO
AND WHERE TO USE RESOURCES,
WHEN TO RESPOND
AND WHEN NOT TO.
[REPORTER]
80% OF NEW ORLEANS
UNDERWATER RIGHT NOW.
I SAID, "WE WAS PLANNING ON
LEAVING TOMORROW IF WE COULD."
THERE'S NO QUESTION
THAT COMMUNITIES
THAT HAVE FEWER RESOURCES
ARE GOING TO SUFFER MORE.
IF YOU LOOK IN THIS COUNTRY,
THE EFFECTS
ARE GOING TO BE UNEVEN.
SOME PLACES
ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE
MORE DRAMATIC EFFECTS
THAN OTHERS.
[REPORTER]
PEOPLE TRAPPED IN BUILDINGS
THAT HAVE COME DOWN
AROUND THEM.
THEY HAVE MADE DESPERATE CALLS
TO 911 ASKING FOR HELP,
ASKING FOR RESCUE,
BUT THE RESCUERS CAN'T GET OUT.
[REPORTER]
PEOPLE ARE NOW
LIVING IN PARKING GARAGES.
OTHERS PICKED UP
WHAT THEY COULD
AND MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
ON THE INTERSTATE,
REFUGEES IN THEIR OWN
HOME TOWN.
[WOMAN]
WE DON'T HAVE TRANSPORTATION.
I MEAN, WE LIVING
PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK.
IT AIN'T LIKE WE'RE JUST ABLE
TO GET UP AND JUST LEAVE.
[REPORTER]
THOSE PEOPLE WHO IGNORED
THE EVACUATION ORDERS
ARE SIMPLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAI AND RESCUE THEMSELVES.
[REPORTER]
THOUSANDS OF EVACUEES
SOUGHT REFUGE
INSIDE THE SUPER DOME,
ONLY TO BE SUBJECTED
TO AN UNSPEAKABLE
BREAKDOWN OF LAW AND ORDER.
[SNYDER]
WHAT KATRINA SHOWS IS
THAT CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS
CAN CREATE MASSIVE DISTRESS
ON A SCALE OF A WHOLE URBAN AREA
AND THAT THAT MASSIVE DISTRESS
CAN INVOLVE THE COLLAPSE
OF STATE STRUCTURES.
[MAN]
YOU WOULD NEVER, NEVER IMAGINE
WHAT YOU SAW IN THE CONVENTION
CENTER IN NEW ORLEANS.
THEY ARE JUST LEFT BEHIND.
THERE'S NOTHING OFFERED TO THEM
FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS.
THEY GOT CHILDREN OUT HERE!
THEY GOT PREGNAN WOMEN OUT HERE!
THEY WON'T EVEN BRING WATER!
THEY WON'T BRING FOOD!
YOU GOTTA GO STEAL WATER
TO DRINK TO SURVIVE OUT HERE.
[SNYDER]
ONE CAN TRY
TO BRACKET THAT OFF
AS SOME KIND
OF EXCEPTIONAL EVENT,
BUT IN FACT KATRINA IS
A PERFECTLY NORMAL DEMONSTRATION
OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.
DROP.
IF THE WEATHER
GETS TO THE POIN WHERE IT CAN BREAK DOWN
CITY GOVERNMENTS,
AND LET'S SAY IT HAPPENS
TO TWO OR THREE CITY GOVERNMENTS
AT THE SAME TIME
AND FEDERAL AUTHORITIES
ARE NOT ONLY UNWILLING
BUT UNABLE TO ASSIST,
THEN YOU GET HURRICANE KATRINA
ON A NATIONAL SCALE.
WE WANT HELP!
WE WANT HELP!
WE WANT HELP!
[TITLEY]
WE'VE BUILT SOCIETY
ON THIS IMPLICIT ASSUMPTION
OF CLIMATE STABILITY.
WITHIN BOUNDS, WE KNOW
WHAT WE'RE GONNA GET.
WE KNOW WHEN TO PLANT.
WE KNOW ABOUT HOW MUCH
RAIN IS GONNA COME.
BECAUSE WE BUILT OUR SOCIETY
ON THIS CLIMATE STABILITY
AND THAT STABILITY IS CHANGING,
ALL THESE THINGS
THAT WE TAKE FOR GRANTED,
THEY'RE NO JUST GIVENS ANYMORE.
[REPORTER]
ACROSS THE SAHEL,
THE CROPS HAVE FAILED.
HUNGER IS STALKING
TENS OF MILLIONS.
[REPORTER]
PEOPLE ARE ABANDONING
THEIR LIVESTOCK
AND MOVING TO WHEREVER
THEY CAN FIND WATER.
[REPORTER]
RELIEF WORKERS FEAR IF MORE
HELP DOESN'T COME SOON,
MILLIONS WILL STARVE.
[SEAGER]
THE SAHEL IS
THE SEMI-ARID REGION
THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALL THE WAY OVER TO ETHIOPIA.
IT'S THE TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN THE SAHARA
AND THE MORE HUMID,
FORESTED CONDITIONS
FURTHER SOUTH.
THAT IS A VERY
DROUGHT-PRONE REGION.
THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE
MAKING THEIR LIVELIHOOD
OFF AGRICULTURE,
AND WHENEVER
THERE ARE DROUGHTS,
IT LEADS A LOT OF PEOPLE
TO MIGRATE.
THE SAHEL IS ALREADY
A MAJOR CONFLICT ZONE,
BOTH WITH ISLAMIC MILITANTS
AND ALSO NATIONALISTS.
[PARENTI]
THIS IS THE HEAR OF THE PROBLEM IN MANY WAYS.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ARRIVES IN A WORLD
THAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN DESTABILIZED.
[REPORTER]
DARFUR, THE WORLD'S WORS HUMANITARIAN CRISIS.
MORE THAN 2 MILLION PEOPLE
FORCED TO FLEE THEIR HOMES
IN WHAT'S WIDELY PORTRAYED
AS AN ETHNIC CONFLICT.
BUT CLIMATIC CHANGES
MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR.
THIS IS A REGION
WHERE WATER'S GETTING SCARCER
AND ARABLE LAND SHRINKING,
PITTING ARAB NOMADIC GRAZERS
AGAINST THE PREDOMINANTLY
BLACK FARMERS.
A LOT OF THE VIOLENCE
THAT IS NOW ACCELERATED
BY CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTUALLY HAS ITS ROOTS IN THESE
OLDER, DEEPER CONFLICTS.
THE DROUGHT EXACERBATED
EXISTING SOCIETAL CLEAVAGES.
THERE IT WAS MUSLIM
AND CHRISTIAN.
IT WAS THE HERDERS
VERSUS THE AGRARIANS.
IN EVERY CASE, CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTED AS
A THREAT MULTIPLIER.
[MAN WHIMPERING]
[REPORTER]
THE NUMBERS FROM DARFUR
ARE STAGGERING.
SINCE 2003, AN ESTIMATED 400,000
PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED.
ANOTHER 2 1/2 MILLION HAVE BEEN
FORCED INTO REFUGEE CAMPS
IN NEIGHBORING
COUNTRIES LIKE CHAD.
[BABY CRYING]
[REPORTER]
DROUGHT AND HUNGER HAVE
MADE COMMUNITIES VULNERABLE.
COUPS AND REBELLIONS
HAVE MADE IT UNSTABLE.
THIS FRAGILE STATE
IS NOW THREATENED
BY POVERTY AND NEGLECT.
[PARENTI]
CLIMATE CHANGE UNFOLDS
ON THE LANDSCAPE,
MAKING THEIR LIVES HARDER.
BUT THE POVERTY
THAT WAS ORIGINALLY THERE
MAKES THE RESPONSE
TO CLIMATE CHANGE WORSE.
[REPORTER]
A STAGGERING 30 MILLION PEOPLE
ARE THOUGHT TO SURVIVE
ON LAKE CHAD'S ECOSYSTEM.
BUT WHAT WAS ONCE
OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST LAKES
HAS IN JUST 40 YEARS
SHRUNK BY 90%.
[REPORTER]
LAKE CHAD, WHERE
BOKO HARAM FIGHTERS
HAVE LAUNCHED RECENT ATTACKS.
[KING]
WATER SCARCITY HAS CAUSED
MIGRATION AND INSTABILITY
WHICH BOKO HARAM HAS BEEN ABLE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF.
WHERE THERE IS ALREADY
INSTABILITY,
EXTREMISTS THRIVE.
[REPORTER]
MORE THAN A MILLION PEOPLE
HAVE BEEN FORCED TO FLEE FROM
BOKO HARAM'S WAVE OF TERROR.
[BREEN]
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MODELING
THAT'S BEING DONE NOW
FOR NORTH AFRICA,
WE SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE DRYING.
WE SEE SIGNIFICAN PRECIPITATION DECLINE
WELL BEYOND WHAT IT IS NOW.
[SNYDER]
AFRICA'S A PLACE WHERE
VERY LARGE NUMBERS
OF PEOPLE NEED MORE LAND.
AT THE SAME TIME, SOMETHING LIKE
HALF OF THE UNUSED ARABLE LAND
IN THE WORLD
IS IN AFRICA.
[REPORTER]
IS COLONIALISM TAKING ROO IN AFRICA ONCE AGAIN?
SOME OF THE COUNTRIES
ON THAT CONTINEN MAY BE THE POORES IN THE WORLD,
BUT THE LUSH FARMLANDS
ARE THE ENVY
OF RICHER NATIONS
WITH INFERTILE SOIL.
[SNYDER]
WE'VE ALREADY SEEN
IN THE NOT-SO-DISTANT PAS HOW CHINA,
WHEN THERE'S A DROUGHT,
WILL PANIC-BUY
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES.
WHAT IF THINGS WERE MUCH WORSE?
WHAT IF THAT SAME COUNTRY
THOUGHT THAT IT DOESN' JUST NEED TO PANIC-BUY,
IT NEEDS TO BUY OR LEASE
VAST TERRITORIES?
THIS IS A SCENARIO
WHICH COULD UNFOLD GRADUALLY
WITHOUT ANYONE
REALLY SEEING IT COMING.
SLOWLY, SLOWLY, SLOWLY,
CHINA CONTROLS,
AT LEAST LEGALLY,
AN AWFUL LOT OF TERRITORY
BEYOND ITS BORDERS.
WHETHER ONE WANTS TO MORALIZE
AND CALL THAT A LAND GRAB,
YOU CAN GET A SITUATION
WHERE THE LOCAL PEOPLE
COULD HAVE ANOTHER IDEA.
[SNYDER]
IF YOU'RE CHINESE AUTHORITIES,
YOU WOULD RATHER HAVE
INSTABILITY IN AFRICA
THAN INSTABILITY AT HOME.
WE TAKE OUR LIFESTYLE
AS BEING A FIXED POIN AND THEN IF ANYTHING'S
GOING TO CHANGE,
IT'S GONNA BE SOMETHING ELSE,
PREFERABLY SOMETHING FAR AWAY.
IN THE UNITED STATES,
ALTHOUGH WE'VE DONE THE MOS TO PROMOTE GLOBAL WARMING,
WE'RE GONNA GET HIT BY I AFTER OTHER PEOPLE
ARE GONNA BE HIT BY IT.
IN ADVANCED SOCIETIES,
WE'RE VERY VULNERABLE
TO CONFUSING LIFESTYLE
WITH LIFE ITSELF.
[CROWD SHOUTING]
[REPORTER]
AS THE SITUATION IN SYRIA
HAS DETERIORATED SHARPLY,
JORDAN'S ZA'ATARI CAMP
FOR SYRIAN REFUGEES
IS NOW THE SIZE OF A CITY.
[BREEN]
AFTER LEAVING THE ARMY
I WORKED
WITH REFUGEES ON THE GROUND
IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
IN SYRIA, JORDAN, LEBANON,
HAVING SEEN WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN MILLIONS OF PEOPLE
UPROOT AND LEAVE A PLACE,
THE IMPACT IT HAS ON THEM,
THE IMPACT IT HAS ON THE COUNTRY
THEY'VE TAKEN REFUGE IN,
THIS HAS MAJOR CONSEQUENCES.
THAT ON A MASSIVE SCALE WHERE
WHOLE NATIONS ARE ON THE MOVE
MAY BE WHAT WE'RE FACING
IN CERTAIN CLIMATE SCENARIOS.
[REPORTER]
THE WORLD IS IN THE GRIPS
OF THE WORST REFUGEE CRISIS
SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WAR.
THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THOSE REFUGEES
ARE HOSTED BY SOME OF
THE WORLD'S POOREST COUNTRIES.
[REPORTER]
THIS CAMP IS JUST OVERWHELMED
BY THE AMOUN OF PEOPLE COMING HERE.
[REPORTER]
FOR THE REFUGEES, IT'S BEEN
A LITANY OF KILLINGS,
KIDNAPPINGS, HUNGER,
AND ECONOMIC CHAOS.
[REPORTER]
THE U.N.'S REFUGEE AGENCY
ESTIMATES THE CURRENT TOTAL
AT ALMOST 60 MILLION.
SHOCKINGLY, HALF ARE CHILDREN.
[ANTONIO GUTERRES]
WE DON'T HAVE THE RESOURCES
TO SUPPORT ALL THE VICTIMS
OF CONFLICT AROUND THE WORLD.
WE ARE NO LONGER
ABLE TO PICK UP THE PIECES.
[FEMIA]
THE LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD
IS DEFINITELY
A HUMAN SECURITY RISK.
IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS,
IT CAN BECOME AN INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY RISK.
[REPORTER]
A DESPERATE SEARCH FOR NEARLY
1,000 PEOPLE FEARED DEAD
AFTER A SHIP
PACKED WITH MIGRANTS
CAPSIZED IN
THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA.
IT IS THE LATEST IN A STRING
OF DEADLY MIGRANT BOAT SINKINGS.
[REPORTER]
REFUGEES FLEEING ISIS
AND OTHER MILITANTS
TRYING DESPERATELY
TO CROSS INTO EUROPE.
[REPORTER]
ITALY'S COAST GUARD AND NAVY
RESCUED 11,000 PEOPLE
FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN
IN THE LAST WEEK ALONE.
EUROPE IS SUFFERING
A MAJOR MIGRATION CRISIS
BECAUSE OF
THE CONFLICTS IN SYRIA,
THE WIDER MIDDLE EAST,
AND EAST AFRICA.
[REPORTER]
THEY'VE BEEN ARRIVING
BY THE BOATLOADS
ON EUROPEAN SHORES DAILY.
NOW THE HEAD OF THE U.N.'S
REFUGEE AGENCY
IS CALLING THE MIGRANT CRISIS
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
TOTAL CHAOS.
[CHENEY]
THEY'RE WILLING
TO RISK THEIR LIVES
AND THEIR FAMILY LIVES
TO GET TO EUROPE.
THAT'S PRETTY DESPERATE.
[SHOUTING]
[REPORTER]
IT'S A REFUGEE CRISIS
WITH NO PRECEDEN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION'S HISTORY.
[REPORTER]
AS THEIR NUMBERS SPIRAL
ALONG WITH THE DEATH COUNT,
EUROPE IS UNDER
ACUTE PRESSURE TO ACT.
[REPORTER]
TENSIONS ARE AT BOILING POINT.
[REPORTER]
MACEDONIA CLOSED ITS BORDER.
SPECIAL FORCES FIRED
STUN GRENADES INTO THE CROWD.
[REPORTER]
THE E.U.'s RESPONSE
HAS BEEN CRITICIZED
AS AT BES INCOHERENT AND AT WORS CALLOUS AND INHUMANE.
[MAN]
WE'RE GONNA PUT IN MORE FENCING,
MORE RESOURCES.
[PARENTI]
THE POLITICS
OF THE ARMED LIFEBOA REFERS TO AN ACKNOWLEDGEMEN THAT, YES, THERE IS A CRISIS,
BUT, NO, WE ARE NO ALL IN IT TOGETHER.
WE HAVE TO KEEP THE VICTIMS
OF THIS CRISIS OU SO WE CAN CARRY ON AS BEFORE
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WALL.
[SULLIVAN]
WHAT'S ALARMING
IS THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE
IN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES
TAKING THE RISKS THEY DO.
[WOMAN SPEAKING
IN NATIVE LANGUAGE]
PEOPLE IN COUNTRIES
WHERE INSTABILITY WAS REIGNING,
THEY FEEL THAT THEY HAVE
NO OTHER CHOICE.
[REPORTER]
WITH THE CONTINUING TURMOIL
IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
THE NUMBER OF DESPERATE PEOPLE
WILLING TO RISK EVERYTHING
IS EXPECTED TO RISE.
OKAY?
[TITLEY]
WHEN WE REALLY STEP BACK,
PEOPLE ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME.
WE WANT ADEQUATE FOOD,
ADEQUATE SHELTER,
SAFE WATER.
IF YOU HAVE LARGE NUMBERS
OF DISPLACED PEOPLE
AND THEIR NEEDS
ARE NOT BEING MET,
THEN THIS BECOMES
A POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY.
[COUGHING]
[MAN SPEAKS NATIVE LANGUAGE]
[PARENTI]
WHO IS A CLIMATE REFUGEE
AND WHO IS AN ECONOMIC REFUGEE?
IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY.
THE TWO THINGS
ARE BOUND UP TOGETHER.
MOST CLIMATE REFUGEES
ARE NOT DISPLACED
SO CLEARLY BY CLIMATE CHANGE.
RATHER IT'S A MIX OF FORCES
THAT DRIVES THEM
OFF THE LAND.
[KING]
UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW,
THERE IS NO STATUS
OF CLIMATE REFUGEE.
PART OF THIS IS POLITICAL.
BECAUSE IF THERE WERE,
THEN IT WOULD COMPEL NATIONS
TO ACCEPT CLIMATE MIGRANTS
AS ASYLEES.
[SNYDER]
THE LONGER
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE GOES ON,
THE MORE THAT WE FEEL IT,
THE MORE
THAT WE EXPERIENCE IT,
PEOPLE ARE GONNA
WANNA COME NORTH.
THE ONLY BORDER WHICH IS REAL
IS THE ATMOSPHERE.
EVERYTHING ELSE IS PERMEABLE.
[FUERTH]
LINEAR THINKING SAYS
THAT IF YOU HAVE
A CHANGE OF A CERTAIN MAGNITUDE
IN A SYSTEM,
YOU CAN PREDICT THE CHANGE
IN ITS OUTPUT.
NON-LINEARITY SAYS
RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES
CAN LEAD TO VERY LARGE
AND UNPREDICTABLE CIRCUMSTANCES
ON THE OUTPUT SIDE.
LET'S SUPPOSE THAT THE RATE
OF WHICH THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
IS NOT LINEAR BUT IS ON A CURVE
THAT'S GETTING VERY STEEP.
TAKE THE RATE AT WHICH
ARCTIC ICE IS MELTING,
THE RATE AT WHICH
THE GLACIERS ARE RETREATING.
AT THE BEGINNING
OF THESE PROCESSES,
YOU CREATE A GRAPH.
IF I START MEASURING
OVER TIME,
I KEEP ON DISCOVERING
THINGS ARE HAPPENING FASTER
THAN YOU MIGHT EXPECT.
AND ALL OF
OUR OLD PROJECTIONS
TURN OUT TO BE
EXCESSIVELY CONSERVATIVE.
I WORRY ABOUT A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE RATE AT WHICH
WE SET OU TO DEAL WITH THESE THINGS
AND THE RATE AT WHICH
THEY ARE OCCURRING.
WHAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGH IS A PROBLEM
OF COMPOUNDING RISK.
A GOOD EXAMPLE IS BANGLADESH.
[MUNIR MUNIRUZZAMAN]
BANGLADESH IS PROBABLY THE
GROUND ZERO OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
THE IMPACTS ARE GOING
TO BE MORE SEVERE
IN BANGLADESH
THAN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES
WHERE THEY HAVE
SMALLER POPULATION SIZE.
[BREEN]
IN A CLIMATE SCENARIO
WHERE SEA LEVEL RISE OCCURS,
ESPECIALLY
IF IT OCCURS RAPIDLY,
THERE'S A REAL RISK
THAT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE BANGLADESHI POPULATION
IS GONNA HAVE TO MOVE.
[MUNIRUZZAMAN]
THE SEA LEVEL WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE IN THE COMING YEARS,
BECAUSE THERE IS MELTING
AT A FASTER RATE THAN EVER.
IF THERE IS A ONE-METER
SEA LEVEL RISE,
BANGLADESH WILL LOSE ABOU 20% OF ITS LAND MASS.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE
A VERY LARGE
CLIMATE REFUGEE POPULATION.
RESEARCHERS HAVE
ESTIMATED THE NUMBERS
TO BE ABOUT 30 MILLION.
THIS IS A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
OF EPIC PROPORTIONS.
WHERE ARE THESE REFUGEES
GOING TO GO?
[MUNIRUZZAMAN]
INDIA HAS ALREADY
UNILATERALLY FENCED BANGLADESH
ON ALL THREE SIDES.
[BREEN]
A TEN-FOOT, DOUBLE-SIDED,
RAZOR-WIRE-TOPPED, WHAT MAY BE
THE WORLD'S FIRST CLIMATE FENCE.
[REPORTER]
IT'S INSPIRED BY ISRAEL'S WALL
IN THE WEST BANK,
AND IT'S MANNED BY 80,000
INDIAN GUARDS.
DEATH CAN BE THE PENALTY
FOR CROSSING I OR EVEN GOING NEAR IT,
WITH HUNDREDS OF UNARMED
VILLAGERS KILLED
ALONG WHAT IS NOW
ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS
FRONTIERS IN THE WORLD.
[BREEN]
THERE ARE OTHER REASONS
FOR INDIA TO BUILD THAT FENCE,
BUT PROBABLY THE MOST PRESSING
AND STRATEGIC REASON
IS TO FORESTALL
THAT CLIMATE MIGRATION.
[MUNIRUZZAMAN]
NO FACTOR CAN BE EXCLUDED
FROM THE IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
WE HAVE GOT TO SEE
THE CONSEQUENCES
OF THE CONSEQUENCES.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE
MULTIPLE STRESSORS
COMING AT ONE POIN AT ONE TIME.
STRESS ON THE WATER SECTOR,
FOOD SECTOR,
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE,
THAT COULD LEAD
TO A STATE COLLAPSE.
IT WILL BE A PROBLEM
OF THE MAGNITUDE
THAT WILL DESTABILIZE
NOT ONLY BANGLADESH,
BUT IT WILL SEVERELY IMPAC ON INTERNATIONAL STABILITY,
HAVING CONSEQUENCES
BEYOND IMAGINATION.
WE DON'T NOW HAVE THE LUXURY,
AND WE PROBABLY NEVER WILL,
OF SORT OF ISOLATING
ONE DRIVER OF A SITUATION
AND SAYING, "OKAY, LET'S SOLVE
FOR THAT DRIVER."
WE'RE ALWAYS GOING TO BE
DEALING WITH A LAYER CAKE
OF INTER-CONNECTED PROBLEMS.
SO IF YOU HAVE
A CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIO
THAT'S SUFFICIENT TO RAISE
THE SEA LEVEL IN BANGLADESH,
WHAT IS THA TEMPERATURE SPIKE DOING
TO THE HIMALAYAN ICE CAPS
THAT SUPPLY
THE ANNUAL WATER CYCLE
FOR MOST OF
THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
IN THE ASIAN-PACIFIC REGION?
SO NOW YOU'VE GOT POTENTIAL
DROUGHT AND FOOD SCARCITY
IN ONE AREA
THAT'S INTERSECTING
WITH FLOODING AND MASSIVE
REFUGEE FLOWS IN THE OTHER AREA.
WHAT'S THE POLITICAL
SITUATION WHEN IT HAPPENS?
IF INDIA AND CHINA
ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE
A BORDER DISPUTE
DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME,
THAT BORDER DISPUTE JUST GO A LOT MORE SERIOUS.
THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT COULD PLACE
MASSIVE STRESS
ON THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM.
IT'S THESE COMPOUNDING
RISK FACTORS,
THESE COMPOUNDING DYNAMICS
THAT I THINK OUGH TO REALLY CONCERN US.
[FUERTH]
IF YOU LOOK AT ISSUES
OF WATER FLOW
FROM THE HIMALAYAN PLATEAU,
THERE ARE COUNTRIES THA ARE ON THE RECEIVING END
OF THOSE FLOWS OF WATER
THAT ARE NUCLEAR-ARMED.
IF THE SUPPLY OF WATER
BECOMES INCREASINGLY TIGHT,
THEN IF SOMEBODY DECIDES
TO BUILD A DAM ON THEIR SIDE,
THAT CAN LOOK TO SOMEBODY
ON THE LOSING END
LIKE AN ACT OF WAR.
THE RISK OF ANY CONFLIC IN THE MODERN WORLD
IS MAGNIFIED BY THE FAC THAT AT THE END
OF A CHAIN OF ESCALATION,
YOU MIGHT ARRIVE AT COUNTRIES
THAT HAVE WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
[BREEN]
OUR ENTIRE WAY OF LIFE
IS BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS.
EVERYTHING THAT YOU USE
AND TOUCH IN YOUR DAILY LIFE
IN THIS
HIGHLY-ADVANCED ECONOMY
IS MOVED TO YOU
USING THAT SINGLE SOURCE.
THERE'S ABSOLUTELY A LINK
BETWEEN THE WAY WE USE ENERGY
AND OUR SECURITY.
OIL IS A GLOBALLY-TRADED
COMMODITY.
EVENTS AROUND THE WORLD
IMPACT THE SUPPLY
AND THE PRICE HERE AT HOME.
WHEN GEO-POLITICAL
DECISIONS ARE MADE,
THE PRICE CAN GO DOWN,
THE PRICE CAN GO UP.
MANY OF OUR RELATIONSHIPS
WITH AUTOCRACIES
HAVE BEEN BASED IN PAR ON ASSURING THE SUPPLY
OF FOSSIL FUELS.
WE SPEND A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF TIME
KEEPING THA GLOBAL SUPPLY FLOWING,
PROTECTING IT.
[REPORTER]
THE THREATS
ARE BEING RAMPED UP
OVER A VITAL
OIL SHIPPING ROUTE
WHICH IRAN
IS THREATENING TO BLOCK.
[REPORTER]
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
LINKS THE OIL-PRODUCING STATES
OF BAHRAIN, KUWAIT,
QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA,
AND THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.
THAT'S ABOUT 40% OF THE WORLD'S
OIL THAT'S SHIPPED.
IT'S A MAJOR ARTERY.
WE SPEND $85 BILLION A YEAR
DEFENDING STRATEGIC
CHOKE POINTS,
PLACES LIKE THE STRAITS
OF HARMUZ NEAR IRAN
OR THE STRAITS OF MALACCA
IN THE HEAVILY-CONTESTED
SOUTH CHINA SEA.
REAL DISRUPTION WOULD HAVE
CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES
FOR OUR ECONOMY.
ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES
CREATES THE ARENA FOR CONFLIC AND DEFINING WHAT THE PLAYING
FIELD WILL LOOK LIKE.
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS IN THAT MIX OF CAUSES.
IN SOME CASES,
IT'S CHANGING THE MAP ITSELF.
[REPORTER]
MELTING ICE CAPS IN THE ARCTIC
HAVE IGNITED
A MILITARY BUILDUP.
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
IS BELIEVED TO CONTAIN 30%
OF THE WORLD'S
UNDISCOVERED NATURAL GAS
AND 15% OF ITS OIL.
AS THE ICE MELTS,
IT OPENS UP RESOURCES.
IT OPENS UP TRADE ROUTES.
IT OPENS UP LAND CLAIMS
THAT COULD BECOME
MORE CONTENTIOUS.
[REPORTER]
RUSSIA IS MAKING
A VERY BOLD MOVE,
PLANTING ITS FLAG
ON THE ARCTIC SEA FLOOR.
[REPORTER]
RUSSIA IS HOLDING
MILITARY EXERCISES
INVOLVING TENS
OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS.
[REPORTER]
IT'S DISPUTED TERRITORY WITH
THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA.
[REPORTER]
MANY FEAR A 21st-CENTURY
COLD WAR IN THE FROZEN WATERS.
[MAN]
I'M HONORED TO WELCOME THREE
FORMER SECRETARIES OF STATE.
[GEORGE SCHULTZ]
WE'VE STARTED A PROJEC ON THE ARCTIC.
THERE'S A NEW OCEAN
BEING CREATED THERE.
THAT HASN'T HAPPENED
SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE.
THERE ARE BIG MELTS ALL OVER
THE WORLD TAKING PLACE.
THE CLIMATE'S CHANGING.
AND THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES.
[BREEN]
IF YOU SAY THERE'S NO CONNECTION
BETWEEN SECURITY AND CLIMATE,
OR BETWEEN OIL
AND OUR NATIONAL SECURITY,
IF YOU SERVED
IN THESE CONFLICTS,
IF YOU FOUGHT A WAR
IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
IF YOU FOUGH IN A BURNING OIL FIELD,
YOU MIGH HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEW.
[MAN ON RADIO]
CONVOY BE ADVISED,
BORDER PATROL VEHICLE
ON THE LEFT-HAND SIDE.
MY FIRST DEPLOYMENT,
I WAS A YOUNG LIEUTENAN WITH AN INFANTRY UNIT IN IRAQ
SOUTH OF BAGHDAD
IN AN AREA THAT WAS SATURATED
WITH IMPROVISED
EXPLOSIVE DEVICES.
IT CAME TO BE KNOWN
AS THE TRIANGLE OF DEATH.
THAT AMERICAN MILITARY UNI ON THE GROUND
IN IRAQ OR AFGHANISTAN
HAS GOT TO RELY
ON A FUEL SUPPLY
THAT COMES A GREAT DISTANCE
AT RISK AND COS TO REACH THEM.
EVERY DAY,
A LOGISTICS CONVOY
WOULD HAVE TO LEAVE
BAGHDAD AIRPOR AND DRIVE TO OUR
FORWARD OPERATING BASE.
WE WERE TAKING THE FUEL FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY'S DELIVERY,
PUTTING IT IN A BUNCH
OF BRADLEY FIGHTING VEHICLES,
GOING OUT TO ESCORT THE CONVOY
IN WITH THAT FUEL,
USING A LOT OF THE FUEL,
AND THEN PUTTING
THE NEXT DAY'S FUEL
RIGHT IN THE BRADLEYS
TO DO ALL OVER AGAIN.
WE TOOK THIS HIGHLY
CAPABLE COMBAT FORCE
AND TURNED IT INTO, BASICALLY,
A SELF-LICKING ICE CREAM CONE.
[MAN ON RADIO]
...IS HIT.
...IS DOWN.
[BREEN]
ALMOST EVERY DAY,
THAT CONVOY WAS ATTACKED.
[MAN]
NEXT, WE'RE GOING TO HEAR
FROM MR. MICHAEL BREEN,
WHO IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
OF THE TRUMAN
NATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT.
-WELCOME, SIR.
-THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN.
CHAIRMAN MARQUIS,
RANKING MEMBER BRASSO,
THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY
TO TESTIFY TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WE FIND OURSELVES
IN A CONSIDERABLY
BETTER POSITION
WITH REGARD TO ENERGY
THAN THAT OF SEVERAL YEARS AGO,
THE LACK OF DIVERSIFIED
ENERGY SOURCES AROUND THE WORLD
CONTINUES TO CREATE
VULNERABILITIES
FOR THE UNITED STATES
AND OUR ALLIES.
IN ADDITION,
CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES OUR CURREN ENERGY SYSTEM UNSUSTAINABLE,
CREATING CASCADING RISKS
AND IMPACTS AROUND THE GLOBE.
THE U.S. SHOULD PLACE
GREATER EMPHASIS
ON EFFICIENCY ALONG
WITH THE DEVELOPMEN OF RENEWABLE SOURCES,
AND MORE RESILIEN DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS.
THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
IS ONE OF THE LARGES CUSTOMERS IN THE WORLD,
SO WHEN THE DEPARTMEN INVESTS IN TECHNOLOGIES
THAT ARE STILL VERY IMMATURE,
THEY'RE TAKING
A VERY LONG VIEW
OF WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO NEED
IN THE FUTURE.
THOSE LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
DO HAVE A GREAT BENEFI OFTEN FOR
THE CIVILIAN ECONOMY.
IF THE MILITARY HAD SETTLED
ON COMPASS TECHNOLOGY
AS THE PERFECT ANSWER
TO NAVIGATION,
WE NEVER WOULD HAVE HAD GPS.
SO TO STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE,
WE HAVE TO KEEP INVESTING.
[RAY MABUS]
AND ONE OF THE THINGS
I GET ASKED IN HEARINGS
DEFENDING THE BUDGET IS,
"IS THIS THE RIGHT TIME
TO BE INVESTING IN STUFF
LIKE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY?"
AND MY RESPONSE IS,
"WE CAN'T AFFORD NOT TO NOW."
[REPORTER]
SECRETARY OF THE NAVY
RAY MABUS TOOK PAR IN SIGNING A CONTRAC FOR THE LARGEST BIOFUEL
PURCHASE IN GOVERNMENT HISTORY.
[REPORTER]
IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS,
THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY
PLANS TO GENERATE
ALL OF THEIR OWN ELECTRICITY
THROUGH RENEWABLE SOURCES.
[BREEN]
I'M ENCOURAGED THAT THE MILITARY
IS CONTINUING TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE DEVELOPMEN OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES,
BUT I DON'T THINK WE CAN
BE COMPLACENT ABOUT THIS.
OUR MILITARY IN THE U.S.,
EVERY MILITARY,
IS ULTIMATELY IN THE BUSINESS
OF PREVENTING, HOPEFULLY,
OR PROSECUTING AND WINNING WARS,
AND WAR IS A DESTRUCTIVE
HUMAN ACTIVITY.
MILITARIES ARE NO GONNA SOLVE THIS FOR US.
AN ARMORED DIVISION IS NO GONNA DEFEAT CLIMATE CHANGE.
[BURKE]
YOU DON'T WANNA TURN
TO YOUR MILITARY
TO SOLVE WHAT ARE REALLY
CIVIL SOCIETY PROBLEMS.
THAT'S A DANGEROUS GAME.
THEY DO NEED TO UNDERSTAND
HOW IT ALL FITS TOGETHER,
BECAUSE THAT'S GONNA AFFEC WHAT THEY NEED TO BE READY FOR,
BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN
IT'S THEIR MISSION TO FIX IT.
[FEMIA]
WHAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGH IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT WE'LL HAVE A WORLD
WHERE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE SO DIRE AND SO
POTENTIALLY UNMANAGEABLE
THAT GOVERNMENTS
START ACTING IN WAYS
THAT ARE AUTHORITARIAN.
THAT'S A WORLD
THAT I DON'T WANNA LIVE IN.
THAT'S A WORLD I DON'T WAN MY CHILDREN TO LIVE IN.
AND IT'S A WORLD
THAT WE SEE IN THESE SCENARIOS
THAT THE UNITED STATES
MILITARY PRODUCES.
[RONALD REAGAN]
WE'RE AT WAR WITH THE MOS DANGEROUS ENEMY
THAT HAS EVER FACED MANKIND
IN HIS LONG CLIMB
FROM THE SWAMP TO THE STARS,
AND IT'S BEEN SAID
IF WE LOSE THAT WAR
AND IN SO DOING LOSE
THIS WAY OF FREEDOM OF OURS,
HISTORY WILL RECORD
WITH THE GREATEST ASTONISHMEN THAT THOSE
WHO HAD THE MOST TO LOSE
DID THE LEAS TO PREVENT ITS HAPPENING.
[GOODMAN]
WE SPENT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
OF OUR GDP DURING THE COLD WAR
TO REDUCE THE THREA OF NUCLEAR ATTACK,
WHICH IS LOW PROBABILITY
BUT VERY HIGH CONSEQUENCE.
NOW WE FACE RISKS
FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
THAT ARE ARGUABLY AS SEVERE
AND OF HIGHER PROBABILITY,
AND YET THERE IS
IN SOME QUARTERS
A RELUCTANCE TO FACE UP
TO THE CHALLENGES
AND BUILD A RESILIENT SOCIETY.
[GUNS FIRING]
WHETHER IT'S THREATS
FROM NUCLEAR WEAPONS
OR INTERNATIONAL
TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS,
ANY PERCENTAGE
IS UNACCEPTABLE.
WHEN YOU THINK
ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A RISK-MANAGEMENT ISSUE,
THEN ALL OF THE ACTIONS
WE NEED TO TAKE
ARE GOING TO BE
ON THE TABLE.
IF WE DON'T, THEN WE'RE
GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE
SOME VERY, VERY
DIFFICULT CHOICES.
[BREEN]
WHERE CAN WE MAKE OURSELVES
MORE RESILIENT?
WHERE CAN WE MAKE OURSELVES
MORE PREPARED?
WHERE CAN WE ACT NOW
IN ORDER TO MITIGATE
THE CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS
THAT WERE MADE SINCE
THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?
THERE'S A DIFFICULT TRUTH
WE'VE GOTTA FACE HERE.
AS WE'VE SEEN RISING
AWARENESS OF THE PROBLEM,
WE'VE CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE
OUR CONTRIBUTION.
REVERSING THAT MAY BE
THE MOST DIFFICUL COLLECTIVE-ACTION PROBLEM
WE'VE EVER FACED.
[MADELEINE ALBRIGHT]
I DO THINK THE BIGGEST THREA IS CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ITS NATIONAL
SECURITY ASPECTS.
OUR PROBLEM IS THA NOT EVERYTHING CAN BE
HANDLED MILITARILY,
AND THAT WE ALSO HAVE
A SHORT ATTENTION SPAN.
THESE ARE VERY
LONG-TERM PROBLEMS.
[FEMIA]
THIS IS A WHOLE
OF SOCIETY ISSUE.
WE HAVE TO ADDRESS I IN ALL OF OUR INSTITUTIONS.
THAT MEANS
ALL ASPECTS OF GOVERNMENT.
IT MEANS THE RESOURCES
AND THE POLITICAL WILL.
[ALBRIGHT]
IT IS A MATTER OF COOPERATING,
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THESE ISSUES,
IT WILL REQUIRE
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP
WITHIN A SYSTEM THAT OTHER
COUNTRIES PLAY A PART IN.
[CHENEY]
WE HAVE TO LEAD.
THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES,
WE'RE THE ONES WHO ARE DOING
THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE POLLUTING HERE IN THE WORLD.
WE GOTTA STEP UP TO THIS.
EVERY ASPECT OF NATIONAL
SECURITY IS ABOUT MANAGING RISK.
OUR POLITICIANS IN MY OPINION
SHOULD TAKE A LESSON
FROM THE MILITARY.
THEY SHOULD START PRUDEN ACTION TO REDUCE EMISSIONS.
[TITLEY]
CONGRESS WON'T LEAD
ON THIS ISSUE,
BUT THEY CAN BE LED.
THAT'S WHY
I CONTINUE TO GO AROUND
AND TALK ABOUT THIS ISSUE.
WE NEED TO FIND
POLICY SOLUTIONS
THAT CAN DEAL WITH IT.
[BURKE]
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I FIND
PERSONALLY REALLY DISTRESSING,
HAVING WORKED
FOR REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS,
IS THAT SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE
A POINT OF CONVERGENCE
HAS BECOME SO DIVISIVE.
THIS POLARIZATION
HAS ALLOWED US
TO NOT REALLY ADDRESS
WHAT WE REALLY NEED TO DO.
RESILIENCE AND IMPROVING
OUR ABILITY TO RESPOND,
THOSE ARE THE LEAS THAT WE SHOULD BE DOING.
THAT'S, IN MILITARY PARLANCE,
THE FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE.
[BREEN]
ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS
THEY EVER TAUGHT ME
AS A COMBAT LEADER
WAS CHOOSING TO DO NOTHING
IS A CHOICE.
INACTION IS AS MUCH
OF A DECISION
AS ANY OTHER
COURSE OF ACTION,
AND IT CARRIES
THOSE CONSEQUENCES.
[FUERTH]
IT'S A VERY DANGEROUS THING
TO DECIDE THAT THERE IS ONE
AND ONLY ONE LINE OF EVENTS
HEADING INTO THE FUTURE
AND ONE AND ONLY ONE BES RESPONSE FOR DEALING WITH THAT.
WHEN SYSTEMS BECOME INVESTED
IN AN OLD WAY OF THINKING,
THERE IS A MOMEN WHEN THOSE STRUCTURES
START TO BREAK DOWN.
THE SYSTEM RESISTS
THE IDEA OF CHANGE
TO A CERTAIN POINT,
AND THEN THE WEIGH OF COLLECTIVE EXPERIENCE
SAYS "SOMETHING'S
NOT WORKING HERE.
WE NEED A CHANGE."
I DON'T THINK YOU GE TO THAT MOMENT BY SLOW DEGREES.
I THINK IT OCCURS
LIKE AN AVALANCHE.
AND THERE COMES A MOMEN WHEN YOU HAVE TO KNOW
WHEN TO CHANGE COURSE.
[SNYDER]
EVEN AS WE SPEND
ALL OF OUR TIME TALKING
ABOUT WHAT HUMANS ARE CAPABLE
OF DOING IN A NEGATIVE SENSE,
WE DON'T KNOW THE LIMITS
OF WHAT WE'RE CAPABLE OF DOING
IN A POSITIVE SENSE.
WE HAVEN'T FOUND THAT EITHER.
THE GENERAL DRIF IS IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.
WE HAVE AN AWFUL LOT OF THINGS
THAT WE SHOULD BE AFRAID OF.
THE WINDOW
OF ACTION IS CLOSING.
BUT THERE WOULDN'T BE ANY POIN TALKING ABOUT ALL OF THIS
IF WE DIDN'T HAVE
THE KNOWLEDGE WHICH WE DO,
IF WE DIDN'T HAVE
THE TOOLS WHICH WE DO,
AND IF WE DIDN'T HAVE
UNPREDICTABLE POTENTIAL,
WHICH WE ALSO DO.
[PARENTI]
WHAT PEOPLE NEED
MORE THAN A FRIGH IS SOME CREDIBLE DESCRIPTION
OF A WAY OUT OF THE PROBLEM.
[BREEN]
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
FUNDAMENTALLY
IS ABOUT THE ABILITY
TO MEET OUR ENERGY NEEDS
FROM WITHIN OUR OWN BORDERS
INDEFINITELY.
THERE'S NO MORE
AMERICAN CONCEPT THAN THAT,
AND THAT MEANS TAKING CONTROL
OF OUR ENERGY FUTURE
AND INVESTING IN ALTERNATIVES
TO OUR CURRENT SYSTEM.
[GOODMAN]
THE FLIP SIDE
OF THE CLIMATE THREA IS THE ENERGY
AND RESILIENCE OPPORTUNITY.
THE MORE DIVERSIFIED WE ARE
IN OUR ENERGY SOURCES,
FROM A WHOLE ARRAY
OF RENEWABLES
TO INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES,
THE SOUNDER AND STRONGER
AND MORE SECURE WE WILL BE.
[BREEN]
ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE SEEN
IS A WHOLE GENERATION
OF VETERANS
WHO HAVE COME BACK
FROM THE CONFLICTS
IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN
WITH A VERY DEEP, PERSONAL
UNDERSTANDING OF THIS CHALLENGE.
WE'VE SEEN RETURNING VETERANS
GO INTO THE RENEWABLE
ENERGY INDUSTRY,
INSTALLING SOLAR PANELS
AND STARTING COMPANIES.
THEY SEE NOT ONLY
THE TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE,
BUT THEY ALSO SEE A MISSION.
THEY SEE A CONTINUATION
OF PUBLIC SERVICE
THAT DROVE THEM
TO RAISE THEIR HAND
AND VOLUNTEER TO PUT ON
THE UNIFORM IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WE DID NOT END THE STONE AGE
BECAUSE WE RAN OUT OF STONES.
WE FOUND SOMETHING BETTER.
WINSTON CHURCHILL
IS ALLEGED TO HAVE SAID
THAT AMERICANS CAN ALWAYS BE
COUNTED ON TO DO THE RIGHT THING
AFTER EXHAUSTING
EVERY OTHER POSSIBILITY.
WE'RE GETTING TOWARDS
THE END OF EXHAUSTING
ALL THOSE OTHER POSSIBILITIES.
[PARENTI]
THE RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
INVOLVES A TYPE
OF INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
WE NEED TO LEAVE BEHIND
THE TECHNOLOGIES
BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS
AND SHIFT TOWARDS
A CLEAN-TECH RENAISSANCE.
THE PATH FORWARD
ALREADY EXISTS.
[FUERTH]
IF YOU LOOK AT THE RATE AT WHICH
THE TECHNOLOGY IS IMPROVING,
THIS ACTUALLY
IS AN ECONOMIC BOON.
DOING WHA WE SHOULD PROACTIVELY
TO DEAL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
BECOMES PAR OF THE SOLUTION SE TO WHAT WE SHOULD
BE DOING PROACTIVELY
TO DEAL WITH THE ECONOMIC
STRENGTH OF THE COUNTRY.
[BREEN]
THESE ARE THE PLAYS
THAT ARE GONNA DEFINE
THE 21st CENTURY EITHER WAY.
WE'LL IMPROVE OUR SECURITY
AND WE'LL IMPROVE
OUR WAY OF LIFE.
WE'LL IMPROVE OUR ECONOMY.
WE MAY ALSO HEAD OFF ONE
OF THE LARGEST RISKS WE FACE.
[PARENTI]
THE MOST IMPORTANT THING
IS FOR PEOPLE TO SEE
HOW ACTUALLY TANGIBLE AND, LIKE,
WITHIN POSSIBLE GRASP
THIS CHANGE IS.
[FUERTH]
I DON'T THINK THAT HUMANITY
IS GUARANTEED A PASS
OUT OF THE PROBLEMS THA IT IS CREATING FOR ITSELF.
IF WE FAIL, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE CAN NEVER AGAIN,
AT ANY PRICE,
OBTAIN THE KIND OF FUTURE
THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SECURE
FOR OURSELVES IF WE SUCCEED.
THE TECHNOLOGICAL MEANS
ARE IN HAND.
THE WEALTH EXISTS.
THE QUESTION ALWAYS IS
IS WHETHER OR NO THE WISDOM EXISTS.
IN ANY STRATEGIC SYSTEM,
TIME IS THE MOS PRECIOUS RESOURCE.
IT'S THE ONE THING
THAT CANNOT BE REPLENISHED.
[MAN]
NUCLEAR WAR COULD QUITE POSSIBLY
FINISH OFF
CIVILIZATION ALTOGETHER.
CLIMATE CHANGE
LEFT TO RUN ITS OWN COURSE
COULD ALSO FINISH US OFF.
THE EXISTENTIAL ISSUE
IS WHETHER WE CAN FORESEE
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
AND GET IT DONE
IN TIME TO MATTER.
WE ARE ALWAYS IN A RACE
BETWEEN WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE
CAN DO FOR US
AND WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE
DOES TO US.
[REPORTER]
DROUGHT AND FOOD SHORTAGE...
[REPORTER]
A JUST-RELEASED REPOR FROM THE PENTAGON--
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE CHALLENGES IT'S CREATING
FOR THE MILITARY.
[REPORTER]
THE LATEST REPORT SAYS
GLOBAL WARMING
IS DRIVING WEATHER
TO NEW LEVELS OF EXTREMES.
[REPORTER]
...A GROWING THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY.
[MAN]
THE PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES
OF A WARMING WORLD
ARE ALREADY WITH US.
[MAN]
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND NATURAL DISASTERS
CAN CAUSE HUMANITARIAN CRISES,
POPULATION MIGRATIONS.
SCARCITY OF WATER, FOOD,
AND SPACE
COULD LEAD TO FAILED STATES,
INSTABILITY,
AND POTENTIALLY
RADICALIZATION.
SENATOR, THERE'S NO QUESTION
THAT ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY
CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC AFFEC ON OVERALL SECURITY
BOTH IN INDIVIDUAL STATES
AND REGIONALLY.
[MAN]
NEVER BEFORE HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE
FLED WAR AND PERSECUTION.
[MAN]
THIS IS CLIMATE CHANGE
FAR BEYOND THE MELTING ICE CAPS.
[MAN]
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE,
WHILE NOT NEW TO HISTORY,
IS NEW TO THE MODERN WORLD.
IT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY
ADD TO THE CHALLENGES
OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY:
HUNGER, POVERTY,
AND CONFLICT.
THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE FAR-REACHING
AND UNPREDICTABLE,
DEMANDING OUR ATTENTION
AND STRATEGIC THINKING.
THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
IS PREPARING TO ADAPT TO THESE
21st CENTURY CHALLENGES.
[MAN]
THE INTERSECTION
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE SECURITY OF NATIONS
WILL BECOME A DEFINING REALITY
IN THE YEARS AHEAD.
WE CANNOT IGNORE THE COSTS
OF INACTION
AND WE CANNOT LEAVE THESE
MASSIVE SECURITY CONCERNS
TO THE NEXT GENERATION.
WE ARE NOW IN THE AGE
OF CONSEQUENCES.
[MICHAEL BREEN]
THINK ABOUT IT FROM
A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE.
WHEN I WAS LEADING
PARATROOPERS IN AFGHANISTAN,
IF 98,
99% OF MY INTELLIGENCE
TOLD ME THAT I WAS DRIVING
MY PLATOON DOWN A ROAD
AND THAT TWO MILES
DOWN THAT ROAD
THERE'S AN AMBUSH
WAITING FOR ME.
[GUNS FIRING]
I DON'T GET TO SAY,
"YEAH, BUT THERE'S THAT 1%
THAT SAYS
THAT THERE'S NO AMBUSH,
SO TO HELL
WITH THE OTHER 99%.
WE'RE GONNA
KEEP GOING DOWN THE ROAD."
I MEAN, THAT'S NEGLIGENCE
ON AN UNFATHOMABLE SCALE.
THAT'S THE DEBATE
WE'RE HAVING RIGHT NOW
WITH REGARD TO CLIMATE.
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS
IS WE ARE FACING
A MASSIVE RISK.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING.
WE'VE GOT TO DECIDE WHETHER
WE'RE GOING TO ACT ON IT OR NOT.
AND THAT CHOICE
HAS CONSEQUENCES.
[FRANCESCO FEMIA]
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
THE BASIC RESOURCES
THAT ARE NECESSARY
FOR HUMANS TO SURVIVE
AND FOR NATIONS TO CONTINUE.
AS WE SEE OUR RESOURCES
STRESSED SIGNIFICANTLY,
WE'RE GONNA SEE SOME
UNPRECEDENTED CHANGES
THAT WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR.
THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ON EVERY FACET OF LIFE.
THEY IMPACT ON EVERY FACE OF NATIONAL SECURITY
AND OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY.
THAT MAKES INSTABILITY.
THAT MAKES CONFLIC MUCH MORE LIKELY.
[CHRISTIAN PARENTI]
THE FIRST TIME I THOUGHT ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE AND VIOLENCE
WAS IN AFGHANISTAN
WHILE RESEARCHING OPIUM POPPY
FROM WHICH HEROIN IS MADE.
EVERY TIME
I INTERVIEWED FARMERS,
THEY SAID, "PART OF WHY
WE GROW THIS CROP
IS BECAUSE
IT'S DROUGHT-RESISTANT."
TURNS OUT AFGHANISTAN
IS GOING THROUGH THE WORS DROUGHT IN LIVING MEMORY,
AND POPPY USES ONE FIFTH
THE AMOUNT OF WATER
THAT WHEAT USES.
THE KARZAI GOVERNMEN WERE ERADICATING POPPY.
THE TALIBAN,
ON THE OTHER HAND,
SAID TO THE FARMERS,
"WE WILL DEFEND YOUR RIGH TO GROW THIS CROP."
EVEN IN THAT CONFLICT WHICH
HAS THIS ELABORATE HISTORY,
THERE IS A CLIMATE ASPECT.
IT'S ALWAYS A QUESTION
OF HOW CLIMATE CHANGE
INTERACTS WITH OTHER
PRE-EXISTING PROBLEMS.
IF YOU HAVE AN AREA
THAT IS ALREADY UNSTABLE
AND THEN HAS THE ADDITIONAL
CHALLENGE OF SEA LEVEL RISE,
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS,
WATER SHORTAGES
OR FOOD SHORTAGES
OR A DISASTER
THAT MAKES PEOPLE MOVE,
THEN YOU CAN START SEEING
CONFLICT SITUATIONS.
IT'S ALL
THE UNDERLYING CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE STIMULUS
OR THE CATALYS THAT CAN CAUSE ALL OF THA TO AGITATE AND BECOME CONFLICT.
[SHOUTING, GUNS FIRING]
FROM MY PERSPECTIVE
AS A FORMER MEMBER
OF THE UNITED STATES MILITARY
AND 30 PLUS YEARS
OF SERVICE IN UNIFORM,
CLIMATE CHANGE IS WHAT WE CALL
AN ACCELERANT TO INSTABILITY.
IT IS WHAT'S CAUSING
A LOT OF THE CONFLIC OR HELPING ASSIST THE CONFLIC THAT'S GOING ON
AROUND THE WORLD.
AND YOU CAN SEE THA ON THE FRONT PAGES
OF THE PAPER
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY.
[GIRL SINGING
IN NATIVE LANGUAGE]
[EXPLOSION]
[MAN SPEAKING
ON DISTANT P.A. SYSTEM]
[GUN FIRES]
[BREEN]
IF YOU LOOK
AROUND THE WORLD TODAY,
WE CAN ALREADY SEE
CONFLICT AND CLIMATE IN PLAY
RIGHT UNDER THE HEADLINES
THAT WE'RE READING.
[REPORTER]
THE INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS
IS NOW DESIGNATING
SYRIA'S DEADLY CONFLIC TO BE A FULL-BLOWN
CIVIL WAR.
[BREEN]
THINK ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS
WE DON'T OFTEN LOOK AT.
THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA,
NOW GOING ON FOR YEARS,
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS DEAD,
THE ENTIRE REGION
IS IN CHAOS AS A RESULT.
[REPORTER]
A NEW STUDY FINDS
CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED
THE WORST DROUGHT EVER
IN MODERN SYRIA
AS A CONSEQUENCE
OF HUMAN INTERFERENCE.
[REPORTER]
PROFESSOR RICHARD SEAGER
SAYS THA A THREE-YEAR DROUGH PLAYED A HUGE ROLE
IN PUSHING THE SYRIAN PEOPLE
INTO AN ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR.
THIS IS THE FIRST STUDY
THAT QUANTITATIVELY
DRAWS A CONNECTION
BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE ONSE OF A CONFLICT.
SYRIA BEGAN TO EXPERIENCE
A SERIOUS MULTI-YEAR DROUGH IN THE WINTER OF 2006, 2007.
AND THAT DROUGHT LASTED
FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS.
FARMING FAMILIES JUS CANNOT SURVIVE ON THE LAND
WHEN A DROUGH LASTS THAT LONG.
[CHENEY]
AS PEOPLE TRY TO FEED
THEIR FAMILIES AND CAN'T,
THEY'VE GOT TO GO SOMEWHERE.
[BREEN]
THE DROUGHT CAUSED
A LARGE NUMBER
OF YOUNG SYRIAN
MEN IN PARTICULAR
TO LEAVE FARMLAND
AND GO TO THE CITIES.
[CHENEY]
DAMASCUS, ALEPPO,
ONE AND A HALF PLUS
MILLION PEOPLE HAD TO MOVE.
[BREEN]
THAT HAS A MAJOR
DESTABILIZING IMPAC WHEN PEOPLE HAVE
TO PICK UP AND LEAVE
WHETHER IT'S BECAUSE OF CONFLIC OR RESOURCE SCARCITY.
AS ANYONE CAN TELL YOU,
A BUNCH OF UNEMPLOYED
YOUNG MEN IN A MAJOR CITY
IS NOT A RECIPE
FOR SOCIAL STABILITY.
[SEAGER]
NOW SYRIA HAD ALREADY ABSORBED
ABOUT A MILLION
AND A HALF REFUGEES
FROM IRAQ WHO WERE FLEEING
THE CIVIL WAR THERE.
THOSE NUMBERS COMBINED SUCH
THAT THE POPULATION
OF SYRIAN CITIES
GREW BY ABOUT 30% OR MORE.
THAT RATE OF MIGRATION
IS ABSOLUTELY CATASTROPHIC.
IT DROVE FOOD PRICES UP,
IT DROVE APARTMENT PRICES UP,
STRAINED THE HEALTH SYSTEM,
ALL LEADING TO THE KINDS
OF CONDITIONS OF DISCONTEN TO THE ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR
THAT IS STILL GOING ON NOW.
WHEN WE ANALYZED ALL
THE PRECIPITATION DATA
WE COULD GET,
WE FOUND THAT WE JUS COULDN'T ATTRIBUTE
SUCH A LONG AND SERIOUS DROUGH TO NATURAL CLIMATE
VARIABILITY ALONE.
[PARENTI]
THAT PARTICULAR DROUGHT WAS
TWO TO THREE TIMES MORE LIKELY
BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
[SEAGER]
WE OF COURSE DID NOT SAY
DROUGHT WAS THE SOLE CAUSE
OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR.
IT'S THE CONFLUENCE
OF MULTIPLE CAUSES COMING IN,
WITH CLIMATE
BEING ONE OF THEM.
[FEMIA]
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ALL ABOUT THE WATER.
SO WE HAVE CLIMATE CHANGE
LEADING TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY.
WE DON'T NECESSARILY KNOW
WHEN THE WATER IS GONNA COME.
WE CAN'T PREDIC THAT WE'RE GONNA GE THE SAME AMOUNT OF WATER
AS WE USED TO GET,
AND THAT IS GOING TO HAVE
A HUGE IMPAC ON WHETHER OR NO WE CAN GROW FOOD.
SO IN THE CASE OF SYRIA,
WE'RE TALKING ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS WATER RESOURCES,
HOW THAT IMPACTS FOOD RESOURCES,
AND WHAT THAT MEANS
FOR WHAT PEOPLE DO FOR A LIVING,
WHETHER IT'S FARM,
HERD ANIMALS,
OR JOIN A TERRORIS ORGANIZATION.
[REPORTER]
THIS IS A CITY DRAPED IN BLACK
AND A CITY RAGING WITH ANGER.
[REPORTER]
THIS IS ISIS,
THE ISLAMIC STATE
OF IRAQ AND SYRIA.
[CHENEY]
AS PEOPLE MOVED
INTO THOSE CITIES IN SYRIA,
THEY WERE UNEMPLOYED,
DIDN'T HAVE A SOURCE OF FOOD.
THEY NEEDED
TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES.
ISIL PROMISED THEM
BOTH THOSE THINGS
DESPITE THE PHILOSOPHY
BEHIND THEIR ORGANIZATIONS,
PEOPLE WANT TO SURVIVE FIRST.
[SEAGER]
ISIS WAS PRE-EXISTING
IN THE REGION
AND WOULD HAVE EXISTED
EVEN THERE HAD NOT BEEN
A DROUGHT IN SYRIA,
BUT ONCE THE SYRIAN SOCIETY
BEGAN TO UNRAVEL,
EVERY ACTOR
WITHIN THAT REGION
SAW AN OPPORTUNITY
TO TRY TO USE THE CRISIS
TO ADVANCE
THEIR PRE-EXISTING AGENDA.
[FEMIA]
ISIS HAS CERTAINLY
TAKEN ADVANTAGE
OF SCARCE WATER RESOURCES,
CREATING LEVERAGE
OVER LOCAL POPULATIONS.
[REPORTER]
ISIS HAS JUS TAKEN OVER A DAM
NEAR THE KEY CITY OF RAMADI,
SHUTTING IT DOWN
AND PREVENTING WATER
FROM REACHING
TWO KEY TOWNS.
THEIR GOAL, TO QUOTE
"KILL PEOPLE OF THIRST."
[BREEN]
THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS
TO RIVER TOWNS.
THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS
TO WATER SUPPLIES,
AND IT'S DRIVING THEIR STRATEGY.
[CHENEY]
WATER BECOMES
AN INSTRUMENT OF WAR
FOR THESE PEOPLE
WHO ARE LOOKING TO TAKE OVER.
YOU CONTROL THE WATER,
YOU CONTROL THE LIVELIHOOD
OF THE PEOPLE.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS GONNA IMPAC THE AMOUNT OF WATER.
IT'LL IMPAC WHO CONTROLS THE WATER.
THAT'LL IMPAC THE INSTABILITY.
[SEAGER]
THE CLIMATE CHANGE THA WE'RE GONNA BE EXPERIENCING
OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS
IS WAY IN EXCESS
OF WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED
UP TO NOW.
AND I THINK THE SYRIA CASE
IS A REAL WAKE-UP
FOR WHA THE CONSEQUENCES CAN BE,
AND THIS IS REALLY EARLY ON
IN THIS GAME.
[PARENTI]
IT'S IN THE U.S.
NATIONAL INTERES TO ENSURE THAT THERE'S
A STABILITY GLOBALLY.
THOSE ARE THINGS
THAT CAN COME HOME TO US.
[TIMOTHY SNYDER]
YOU CAN ALWAYS LOOK AT SYRIA
AND SAY, "WELL, IT'S ISIS,"
OR, "WELL, IT'S ASSAD."
YES, IT IS ISIS.
YES, IT'S ASSAD.
BUT THERE'S A BACKDROP
WHICH HAS TO DO WITH CLIMATE.
THAT'S GONNA HAPPEN
OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN.
EACH TIME WE'LL HAVE
A DIFFERENT POLITICAL
OR IDEOLOGICAL STORY TO TELL,
EACH TIME IT'LL BE TRUE,
AND EACH TIME THE UNDERLYING
FACTOR WILL BE CLIMATE.
[BURKE]
WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE,
IT'S A NATIONAL
SECURITY CHALLENGE
IN THE BROADES POSSIBLE SENSE,
IN THAT THESE CHANGING
WEATHER PATTERNS OVER TIME
ARE GOING TO AFFEC THE WAY WE LIVE.
THEY'RE GOING TO AFFEC OUR FOOD SUPPLY,
OUR WATER SUPPLY, THE HEA OF THE ENVIRONMENT WE LIVE IN.
SECURITY IN THE BROADEST SENSE
IS ABOUT ALL THE THINGS
THAT WE CARE ABOUT DAY TO DAY.
ARE YOU SAFE?
CAN YOU FEED YOUR FAMILY?
CAN YOUR CHILDREN
GO TO SCHOOL?
WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGE
IN THE MILITARY SENSE,
YOU'RE TALKING ABOU HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THE MILITARY HAS TO DO?
THE MISSIONS IT GOES ON,
OR SUPPORT HERE AT HOME.
HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THEY NEED TO BE
READY FOR IN THE FUTURE?
[GEORGE H.W. BUSH]
WE ALL KNOW
THAT HUMAN ACTIVITIES
ARE CHANGING THE ATMOSPHERE
IN UNEXPECTED
AND IN UNPRECEDENTED WAYS.
I FIRST SAW THE EFFECTS
ON NATIONAL SECURITY
AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
IN SOMALIA IN THE EARLY '90s.
THE ESSENTIAL NATURE
OF THAT CONFLIC WAS ORIGINALLY
CAUSED BY DROUGH AND A LACK OF FOOD,
SIMPLY STATED,
AND WE BEGAN TO SEE
A MAJOR TREND.
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ONE OF THE VARIABLES
THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED
WHEN THINKING ABOU INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD.
[WOMAN]
I'D LIKE TO TURN NOW
TO SHERRI GOODMAN.
SHE SERVED AS DEPUTY
UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE
FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY.
[GOODMAN]
LIKE MANY OF YOU
PROBABLY NOW,
YOU WANT TO WORK ON
THE BIG ISSUES OF THE DAY.
THAT'S WHAT I WANTED TO DO,
SO I WAS IN THE FIELD
OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ARMS CONTROL
WERE THE BIG CHALLENGES,
BUT IT WAS ACTUALLY
DURING AN ERA
WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
BEGAN TO BE IMPLEMENTED
IN PLACES LIKE
THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT.
AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY,
THERE BEGAN TO BE RECOGNITION
THAT THERE WAS A NEXUS BETWEEN
WHAT'S HAPPENING
IN CLIMATE CHANGE
AND NATIONAL SECURITY.
WE'VE SEEN THIS ESTIMATION
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A SIGNIFICANT RISK
SINCE THE EARLY DAYS
OF THE GEORGE W. BUSH
ADMINISTRATION.
THE VERY FIRST REPORT FROM
THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
WAS IN 2003
AND IDENTIFIED THE POTENTIAL
NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE.
I WAS ASKED TO TAKE ON
THIS CHALLENGE DIRECTLY
IN ABOUT THE 2006 TIME FRAME,
AND SO I GATHERED
THE NATION'S
LEADING RETIRED
MILITARY OFFICERS.
AS A GROUP, WE ARE NOT YOUR
TRADITIONAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS.
CNA's MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD
IS A GROUP OF SENIOR RETIRED
ADMIRALS AND GENERALS
FROM ALL FIVE SERVICES THA HAVE CHANGED THE CONVERSATION.
THE VIEW OF THE MILITARY
ADVISORY BOARD
IS THAT WE CAN'T WAIT UNTIL
WE HAVE ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY.
IF WE WAIT,
WE MIGHT WAIT TOO LONG.
[GOODMAN]
WE RELEASED OUR INITIAL REPOR "NATIONAL SECURITY AND
THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE"
IN 2007.
WE REALIZED
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE
WOULD BE A THREAT MULTIPLIER
FOR INSTABILITY.
PEOPLE BECOME DESPERATE BECAUSE
THEY HAVE EXTREME WEATHER
AND THE SEAS ARE RISING
AND THERE ARE FLOODS IN ONE
AREA AND DROUGHTS IN ANOTHER.
FRAGILE STATES BECOME
MORE UNPREDICTABLE.
[BURKE]
THAT WAS DEFINITIONAL.
WHEN THAT STUDY CAME OUT,
IT REALLY SET A BASELINE FOR HOW
TO TALK ABOUT THIS ISSUE.
[MAN]
ONE OF THE KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
OF THE CNA REPOR WAS TO INCORPORATE
THE CONSEQUENCES
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
INTO A NATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.
[MARCUS D. KING]
IN 2008, THE IDEA
THAT CAME OUT OF THAT REPOR WAS CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED
EXISTING SOCIETAL TENSIONS.
SOCIAL TENSIONS
AND ECONOMIC COSTS
COULD LEAD TO STATE
OR REGIONAL INSTABILITY
THREATENING U.S. INTEREST.
IT COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO INTER-
AND MORE LIKELY
INTRASTATE CONFLICTS.
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY
WORKED ITS WAY
INTO THE HIGHEST-LEVEL
STRATEGIC DOCUMENT PRODUCED
BY THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.
[BREEN]
THE QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE
REVIEW,
THE PENTAGON'S
BEDROCK STRATEGIC DOCUMENT,
HAS CONSISTENTLY IDENTIFIED
CLIMATE CHANGE
AS AN ACCELERAN OF INSTABILITY OR CONFLICT.
IT WAS REALLY THE FIRST TIME
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WAS
ADDRESSED AT THAT LEVEL.
WE NOW SEE THIS SIGNED OU BY THE SECRETARIES OF DEFENSE.
[FEMIA]
THE CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION ROAD MAP
IDENTIFIED CLIMATE CHANGE
AS POSING IMMEDIATE RISKS
TO NATIONAL SECURITY.
[GOODMAN]
2014, WE FOUND THA THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE
AND THAT THEY ARE NOW
A CATALYST FOR CONFLICT.
[TITLEY]
WE'VE TURNED THE CORNER,
AND WE REALLY SEE
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES
OF THE 21st CENTURY.
[BURKE]
I CAN REMEMBER ONCE
GETTING IN A DISCUSSION
WITH A CAREER CIVILIAN
AT THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
WHO WAS EXPRESSING CONCERN
ABOUT TALKING
ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
AND SAID
WE HAVE TO USE LANGUAGE
THAT DOESN'T, YOU KNOW,
OFFEND PEOPLE,
THAT DOESN'T SAY
THIS IS REALLY HAPPENING.
AND I JUST LOOKED AT HIM
AND I SAID,
"THAT'S INCOMPATIBLE
WITH U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY,"
AND I, YOU KNOW,
CITED ALL THESE REPORTS,
AND SAID, "YOU NEED TO LOOK
AT WHAT YOUR OWN
GOVERNMENT IS SAYING
AND WORK FROM THAT."
[MAN]
WE'RE GONNA BEGIN
BY RECOGNIZING
WHERE ADMIRAL DAVID TITLEY
WAS A MEMBER OF CNA
MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD.
WHENEVER YOU'RE READY,
PLEASE BEGIN.
[TITLEY]
I'M HERE TODAY
NOT ONLY REPRESENTING
MY VIEWS ON SECURITY
IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE,
BUT ON THE COLLECTIVE WISDOM
OF 16 ADMIRALS AND GENERALS.
SIR, OUR COLLECTIVE,
BOTTOM-LINE JUDGMEN IS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE
IS AN ACCELERATING RISK
TO OUR NATION'S FUTURE.
THESE SERIOUS IMPACTS
TO OUR SECURITY
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN BOTH FREQUENCY
AND CONSEQUENCE.
FAILURE TO THINK ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE
MIGHT IMPACT OUR GLOBALLY
INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMS
AND ALL ELEMENTS
OF U.S. POWER AND SECURITY
IS FRANKLY A FAILURE
OF IMAGINATION.
[LEON FUERTH]
THERE'S A TENDENCY TO SEPARATE
THINKING ABOUT DOMESTIC EVENTS
FROM INTERNATIONAL EVENTS
AS IF THAT WAS A REAL BARRIER.
WHAT WE DO IN THIS COUNTRY
HAS A STRONG IMPACT ON PEOPLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
AND VICE VERSA.
SO YOU REALLY HAVE
TO START LOOKING
AT RECIPROCAL INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN EVENTS
IN DIFFERENT PARTS
OF THE WORLD.
WHEN IT COMES TO SOMETHING
LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE,
YOU BEGIN TO WORRY
ABOUT PHENOMENA
THAT YOU WEREN'T COUNTING ON
KICKING IN AT SOME
INDETERMINATE LEVEL.
[REPORTER]
RUSSIA IS ON FIRE.
MORE THAN 500 WILDFIRES
RAGING ACROSS
THE DROUGHT-PLAGUED COUNTRY.
[REPORTER]
THE HEAT WAVE
HAS RAVAGED FARM LAND
AND DESTROYED CROPS
OVER AN AREA
THE SIZE OF PORTUGAL.
[REPORTER]
THIS DISASTER COULD DESTROY
ONE OF THE NATION'S
BIGGEST EXPORTS, WHEAT.
[FEMIA]
IN 2010, THERE WAS
A MAJOR DROUGH WHICH LED TO HEAT WAVES
IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
AND IN CHINA,
WHICH REALLY
DEVASTATED THE WHEAT CROP
IN THOSE COUNTRIES.
[REPORTER]
IT'S THE WORST DROUGH IN 200 YEARS.
CHINA'S IN A CRISIS,
BUT THIS IS ONE
FOR THE WORLD TO WATCH.
[REPORTER]
COMMODITY TRADERS HAVE REACTED
TO THE FIRES AND DROUGH BY PUSHING UP
THE PRICE OF WHEA TO A 23-MONTH HIGH.
[FEMIA]
CHINA, RUSSIA STARTED BUYING
A LOT OF WHEA ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET,
DROVE THE PRICES UP
SIGNIFICANTLY.
[SEAGER]
BECAUSE FOOD IS TRADED GLOBALLY,
FOOD PRICES CAN BE INFLUENCED
BY WHAT'S GOING ON
ALL OVER THE WORLD.
IF YOU ARE BUYING BREAD
IN DAMASCUS OR IN CAIRO,
THAT GRAIN HAS BEEN TRADED
ON AN INTERNATIONAL MARKET,
SO IT IS SENSITIVE
TO CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS
FROM KANSAS,
THE SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA,
AND IN URUGUAY
AND ARGENTINA.
WHAT HAPPENS GLOBALLY MATTERS.
[SNYDER]
GLOBALIZATION IS INHERENTLY
UNPREDICTABLE.
SINCE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
ARE ALL IN ONE
GLOBAL MARKET NOW,
WHAT CHINA DOES
WHEN IT PANIC-BUYS
IS IT AFFECTS MARKETS
ALL OVER THE WORLD.
[SEAGER]
LARGE SHOCKS
ON THE GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY
WILL ALWAYS AFFEC THE MOST VULNERABLE PEOPLE,
BECAUSE WHEN THE PRICES
ARE BEING DETERMINED
INTERNATIONALLY,
THE FOOD WILL GO TO THOSE PEOPLE
WHO HAVE THE MOST MONEY.
INEVITABLY,
THE POORER OF THE WORLD
WILL BE THE ONES WHO BEAR
THE BRUNT OF ANY SHORTFALL.
[FEMIA]
NOW, EGYPT IS ONE
OF THOSE COUNTRIES
THAT'S HEAVILY DEPENDEN ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET.
[REPORTER]
WITH A POPULATION
OF MORE THAN 80 MILLION,
THE DEMAND FOR DAILY BREAD
IS HIGH.
IT HAS MADE EGYPT THE WORLD'S
LARGEST IMPORTER OF WHEAT.
IN A NUMBER OF AREAS
AROUND THE COUNTRY,
THE PRICE OF WHEA WENT UP 300%.
[REPORTER]
IN A COUNTRY THAT HAS TO IMPOR MORE THAN HALF
THE WHEAT IT NEEDS,
FLOUR HAS STARTED TO LOOK
LIKE GOLD DUST.
RUSSIA STOPPED EXPORTING WHEA TO THE MIDDLE EAS DURING THAT PERIOD.
[TRANSLATOR]
DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DROUGHT,
I BELIEVE IT IS REASONABLE
TO INTRODUCE
A TEMPORARY BAN ON GRAIN
AND WHEAT PRODUCT EXPORTS
FROM THE TERRITORY
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION.
WHEN THEY CUT THAT WHEAT OFF,
THINGS BECAME VERY UNSTABLE.
[CROWD CHANTING]
[REPORTER]
THIS IS WHA POPULAR UPRISING LOOKS LIKE.
[REPORTER]
PROTESTERS DEMANDING
BREAD AND FREEDOM
AND CALLING FOR GOVERNMEN OFFICIALS TO STEP DOWN.
[TITLEY]
IF YOU EITHER DON'T HAVE FOOD
OR YOU HAVE FOOD
BUT NOW YOU HAVE TO PAY
A WHOLE LOT MORE FOR I AND YOU DON'T HAVE
THAT DISPOSABLE INCOME,
IT BECOMES A HUGE THREAT.
YOU'RE PROBABLY
GONNA DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.
[REPORTER]
THESE PROTESTS SEEM TO BE
A KIND OF CHAIN REACTION
ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.
[REPORTER]
FOR DECADES, ANGER HAS SIMMERED
THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD--
ANGER OVER
CORRUPT GOVERNMENTS,
POVERTY,
AND A LACK OF FREEDOM.
IT'S NOT JUST THIS VERY SIMPLE
"IF A, THEN B."
CLIMATE CHANGE CAN BE
ONE OF THE CAUSES
IN KIND OF
A CHAIN OF EVENTS SCENARIO
LIKE IN THE ARAB SPRING
THAT EXACERBATES AN ALREADY
VOLATILE POLITICAL SITUATION.
[REPORTER]
CENTRAL CAIRO, A BATTLEFIELD.
[REPORTER]
BULLETS WERE FLYING
AROUND TAHRIR SQUARE.
[CLATTERING, SCREAMING]
[REPORTER]
PROTESTERS LOOTED WEAPONS
AND TURNED THEM ON POLICE.
[PARENTI]
THE SUDDEN SHOCKS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CAN LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS
AND COLLAPSES.
SO YOU'RE GONNA HAVE
FRAGILE SOCIAL SYSTEMS
THAT JUST NEED ONE MORE SHOCK
TO TIP THEM OVER THE EDGE
INTO A DIFFERENT CONFIGURATION,
INTO SOCIAL BREAKDOWN,
INTO WAR.
[CROWD SHOUTING,
HORNS HONKING]
[SNYDER]
WE HAVE HAD,
FOR A COUPLE OF GENERATIONS,
A SENSE THAT FOOD
IS NOT PART OF POLITICS.
THIS IS SHORT-TERM,
I'M AFRAID.
THE PROBLEMS
THAT WE'RE HAVING NOW
ARE UNFORTUNATELY
A SMALL FORE TASTE
OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN BECAUSE
OF THE INTERDEPENDENCE
OF CLIMATE, ECONOMICS,
AND POLITICS.
IT'S GENERALLY THE CASE
THAT ALL SOCIETIES
SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLE
THINKING ABOUT THE MIDDLE
AND THE LONG-TERM FUTURE.
SINCE THERE IS A HISTORY
OF CATASTROPHE,
WHEN WE LOOK AT OURSELVES
IN THE PRESENT DAY,
HISTORY IS THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
THAT WE HAVE FOR PERSPECTIVE.
[SOLOMON HSIANG]
WHEN WE LOOK BACK
INTO THE HISTORICAL RECORD,
WE ACTUALLY SEE THA THE COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATIONS,
PLACES LIKE ANGKOR WAT,
WHERE WHOLE POLITICAL
SYSTEMS CRUMBLED,
THOSE THINGS
SEEM TO HAVE OCCURRED
RIGHT AT THE SAME TIME
THAT REALLY LARGE-SCALE
GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES
WERE OCCURRING.
THE TONG DYNASTY AND
THE CLASSIC MAYA CIVILIZATION
COLLAPSED AT ALMOS EXACTLY THE SAME TIME
ON OPPOSITE SIDES
OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THERE WAS
THIS LARGE-SCALE EVEN THAT LED TO SYSTEMATIC
DRYING AND WARMING
THROUGHOUT BOTH
OF THESE REGIONS,
AND TWO GREA CIVILIZATIONS FELL.
THERE WAS A REALLY COHERENT,
VIVID PICTURE
ABOUT HOW HUMAN SOCIETY
AROUND THE WORLD
AND THROUGHOUT TIME
HAS BEEN INTERACTING
WITH THE CLIMATE.
ANYWHERE WE LOOK,
WE SEE THE SAME THING.
IT'S PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOS REPEATED FINDINGS
IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS
IN THE FIELD.
[SNYDER]
PAST SOCIETIES COULD OBSERVE
CROP FAILURE,
BUT THEY DIDN'T KNOW HOW
TO EXPLAIN IT.
WHAT GIVES US A CHANCE
IS THAT WE CAN OBSERVE
NOT ONLY LOCAL SYMPTOMS
OF A PROBLEM LIKE CROP FAILURE.
WE CAN ALSO OBSERVE
THE ENTIRE GLOBE
AND DRAW CONCLUSIONS.
THE QUESTION
IS WHETHER WE DECIDE
WE'RE GONNA DO THAT OR NOT.
TODAY I WANT TO SPEAK TO YOU
ABOUT THE NATIONAL
SECURITY RISKS
POSED BY A CHANGING CLIMATE.
JUST LAST MONTH,
THE ADMINISTRATION ISSUED
ITS 2015
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY.
THE STRATEGY
INCLUDES CLIMATE CHANGE
AS ONE OF EIGH TOP STRATEGIC RISKS
ALONG WITH
A CATASTROPHIC ATTACK
ON THE UNITED STATES SOIL
AND THE PROLIFERATION
OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
CLIMATE CHANGE, ONCE CONSIDERED
AN ISSUE FOR A DISTANT FUTURE,
HAS MOVED FIRMLY
INTO THE PRESENT.
WE SAW THIS
DRAMATICALLY HAPPEN HERE
IN THE UNITED STATES
WITH SUPER STORM SANDY.
THE STORM SURGE WENT OVER
A 12 1/2 FOOT WALL
PROTECTING A ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
AND IMMEDIATELY PLUNGED
LOWER MANHATTAN INTO DARKNESS.
WITHOUT ELECTRICITY,
OUR TRANSPORTATION
AND HEALTH SECTORS
BEGAN TO COLLAPSE.
WE CAN SEE FROM EVENTS
OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS
THE INCREASING NOT ONLY SEVERITY
OF NATURAL DISASTERS,
BUT THE UNPREDICTABILITY
OF THEIR CONSEQUENCES.
AS OUR WORLD BECOMES
MORE INTERCONNECTED,
AS DISASTERS HAPPEN IN DIFFEREN AND UNPREDICTABLE WAYS,
THEY CAUSE CASCADING IMPACTS
THROUGH OUR COMMUNITIES,
THROUGH OUR SOCIETIES,
THROUGH OUR INFRASTRUCTURE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WHAT WE CALL
CASCADING DISASTERS
ARE MUCH CLOSER TO HOME.
WE'RE SEEING IN THE WES OF THE UNITED STATES
UNPRECEDENTED DROUGHT...
WHICH SPARKS FOREST FIRES.
AT THE SAME TIME,
WE MIGHT NEED TO BE RESPONDING
TO INCREASED ACTIVITY
IN THE ARCTIC.
WE MIGHT BE SEEING
SEA LEVEL RISE IN FLORIDA
AND ON THE EAST COAS INTERACT WITH MAJOR STORMS
THAT MIGHT BECOME MORE INTENSE.
AND AS WE GO FORWARD
AS THE CLIMATE CHANGES,
WE MIGHT SEE THOSE THINGS STAR TO HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY.
ARE WE READY TO DEAL
WITH MULTIPLE DISASTERS
AT THE SAME TIME
WITHIN THE UNITED STATES?
THAT'S AN OPEN QUESTION.
WE'VE ALSO GOT TO THINK ABOU THE SECURITY
OF OUR BASES AT HOME.
NORFOLK, VIRGINIA,
IS WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE U.S. NAVY'S ATLANTIC
COMBAT CAPABILITY IS BASED.
IT'S ALSO AT EXTREME RISK
OF SEA LEVEL RISE.
[SEN. TIM KAINE]
THE HAMPTON ROADS
REGION OF MY STATE
IS HOME TO THE LARGEST NAVAL
INSTALLATION IN THE WORLD,
NAVAL STATION NORFOLK.
STUDIES SHOW
THAT THE MAIN NORFOLK ROAD
INTO THE LARGEST NAVAL BASE
IN THE WORLD
BY 2040 WILL BE INUNDATED
BY DAILY TIDES,
NOT EVEN STORM SURGES.
[CHENEY]
THEY'RE ALREADY RAISING
THE LEVEL OF THE PIERS.
AT THE LEVEL THEY'RE AT,
THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE
TO SERVICE THE SHIPS
THAT ARE COMING IN.
THIS IS OUR LARGES NAVAL BASE IN THE WORLD.
[BREEN]
THERE'S SERIOUS
CONSIDERATIONS HERE.
THE WELFARE OF NORFOLK
HAS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
BECAUSE OF THE POWER
THAT IS PROJECTED
FROM THAT PLACE
AROUND THE WORLD.
[CHENEY]
IT'S NOT JUST THE CASE
WHERE YOU'LL DEPLOY THESE FORCES
IN A PARTICULAR CONFLICT,
BUT YOU'LL ALSO
HAVE TO DEPLOY THEM
TO RESPOND TO CATASTROPHIC
WEATHER EVENTS,
AND THE PRIME EXAMPLE
THAT I USE
IS TYPHOON HAIYAN
IN THE PHILIPPINES.
WE SENT SOME 14,000
SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AIRMEN,
AND MARINES IN RESPONSE
TO THAT CATASTROPHIC EVENT.
WE WERE THE ONLY COUNTRY
THAT'S CAPABLE OF DOING THAT,
OF DEPLOYING
THAT AMOUNT OF FORCES,
THAT AMOUNT OF DISTANCE.
[TITLEY]
AS THE SEA LEVELS RISE,
AS THE STORM SURGES INCREASE,
AS THE RAIN RATES INCREASE,
IT THEN BECOMES
A CAPACITY ISSUE.
HOW MUCH OF THAT CAN YOU DO
BEFORE YOU START IMPACTING
OTHER MISSIONS?
[BREEN]
EVERY TWO WEEKS
THE U.S. MILITARY
NOW IS GETTING
A DISASTER RESPONSE.
SO THOSE SAME SAILORS
LEAVE NORFOLK, VIRGINIA,
CHALLENGED BY CLIMATE CHANGE,
CHALLENGED BY SEA LEVEL RISE,
SAIL HALFWAY AROUND THE WORLD,
RESPOND TO A SERIES
OF DISASTERS
THAT ARE RELATED
TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
IN THE HEAVILY POPULATED
PACIFIC RIM,
AND ON THE WAY HOME THEY MAY
STEAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE EAS WHERE A CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA
AND NOW IN OTHER PARTS
OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO RAGE,
THAT IN MANY WAYS
WAS ACCELERATED BY A DROUGH THAT WAS WORSE BECAUSE
OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
SO THEY'RE SEEING
THE IMPACTS OF THIS
FROM THE TIME
THEY'D GET ON THE BOA AND GO ON THE DEPLOYMEN TO THE TIME THEY GET HOME.
WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO MAKE
AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICUL SERIES OF CHOICES.
WE'RE ALREADY
MAKING THOSE CHOICES
ABOUT WHERE TO GO
AND WHERE TO USE RESOURCES,
WHEN TO RESPOND
AND WHEN NOT TO.
[REPORTER]
80% OF NEW ORLEANS
UNDERWATER RIGHT NOW.
I SAID, "WE WAS PLANNING ON
LEAVING TOMORROW IF WE COULD."
THERE'S NO QUESTION
THAT COMMUNITIES
THAT HAVE FEWER RESOURCES
ARE GOING TO SUFFER MORE.
IF YOU LOOK IN THIS COUNTRY,
THE EFFECTS
ARE GOING TO BE UNEVEN.
SOME PLACES
ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE
MORE DRAMATIC EFFECTS
THAN OTHERS.
[REPORTER]
PEOPLE TRAPPED IN BUILDINGS
THAT HAVE COME DOWN
AROUND THEM.
THEY HAVE MADE DESPERATE CALLS
TO 911 ASKING FOR HELP,
ASKING FOR RESCUE,
BUT THE RESCUERS CAN'T GET OUT.
[REPORTER]
PEOPLE ARE NOW
LIVING IN PARKING GARAGES.
OTHERS PICKED UP
WHAT THEY COULD
AND MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND
ON THE INTERSTATE,
REFUGEES IN THEIR OWN
HOME TOWN.
[WOMAN]
WE DON'T HAVE TRANSPORTATION.
I MEAN, WE LIVING
PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK.
IT AIN'T LIKE WE'RE JUST ABLE
TO GET UP AND JUST LEAVE.
[REPORTER]
THOSE PEOPLE WHO IGNORED
THE EVACUATION ORDERS
ARE SIMPLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAI AND RESCUE THEMSELVES.
[REPORTER]
THOUSANDS OF EVACUEES
SOUGHT REFUGE
INSIDE THE SUPER DOME,
ONLY TO BE SUBJECTED
TO AN UNSPEAKABLE
BREAKDOWN OF LAW AND ORDER.
[SNYDER]
WHAT KATRINA SHOWS IS
THAT CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS
CAN CREATE MASSIVE DISTRESS
ON A SCALE OF A WHOLE URBAN AREA
AND THAT THAT MASSIVE DISTRESS
CAN INVOLVE THE COLLAPSE
OF STATE STRUCTURES.
[MAN]
YOU WOULD NEVER, NEVER IMAGINE
WHAT YOU SAW IN THE CONVENTION
CENTER IN NEW ORLEANS.
THEY ARE JUST LEFT BEHIND.
THERE'S NOTHING OFFERED TO THEM
FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS.
THEY GOT CHILDREN OUT HERE!
THEY GOT PREGNAN WOMEN OUT HERE!
THEY WON'T EVEN BRING WATER!
THEY WON'T BRING FOOD!
YOU GOTTA GO STEAL WATER
TO DRINK TO SURVIVE OUT HERE.
[SNYDER]
ONE CAN TRY
TO BRACKET THAT OFF
AS SOME KIND
OF EXCEPTIONAL EVENT,
BUT IN FACT KATRINA IS
A PERFECTLY NORMAL DEMONSTRATION
OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.
DROP.
IF THE WEATHER
GETS TO THE POIN WHERE IT CAN BREAK DOWN
CITY GOVERNMENTS,
AND LET'S SAY IT HAPPENS
TO TWO OR THREE CITY GOVERNMENTS
AT THE SAME TIME
AND FEDERAL AUTHORITIES
ARE NOT ONLY UNWILLING
BUT UNABLE TO ASSIST,
THEN YOU GET HURRICANE KATRINA
ON A NATIONAL SCALE.
WE WANT HELP!
WE WANT HELP!
WE WANT HELP!
[TITLEY]
WE'VE BUILT SOCIETY
ON THIS IMPLICIT ASSUMPTION
OF CLIMATE STABILITY.
WITHIN BOUNDS, WE KNOW
WHAT WE'RE GONNA GET.
WE KNOW WHEN TO PLANT.
WE KNOW ABOUT HOW MUCH
RAIN IS GONNA COME.
BECAUSE WE BUILT OUR SOCIETY
ON THIS CLIMATE STABILITY
AND THAT STABILITY IS CHANGING,
ALL THESE THINGS
THAT WE TAKE FOR GRANTED,
THEY'RE NO JUST GIVENS ANYMORE.
[REPORTER]
ACROSS THE SAHEL,
THE CROPS HAVE FAILED.
HUNGER IS STALKING
TENS OF MILLIONS.
[REPORTER]
PEOPLE ARE ABANDONING
THEIR LIVESTOCK
AND MOVING TO WHEREVER
THEY CAN FIND WATER.
[REPORTER]
RELIEF WORKERS FEAR IF MORE
HELP DOESN'T COME SOON,
MILLIONS WILL STARVE.
[SEAGER]
THE SAHEL IS
THE SEMI-ARID REGION
THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALL THE WAY OVER TO ETHIOPIA.
IT'S THE TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN THE SAHARA
AND THE MORE HUMID,
FORESTED CONDITIONS
FURTHER SOUTH.
THAT IS A VERY
DROUGHT-PRONE REGION.
THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE
MAKING THEIR LIVELIHOOD
OFF AGRICULTURE,
AND WHENEVER
THERE ARE DROUGHTS,
IT LEADS A LOT OF PEOPLE
TO MIGRATE.
THE SAHEL IS ALREADY
A MAJOR CONFLICT ZONE,
BOTH WITH ISLAMIC MILITANTS
AND ALSO NATIONALISTS.
[PARENTI]
THIS IS THE HEAR OF THE PROBLEM IN MANY WAYS.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ARRIVES IN A WORLD
THAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN DESTABILIZED.
[REPORTER]
DARFUR, THE WORLD'S WORS HUMANITARIAN CRISIS.
MORE THAN 2 MILLION PEOPLE
FORCED TO FLEE THEIR HOMES
IN WHAT'S WIDELY PORTRAYED
AS AN ETHNIC CONFLICT.
BUT CLIMATIC CHANGES
MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR.
THIS IS A REGION
WHERE WATER'S GETTING SCARCER
AND ARABLE LAND SHRINKING,
PITTING ARAB NOMADIC GRAZERS
AGAINST THE PREDOMINANTLY
BLACK FARMERS.
A LOT OF THE VIOLENCE
THAT IS NOW ACCELERATED
BY CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTUALLY HAS ITS ROOTS IN THESE
OLDER, DEEPER CONFLICTS.
THE DROUGHT EXACERBATED
EXISTING SOCIETAL CLEAVAGES.
THERE IT WAS MUSLIM
AND CHRISTIAN.
IT WAS THE HERDERS
VERSUS THE AGRARIANS.
IN EVERY CASE, CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTED AS
A THREAT MULTIPLIER.
[MAN WHIMPERING]
[REPORTER]
THE NUMBERS FROM DARFUR
ARE STAGGERING.
SINCE 2003, AN ESTIMATED 400,000
PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED.
ANOTHER 2 1/2 MILLION HAVE BEEN
FORCED INTO REFUGEE CAMPS
IN NEIGHBORING
COUNTRIES LIKE CHAD.
[BABY CRYING]
[REPORTER]
DROUGHT AND HUNGER HAVE
MADE COMMUNITIES VULNERABLE.
COUPS AND REBELLIONS
HAVE MADE IT UNSTABLE.
THIS FRAGILE STATE
IS NOW THREATENED
BY POVERTY AND NEGLECT.
[PARENTI]
CLIMATE CHANGE UNFOLDS
ON THE LANDSCAPE,
MAKING THEIR LIVES HARDER.
BUT THE POVERTY
THAT WAS ORIGINALLY THERE
MAKES THE RESPONSE
TO CLIMATE CHANGE WORSE.
[REPORTER]
A STAGGERING 30 MILLION PEOPLE
ARE THOUGHT TO SURVIVE
ON LAKE CHAD'S ECOSYSTEM.
BUT WHAT WAS ONCE
OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST LAKES
HAS IN JUST 40 YEARS
SHRUNK BY 90%.
[REPORTER]
LAKE CHAD, WHERE
BOKO HARAM FIGHTERS
HAVE LAUNCHED RECENT ATTACKS.
[KING]
WATER SCARCITY HAS CAUSED
MIGRATION AND INSTABILITY
WHICH BOKO HARAM HAS BEEN ABLE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF.
WHERE THERE IS ALREADY
INSTABILITY,
EXTREMISTS THRIVE.
[REPORTER]
MORE THAN A MILLION PEOPLE
HAVE BEEN FORCED TO FLEE FROM
BOKO HARAM'S WAVE OF TERROR.
[BREEN]
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MODELING
THAT'S BEING DONE NOW
FOR NORTH AFRICA,
WE SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE DRYING.
WE SEE SIGNIFICAN PRECIPITATION DECLINE
WELL BEYOND WHAT IT IS NOW.
[SNYDER]
AFRICA'S A PLACE WHERE
VERY LARGE NUMBERS
OF PEOPLE NEED MORE LAND.
AT THE SAME TIME, SOMETHING LIKE
HALF OF THE UNUSED ARABLE LAND
IN THE WORLD
IS IN AFRICA.
[REPORTER]
IS COLONIALISM TAKING ROO IN AFRICA ONCE AGAIN?
SOME OF THE COUNTRIES
ON THAT CONTINEN MAY BE THE POORES IN THE WORLD,
BUT THE LUSH FARMLANDS
ARE THE ENVY
OF RICHER NATIONS
WITH INFERTILE SOIL.
[SNYDER]
WE'VE ALREADY SEEN
IN THE NOT-SO-DISTANT PAS HOW CHINA,
WHEN THERE'S A DROUGHT,
WILL PANIC-BUY
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES.
WHAT IF THINGS WERE MUCH WORSE?
WHAT IF THAT SAME COUNTRY
THOUGHT THAT IT DOESN' JUST NEED TO PANIC-BUY,
IT NEEDS TO BUY OR LEASE
VAST TERRITORIES?
THIS IS A SCENARIO
WHICH COULD UNFOLD GRADUALLY
WITHOUT ANYONE
REALLY SEEING IT COMING.
SLOWLY, SLOWLY, SLOWLY,
CHINA CONTROLS,
AT LEAST LEGALLY,
AN AWFUL LOT OF TERRITORY
BEYOND ITS BORDERS.
WHETHER ONE WANTS TO MORALIZE
AND CALL THAT A LAND GRAB,
YOU CAN GET A SITUATION
WHERE THE LOCAL PEOPLE
COULD HAVE ANOTHER IDEA.
[SNYDER]
IF YOU'RE CHINESE AUTHORITIES,
YOU WOULD RATHER HAVE
INSTABILITY IN AFRICA
THAN INSTABILITY AT HOME.
WE TAKE OUR LIFESTYLE
AS BEING A FIXED POIN AND THEN IF ANYTHING'S
GOING TO CHANGE,
IT'S GONNA BE SOMETHING ELSE,
PREFERABLY SOMETHING FAR AWAY.
IN THE UNITED STATES,
ALTHOUGH WE'VE DONE THE MOS TO PROMOTE GLOBAL WARMING,
WE'RE GONNA GET HIT BY I AFTER OTHER PEOPLE
ARE GONNA BE HIT BY IT.
IN ADVANCED SOCIETIES,
WE'RE VERY VULNERABLE
TO CONFUSING LIFESTYLE
WITH LIFE ITSELF.
[CROWD SHOUTING]
[REPORTER]
AS THE SITUATION IN SYRIA
HAS DETERIORATED SHARPLY,
JORDAN'S ZA'ATARI CAMP
FOR SYRIAN REFUGEES
IS NOW THE SIZE OF A CITY.
[BREEN]
AFTER LEAVING THE ARMY
I WORKED
WITH REFUGEES ON THE GROUND
IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
IN SYRIA, JORDAN, LEBANON,
HAVING SEEN WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN MILLIONS OF PEOPLE
UPROOT AND LEAVE A PLACE,
THE IMPACT IT HAS ON THEM,
THE IMPACT IT HAS ON THE COUNTRY
THEY'VE TAKEN REFUGE IN,
THIS HAS MAJOR CONSEQUENCES.
THAT ON A MASSIVE SCALE WHERE
WHOLE NATIONS ARE ON THE MOVE
MAY BE WHAT WE'RE FACING
IN CERTAIN CLIMATE SCENARIOS.
[REPORTER]
THE WORLD IS IN THE GRIPS
OF THE WORST REFUGEE CRISIS
SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WAR.
THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THOSE REFUGEES
ARE HOSTED BY SOME OF
THE WORLD'S POOREST COUNTRIES.
[REPORTER]
THIS CAMP IS JUST OVERWHELMED
BY THE AMOUN OF PEOPLE COMING HERE.
[REPORTER]
FOR THE REFUGEES, IT'S BEEN
A LITANY OF KILLINGS,
KIDNAPPINGS, HUNGER,
AND ECONOMIC CHAOS.
[REPORTER]
THE U.N.'S REFUGEE AGENCY
ESTIMATES THE CURRENT TOTAL
AT ALMOST 60 MILLION.
SHOCKINGLY, HALF ARE CHILDREN.
[ANTONIO GUTERRES]
WE DON'T HAVE THE RESOURCES
TO SUPPORT ALL THE VICTIMS
OF CONFLICT AROUND THE WORLD.
WE ARE NO LONGER
ABLE TO PICK UP THE PIECES.
[FEMIA]
THE LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD
IS DEFINITELY
A HUMAN SECURITY RISK.
IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS,
IT CAN BECOME AN INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY RISK.
[REPORTER]
A DESPERATE SEARCH FOR NEARLY
1,000 PEOPLE FEARED DEAD
AFTER A SHIP
PACKED WITH MIGRANTS
CAPSIZED IN
THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA.
IT IS THE LATEST IN A STRING
OF DEADLY MIGRANT BOAT SINKINGS.
[REPORTER]
REFUGEES FLEEING ISIS
AND OTHER MILITANTS
TRYING DESPERATELY
TO CROSS INTO EUROPE.
[REPORTER]
ITALY'S COAST GUARD AND NAVY
RESCUED 11,000 PEOPLE
FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN
IN THE LAST WEEK ALONE.
EUROPE IS SUFFERING
A MAJOR MIGRATION CRISIS
BECAUSE OF
THE CONFLICTS IN SYRIA,
THE WIDER MIDDLE EAST,
AND EAST AFRICA.
[REPORTER]
THEY'VE BEEN ARRIVING
BY THE BOATLOADS
ON EUROPEAN SHORES DAILY.
NOW THE HEAD OF THE U.N.'S
REFUGEE AGENCY
IS CALLING THE MIGRANT CRISIS
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
TOTAL CHAOS.
[CHENEY]
THEY'RE WILLING
TO RISK THEIR LIVES
AND THEIR FAMILY LIVES
TO GET TO EUROPE.
THAT'S PRETTY DESPERATE.
[SHOUTING]
[REPORTER]
IT'S A REFUGEE CRISIS
WITH NO PRECEDEN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION'S HISTORY.
[REPORTER]
AS THEIR NUMBERS SPIRAL
ALONG WITH THE DEATH COUNT,
EUROPE IS UNDER
ACUTE PRESSURE TO ACT.
[REPORTER]
TENSIONS ARE AT BOILING POINT.
[REPORTER]
MACEDONIA CLOSED ITS BORDER.
SPECIAL FORCES FIRED
STUN GRENADES INTO THE CROWD.
[REPORTER]
THE E.U.'s RESPONSE
HAS BEEN CRITICIZED
AS AT BES INCOHERENT AND AT WORS CALLOUS AND INHUMANE.
[MAN]
WE'RE GONNA PUT IN MORE FENCING,
MORE RESOURCES.
[PARENTI]
THE POLITICS
OF THE ARMED LIFEBOA REFERS TO AN ACKNOWLEDGEMEN THAT, YES, THERE IS A CRISIS,
BUT, NO, WE ARE NO ALL IN IT TOGETHER.
WE HAVE TO KEEP THE VICTIMS
OF THIS CRISIS OU SO WE CAN CARRY ON AS BEFORE
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WALL.
[SULLIVAN]
WHAT'S ALARMING
IS THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE
IN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES
TAKING THE RISKS THEY DO.
[WOMAN SPEAKING
IN NATIVE LANGUAGE]
PEOPLE IN COUNTRIES
WHERE INSTABILITY WAS REIGNING,
THEY FEEL THAT THEY HAVE
NO OTHER CHOICE.
[REPORTER]
WITH THE CONTINUING TURMOIL
IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
THE NUMBER OF DESPERATE PEOPLE
WILLING TO RISK EVERYTHING
IS EXPECTED TO RISE.
OKAY?
[TITLEY]
WHEN WE REALLY STEP BACK,
PEOPLE ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME.
WE WANT ADEQUATE FOOD,
ADEQUATE SHELTER,
SAFE WATER.
IF YOU HAVE LARGE NUMBERS
OF DISPLACED PEOPLE
AND THEIR NEEDS
ARE NOT BEING MET,
THEN THIS BECOMES
A POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY.
[COUGHING]
[MAN SPEAKS NATIVE LANGUAGE]
[PARENTI]
WHO IS A CLIMATE REFUGEE
AND WHO IS AN ECONOMIC REFUGEE?
IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY.
THE TWO THINGS
ARE BOUND UP TOGETHER.
MOST CLIMATE REFUGEES
ARE NOT DISPLACED
SO CLEARLY BY CLIMATE CHANGE.
RATHER IT'S A MIX OF FORCES
THAT DRIVES THEM
OFF THE LAND.
[KING]
UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW,
THERE IS NO STATUS
OF CLIMATE REFUGEE.
PART OF THIS IS POLITICAL.
BECAUSE IF THERE WERE,
THEN IT WOULD COMPEL NATIONS
TO ACCEPT CLIMATE MIGRANTS
AS ASYLEES.
[SNYDER]
THE LONGER
THAT CLIMATE CHANGE GOES ON,
THE MORE THAT WE FEEL IT,
THE MORE
THAT WE EXPERIENCE IT,
PEOPLE ARE GONNA
WANNA COME NORTH.
THE ONLY BORDER WHICH IS REAL
IS THE ATMOSPHERE.
EVERYTHING ELSE IS PERMEABLE.
[FUERTH]
LINEAR THINKING SAYS
THAT IF YOU HAVE
A CHANGE OF A CERTAIN MAGNITUDE
IN A SYSTEM,
YOU CAN PREDICT THE CHANGE
IN ITS OUTPUT.
NON-LINEARITY SAYS
RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES
CAN LEAD TO VERY LARGE
AND UNPREDICTABLE CIRCUMSTANCES
ON THE OUTPUT SIDE.
LET'S SUPPOSE THAT THE RATE
OF WHICH THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
IS NOT LINEAR BUT IS ON A CURVE
THAT'S GETTING VERY STEEP.
TAKE THE RATE AT WHICH
ARCTIC ICE IS MELTING,
THE RATE AT WHICH
THE GLACIERS ARE RETREATING.
AT THE BEGINNING
OF THESE PROCESSES,
YOU CREATE A GRAPH.
IF I START MEASURING
OVER TIME,
I KEEP ON DISCOVERING
THINGS ARE HAPPENING FASTER
THAN YOU MIGHT EXPECT.
AND ALL OF
OUR OLD PROJECTIONS
TURN OUT TO BE
EXCESSIVELY CONSERVATIVE.
I WORRY ABOUT A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE RATE AT WHICH
WE SET OU TO DEAL WITH THESE THINGS
AND THE RATE AT WHICH
THEY ARE OCCURRING.
WHAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGH IS A PROBLEM
OF COMPOUNDING RISK.
A GOOD EXAMPLE IS BANGLADESH.
[MUNIR MUNIRUZZAMAN]
BANGLADESH IS PROBABLY THE
GROUND ZERO OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
THE IMPACTS ARE GOING
TO BE MORE SEVERE
IN BANGLADESH
THAN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES
WHERE THEY HAVE
SMALLER POPULATION SIZE.
[BREEN]
IN A CLIMATE SCENARIO
WHERE SEA LEVEL RISE OCCURS,
ESPECIALLY
IF IT OCCURS RAPIDLY,
THERE'S A REAL RISK
THAT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE BANGLADESHI POPULATION
IS GONNA HAVE TO MOVE.
[MUNIRUZZAMAN]
THE SEA LEVEL WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE IN THE COMING YEARS,
BECAUSE THERE IS MELTING
AT A FASTER RATE THAN EVER.
IF THERE IS A ONE-METER
SEA LEVEL RISE,
BANGLADESH WILL LOSE ABOU 20% OF ITS LAND MASS.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE
A VERY LARGE
CLIMATE REFUGEE POPULATION.
RESEARCHERS HAVE
ESTIMATED THE NUMBERS
TO BE ABOUT 30 MILLION.
THIS IS A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
OF EPIC PROPORTIONS.
WHERE ARE THESE REFUGEES
GOING TO GO?
[MUNIRUZZAMAN]
INDIA HAS ALREADY
UNILATERALLY FENCED BANGLADESH
ON ALL THREE SIDES.
[BREEN]
A TEN-FOOT, DOUBLE-SIDED,
RAZOR-WIRE-TOPPED, WHAT MAY BE
THE WORLD'S FIRST CLIMATE FENCE.
[REPORTER]
IT'S INSPIRED BY ISRAEL'S WALL
IN THE WEST BANK,
AND IT'S MANNED BY 80,000
INDIAN GUARDS.
DEATH CAN BE THE PENALTY
FOR CROSSING I OR EVEN GOING NEAR IT,
WITH HUNDREDS OF UNARMED
VILLAGERS KILLED
ALONG WHAT IS NOW
ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS
FRONTIERS IN THE WORLD.
[BREEN]
THERE ARE OTHER REASONS
FOR INDIA TO BUILD THAT FENCE,
BUT PROBABLY THE MOST PRESSING
AND STRATEGIC REASON
IS TO FORESTALL
THAT CLIMATE MIGRATION.
[MUNIRUZZAMAN]
NO FACTOR CAN BE EXCLUDED
FROM THE IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
WE HAVE GOT TO SEE
THE CONSEQUENCES
OF THE CONSEQUENCES.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE
MULTIPLE STRESSORS
COMING AT ONE POIN AT ONE TIME.
STRESS ON THE WATER SECTOR,
FOOD SECTOR,
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE,
THAT COULD LEAD
TO A STATE COLLAPSE.
IT WILL BE A PROBLEM
OF THE MAGNITUDE
THAT WILL DESTABILIZE
NOT ONLY BANGLADESH,
BUT IT WILL SEVERELY IMPAC ON INTERNATIONAL STABILITY,
HAVING CONSEQUENCES
BEYOND IMAGINATION.
WE DON'T NOW HAVE THE LUXURY,
AND WE PROBABLY NEVER WILL,
OF SORT OF ISOLATING
ONE DRIVER OF A SITUATION
AND SAYING, "OKAY, LET'S SOLVE
FOR THAT DRIVER."
WE'RE ALWAYS GOING TO BE
DEALING WITH A LAYER CAKE
OF INTER-CONNECTED PROBLEMS.
SO IF YOU HAVE
A CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIO
THAT'S SUFFICIENT TO RAISE
THE SEA LEVEL IN BANGLADESH,
WHAT IS THA TEMPERATURE SPIKE DOING
TO THE HIMALAYAN ICE CAPS
THAT SUPPLY
THE ANNUAL WATER CYCLE
FOR MOST OF
THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
IN THE ASIAN-PACIFIC REGION?
SO NOW YOU'VE GOT POTENTIAL
DROUGHT AND FOOD SCARCITY
IN ONE AREA
THAT'S INTERSECTING
WITH FLOODING AND MASSIVE
REFUGEE FLOWS IN THE OTHER AREA.
WHAT'S THE POLITICAL
SITUATION WHEN IT HAPPENS?
IF INDIA AND CHINA
ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE
A BORDER DISPUTE
DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME,
THAT BORDER DISPUTE JUST GO A LOT MORE SERIOUS.
THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT COULD PLACE
MASSIVE STRESS
ON THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM.
IT'S THESE COMPOUNDING
RISK FACTORS,
THESE COMPOUNDING DYNAMICS
THAT I THINK OUGH TO REALLY CONCERN US.
[FUERTH]
IF YOU LOOK AT ISSUES
OF WATER FLOW
FROM THE HIMALAYAN PLATEAU,
THERE ARE COUNTRIES THA ARE ON THE RECEIVING END
OF THOSE FLOWS OF WATER
THAT ARE NUCLEAR-ARMED.
IF THE SUPPLY OF WATER
BECOMES INCREASINGLY TIGHT,
THEN IF SOMEBODY DECIDES
TO BUILD A DAM ON THEIR SIDE,
THAT CAN LOOK TO SOMEBODY
ON THE LOSING END
LIKE AN ACT OF WAR.
THE RISK OF ANY CONFLIC IN THE MODERN WORLD
IS MAGNIFIED BY THE FAC THAT AT THE END
OF A CHAIN OF ESCALATION,
YOU MIGHT ARRIVE AT COUNTRIES
THAT HAVE WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
[BREEN]
OUR ENTIRE WAY OF LIFE
IS BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS.
EVERYTHING THAT YOU USE
AND TOUCH IN YOUR DAILY LIFE
IN THIS
HIGHLY-ADVANCED ECONOMY
IS MOVED TO YOU
USING THAT SINGLE SOURCE.
THERE'S ABSOLUTELY A LINK
BETWEEN THE WAY WE USE ENERGY
AND OUR SECURITY.
OIL IS A GLOBALLY-TRADED
COMMODITY.
EVENTS AROUND THE WORLD
IMPACT THE SUPPLY
AND THE PRICE HERE AT HOME.
WHEN GEO-POLITICAL
DECISIONS ARE MADE,
THE PRICE CAN GO DOWN,
THE PRICE CAN GO UP.
MANY OF OUR RELATIONSHIPS
WITH AUTOCRACIES
HAVE BEEN BASED IN PAR ON ASSURING THE SUPPLY
OF FOSSIL FUELS.
WE SPEND A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF TIME
KEEPING THA GLOBAL SUPPLY FLOWING,
PROTECTING IT.
[REPORTER]
THE THREATS
ARE BEING RAMPED UP
OVER A VITAL
OIL SHIPPING ROUTE
WHICH IRAN
IS THREATENING TO BLOCK.
[REPORTER]
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
LINKS THE OIL-PRODUCING STATES
OF BAHRAIN, KUWAIT,
QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA,
AND THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.
THAT'S ABOUT 40% OF THE WORLD'S
OIL THAT'S SHIPPED.
IT'S A MAJOR ARTERY.
WE SPEND $85 BILLION A YEAR
DEFENDING STRATEGIC
CHOKE POINTS,
PLACES LIKE THE STRAITS
OF HARMUZ NEAR IRAN
OR THE STRAITS OF MALACCA
IN THE HEAVILY-CONTESTED
SOUTH CHINA SEA.
REAL DISRUPTION WOULD HAVE
CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES
FOR OUR ECONOMY.
ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES
CREATES THE ARENA FOR CONFLIC AND DEFINING WHAT THE PLAYING
FIELD WILL LOOK LIKE.
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS IN THAT MIX OF CAUSES.
IN SOME CASES,
IT'S CHANGING THE MAP ITSELF.
[REPORTER]
MELTING ICE CAPS IN THE ARCTIC
HAVE IGNITED
A MILITARY BUILDUP.
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
IS BELIEVED TO CONTAIN 30%
OF THE WORLD'S
UNDISCOVERED NATURAL GAS
AND 15% OF ITS OIL.
AS THE ICE MELTS,
IT OPENS UP RESOURCES.
IT OPENS UP TRADE ROUTES.
IT OPENS UP LAND CLAIMS
THAT COULD BECOME
MORE CONTENTIOUS.
[REPORTER]
RUSSIA IS MAKING
A VERY BOLD MOVE,
PLANTING ITS FLAG
ON THE ARCTIC SEA FLOOR.
[REPORTER]
RUSSIA IS HOLDING
MILITARY EXERCISES
INVOLVING TENS
OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS.
[REPORTER]
IT'S DISPUTED TERRITORY WITH
THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA.
[REPORTER]
MANY FEAR A 21st-CENTURY
COLD WAR IN THE FROZEN WATERS.
[MAN]
I'M HONORED TO WELCOME THREE
FORMER SECRETARIES OF STATE.
[GEORGE SCHULTZ]
WE'VE STARTED A PROJEC ON THE ARCTIC.
THERE'S A NEW OCEAN
BEING CREATED THERE.
THAT HASN'T HAPPENED
SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE.
THERE ARE BIG MELTS ALL OVER
THE WORLD TAKING PLACE.
THE CLIMATE'S CHANGING.
AND THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES.
[BREEN]
IF YOU SAY THERE'S NO CONNECTION
BETWEEN SECURITY AND CLIMATE,
OR BETWEEN OIL
AND OUR NATIONAL SECURITY,
IF YOU SERVED
IN THESE CONFLICTS,
IF YOU FOUGHT A WAR
IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
IF YOU FOUGH IN A BURNING OIL FIELD,
YOU MIGH HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEW.
[MAN ON RADIO]
CONVOY BE ADVISED,
BORDER PATROL VEHICLE
ON THE LEFT-HAND SIDE.
MY FIRST DEPLOYMENT,
I WAS A YOUNG LIEUTENAN WITH AN INFANTRY UNIT IN IRAQ
SOUTH OF BAGHDAD
IN AN AREA THAT WAS SATURATED
WITH IMPROVISED
EXPLOSIVE DEVICES.
IT CAME TO BE KNOWN
AS THE TRIANGLE OF DEATH.
THAT AMERICAN MILITARY UNI ON THE GROUND
IN IRAQ OR AFGHANISTAN
HAS GOT TO RELY
ON A FUEL SUPPLY
THAT COMES A GREAT DISTANCE
AT RISK AND COS TO REACH THEM.
EVERY DAY,
A LOGISTICS CONVOY
WOULD HAVE TO LEAVE
BAGHDAD AIRPOR AND DRIVE TO OUR
FORWARD OPERATING BASE.
WE WERE TAKING THE FUEL FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY'S DELIVERY,
PUTTING IT IN A BUNCH
OF BRADLEY FIGHTING VEHICLES,
GOING OUT TO ESCORT THE CONVOY
IN WITH THAT FUEL,
USING A LOT OF THE FUEL,
AND THEN PUTTING
THE NEXT DAY'S FUEL
RIGHT IN THE BRADLEYS
TO DO ALL OVER AGAIN.
WE TOOK THIS HIGHLY
CAPABLE COMBAT FORCE
AND TURNED IT INTO, BASICALLY,
A SELF-LICKING ICE CREAM CONE.
[MAN ON RADIO]
...IS HIT.
...IS DOWN.
[BREEN]
ALMOST EVERY DAY,
THAT CONVOY WAS ATTACKED.
[MAN]
NEXT, WE'RE GOING TO HEAR
FROM MR. MICHAEL BREEN,
WHO IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
OF THE TRUMAN
NATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT.
-WELCOME, SIR.
-THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN.
CHAIRMAN MARQUIS,
RANKING MEMBER BRASSO,
THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY
TO TESTIFY TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WE FIND OURSELVES
IN A CONSIDERABLY
BETTER POSITION
WITH REGARD TO ENERGY
THAN THAT OF SEVERAL YEARS AGO,
THE LACK OF DIVERSIFIED
ENERGY SOURCES AROUND THE WORLD
CONTINUES TO CREATE
VULNERABILITIES
FOR THE UNITED STATES
AND OUR ALLIES.
IN ADDITION,
CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES OUR CURREN ENERGY SYSTEM UNSUSTAINABLE,
CREATING CASCADING RISKS
AND IMPACTS AROUND THE GLOBE.
THE U.S. SHOULD PLACE
GREATER EMPHASIS
ON EFFICIENCY ALONG
WITH THE DEVELOPMEN OF RENEWABLE SOURCES,
AND MORE RESILIEN DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS.
THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
IS ONE OF THE LARGES CUSTOMERS IN THE WORLD,
SO WHEN THE DEPARTMEN INVESTS IN TECHNOLOGIES
THAT ARE STILL VERY IMMATURE,
THEY'RE TAKING
A VERY LONG VIEW
OF WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO NEED
IN THE FUTURE.
THOSE LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
DO HAVE A GREAT BENEFI OFTEN FOR
THE CIVILIAN ECONOMY.
IF THE MILITARY HAD SETTLED
ON COMPASS TECHNOLOGY
AS THE PERFECT ANSWER
TO NAVIGATION,
WE NEVER WOULD HAVE HAD GPS.
SO TO STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE,
WE HAVE TO KEEP INVESTING.
[RAY MABUS]
AND ONE OF THE THINGS
I GET ASKED IN HEARINGS
DEFENDING THE BUDGET IS,
"IS THIS THE RIGHT TIME
TO BE INVESTING IN STUFF
LIKE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY?"
AND MY RESPONSE IS,
"WE CAN'T AFFORD NOT TO NOW."
[REPORTER]
SECRETARY OF THE NAVY
RAY MABUS TOOK PAR IN SIGNING A CONTRAC FOR THE LARGEST BIOFUEL
PURCHASE IN GOVERNMENT HISTORY.
[REPORTER]
IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS,
THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY
PLANS TO GENERATE
ALL OF THEIR OWN ELECTRICITY
THROUGH RENEWABLE SOURCES.
[BREEN]
I'M ENCOURAGED THAT THE MILITARY
IS CONTINUING TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE DEVELOPMEN OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES,
BUT I DON'T THINK WE CAN
BE COMPLACENT ABOUT THIS.
OUR MILITARY IN THE U.S.,
EVERY MILITARY,
IS ULTIMATELY IN THE BUSINESS
OF PREVENTING, HOPEFULLY,
OR PROSECUTING AND WINNING WARS,
AND WAR IS A DESTRUCTIVE
HUMAN ACTIVITY.
MILITARIES ARE NO GONNA SOLVE THIS FOR US.
AN ARMORED DIVISION IS NO GONNA DEFEAT CLIMATE CHANGE.
[BURKE]
YOU DON'T WANNA TURN
TO YOUR MILITARY
TO SOLVE WHAT ARE REALLY
CIVIL SOCIETY PROBLEMS.
THAT'S A DANGEROUS GAME.
THEY DO NEED TO UNDERSTAND
HOW IT ALL FITS TOGETHER,
BECAUSE THAT'S GONNA AFFEC WHAT THEY NEED TO BE READY FOR,
BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN
IT'S THEIR MISSION TO FIX IT.
[FEMIA]
WHAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGH IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT WE'LL HAVE A WORLD
WHERE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE SO DIRE AND SO
POTENTIALLY UNMANAGEABLE
THAT GOVERNMENTS
START ACTING IN WAYS
THAT ARE AUTHORITARIAN.
THAT'S A WORLD
THAT I DON'T WANNA LIVE IN.
THAT'S A WORLD I DON'T WAN MY CHILDREN TO LIVE IN.
AND IT'S A WORLD
THAT WE SEE IN THESE SCENARIOS
THAT THE UNITED STATES
MILITARY PRODUCES.
[RONALD REAGAN]
WE'RE AT WAR WITH THE MOS DANGEROUS ENEMY
THAT HAS EVER FACED MANKIND
IN HIS LONG CLIMB
FROM THE SWAMP TO THE STARS,
AND IT'S BEEN SAID
IF WE LOSE THAT WAR
AND IN SO DOING LOSE
THIS WAY OF FREEDOM OF OURS,
HISTORY WILL RECORD
WITH THE GREATEST ASTONISHMEN THAT THOSE
WHO HAD THE MOST TO LOSE
DID THE LEAS TO PREVENT ITS HAPPENING.
[GOODMAN]
WE SPENT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
OF OUR GDP DURING THE COLD WAR
TO REDUCE THE THREA OF NUCLEAR ATTACK,
WHICH IS LOW PROBABILITY
BUT VERY HIGH CONSEQUENCE.
NOW WE FACE RISKS
FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
THAT ARE ARGUABLY AS SEVERE
AND OF HIGHER PROBABILITY,
AND YET THERE IS
IN SOME QUARTERS
A RELUCTANCE TO FACE UP
TO THE CHALLENGES
AND BUILD A RESILIENT SOCIETY.
[GUNS FIRING]
WHETHER IT'S THREATS
FROM NUCLEAR WEAPONS
OR INTERNATIONAL
TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS,
ANY PERCENTAGE
IS UNACCEPTABLE.
WHEN YOU THINK
ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
AS A RISK-MANAGEMENT ISSUE,
THEN ALL OF THE ACTIONS
WE NEED TO TAKE
ARE GOING TO BE
ON THE TABLE.
IF WE DON'T, THEN WE'RE
GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE
SOME VERY, VERY
DIFFICULT CHOICES.
[BREEN]
WHERE CAN WE MAKE OURSELVES
MORE RESILIENT?
WHERE CAN WE MAKE OURSELVES
MORE PREPARED?
WHERE CAN WE ACT NOW
IN ORDER TO MITIGATE
THE CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS
THAT WERE MADE SINCE
THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?
THERE'S A DIFFICULT TRUTH
WE'VE GOTTA FACE HERE.
AS WE'VE SEEN RISING
AWARENESS OF THE PROBLEM,
WE'VE CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE
OUR CONTRIBUTION.
REVERSING THAT MAY BE
THE MOST DIFFICUL COLLECTIVE-ACTION PROBLEM
WE'VE EVER FACED.
[MADELEINE ALBRIGHT]
I DO THINK THE BIGGEST THREA IS CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ITS NATIONAL
SECURITY ASPECTS.
OUR PROBLEM IS THA NOT EVERYTHING CAN BE
HANDLED MILITARILY,
AND THAT WE ALSO HAVE
A SHORT ATTENTION SPAN.
THESE ARE VERY
LONG-TERM PROBLEMS.
[FEMIA]
THIS IS A WHOLE
OF SOCIETY ISSUE.
WE HAVE TO ADDRESS I IN ALL OF OUR INSTITUTIONS.
THAT MEANS
ALL ASPECTS OF GOVERNMENT.
IT MEANS THE RESOURCES
AND THE POLITICAL WILL.
[ALBRIGHT]
IT IS A MATTER OF COOPERATING,
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THESE ISSUES,
IT WILL REQUIRE
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP
WITHIN A SYSTEM THAT OTHER
COUNTRIES PLAY A PART IN.
[CHENEY]
WE HAVE TO LEAD.
THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES,
WE'RE THE ONES WHO ARE DOING
THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE POLLUTING HERE IN THE WORLD.
WE GOTTA STEP UP TO THIS.
EVERY ASPECT OF NATIONAL
SECURITY IS ABOUT MANAGING RISK.
OUR POLITICIANS IN MY OPINION
SHOULD TAKE A LESSON
FROM THE MILITARY.
THEY SHOULD START PRUDEN ACTION TO REDUCE EMISSIONS.
[TITLEY]
CONGRESS WON'T LEAD
ON THIS ISSUE,
BUT THEY CAN BE LED.
THAT'S WHY
I CONTINUE TO GO AROUND
AND TALK ABOUT THIS ISSUE.
WE NEED TO FIND
POLICY SOLUTIONS
THAT CAN DEAL WITH IT.
[BURKE]
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I FIND
PERSONALLY REALLY DISTRESSING,
HAVING WORKED
FOR REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS,
IS THAT SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE
A POINT OF CONVERGENCE
HAS BECOME SO DIVISIVE.
THIS POLARIZATION
HAS ALLOWED US
TO NOT REALLY ADDRESS
WHAT WE REALLY NEED TO DO.
RESILIENCE AND IMPROVING
OUR ABILITY TO RESPOND,
THOSE ARE THE LEAS THAT WE SHOULD BE DOING.
THAT'S, IN MILITARY PARLANCE,
THE FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE.
[BREEN]
ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS
THEY EVER TAUGHT ME
AS A COMBAT LEADER
WAS CHOOSING TO DO NOTHING
IS A CHOICE.
INACTION IS AS MUCH
OF A DECISION
AS ANY OTHER
COURSE OF ACTION,
AND IT CARRIES
THOSE CONSEQUENCES.
[FUERTH]
IT'S A VERY DANGEROUS THING
TO DECIDE THAT THERE IS ONE
AND ONLY ONE LINE OF EVENTS
HEADING INTO THE FUTURE
AND ONE AND ONLY ONE BES RESPONSE FOR DEALING WITH THAT.
WHEN SYSTEMS BECOME INVESTED
IN AN OLD WAY OF THINKING,
THERE IS A MOMEN WHEN THOSE STRUCTURES
START TO BREAK DOWN.
THE SYSTEM RESISTS
THE IDEA OF CHANGE
TO A CERTAIN POINT,
AND THEN THE WEIGH OF COLLECTIVE EXPERIENCE
SAYS "SOMETHING'S
NOT WORKING HERE.
WE NEED A CHANGE."
I DON'T THINK YOU GE TO THAT MOMENT BY SLOW DEGREES.
I THINK IT OCCURS
LIKE AN AVALANCHE.
AND THERE COMES A MOMEN WHEN YOU HAVE TO KNOW
WHEN TO CHANGE COURSE.
[SNYDER]
EVEN AS WE SPEND
ALL OF OUR TIME TALKING
ABOUT WHAT HUMANS ARE CAPABLE
OF DOING IN A NEGATIVE SENSE,
WE DON'T KNOW THE LIMITS
OF WHAT WE'RE CAPABLE OF DOING
IN A POSITIVE SENSE.
WE HAVEN'T FOUND THAT EITHER.
THE GENERAL DRIF IS IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.
WE HAVE AN AWFUL LOT OF THINGS
THAT WE SHOULD BE AFRAID OF.
THE WINDOW
OF ACTION IS CLOSING.
BUT THERE WOULDN'T BE ANY POIN TALKING ABOUT ALL OF THIS
IF WE DIDN'T HAVE
THE KNOWLEDGE WHICH WE DO,
IF WE DIDN'T HAVE
THE TOOLS WHICH WE DO,
AND IF WE DIDN'T HAVE
UNPREDICTABLE POTENTIAL,
WHICH WE ALSO DO.
[PARENTI]
WHAT PEOPLE NEED
MORE THAN A FRIGH IS SOME CREDIBLE DESCRIPTION
OF A WAY OUT OF THE PROBLEM.
[BREEN]
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
FUNDAMENTALLY
IS ABOUT THE ABILITY
TO MEET OUR ENERGY NEEDS
FROM WITHIN OUR OWN BORDERS
INDEFINITELY.
THERE'S NO MORE
AMERICAN CONCEPT THAN THAT,
AND THAT MEANS TAKING CONTROL
OF OUR ENERGY FUTURE
AND INVESTING IN ALTERNATIVES
TO OUR CURRENT SYSTEM.
[GOODMAN]
THE FLIP SIDE
OF THE CLIMATE THREA IS THE ENERGY
AND RESILIENCE OPPORTUNITY.
THE MORE DIVERSIFIED WE ARE
IN OUR ENERGY SOURCES,
FROM A WHOLE ARRAY
OF RENEWABLES
TO INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES,
THE SOUNDER AND STRONGER
AND MORE SECURE WE WILL BE.
[BREEN]
ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE SEEN
IS A WHOLE GENERATION
OF VETERANS
WHO HAVE COME BACK
FROM THE CONFLICTS
IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN
WITH A VERY DEEP, PERSONAL
UNDERSTANDING OF THIS CHALLENGE.
WE'VE SEEN RETURNING VETERANS
GO INTO THE RENEWABLE
ENERGY INDUSTRY,
INSTALLING SOLAR PANELS
AND STARTING COMPANIES.
THEY SEE NOT ONLY
THE TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE,
BUT THEY ALSO SEE A MISSION.
THEY SEE A CONTINUATION
OF PUBLIC SERVICE
THAT DROVE THEM
TO RAISE THEIR HAND
AND VOLUNTEER TO PUT ON
THE UNIFORM IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WE DID NOT END THE STONE AGE
BECAUSE WE RAN OUT OF STONES.
WE FOUND SOMETHING BETTER.
WINSTON CHURCHILL
IS ALLEGED TO HAVE SAID
THAT AMERICANS CAN ALWAYS BE
COUNTED ON TO DO THE RIGHT THING
AFTER EXHAUSTING
EVERY OTHER POSSIBILITY.
WE'RE GETTING TOWARDS
THE END OF EXHAUSTING
ALL THOSE OTHER POSSIBILITIES.
[PARENTI]
THE RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
INVOLVES A TYPE
OF INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
WE NEED TO LEAVE BEHIND
THE TECHNOLOGIES
BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS
AND SHIFT TOWARDS
A CLEAN-TECH RENAISSANCE.
THE PATH FORWARD
ALREADY EXISTS.
[FUERTH]
IF YOU LOOK AT THE RATE AT WHICH
THE TECHNOLOGY IS IMPROVING,
THIS ACTUALLY
IS AN ECONOMIC BOON.
DOING WHA WE SHOULD PROACTIVELY
TO DEAL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
BECOMES PAR OF THE SOLUTION SE TO WHAT WE SHOULD
BE DOING PROACTIVELY
TO DEAL WITH THE ECONOMIC
STRENGTH OF THE COUNTRY.
[BREEN]
THESE ARE THE PLAYS
THAT ARE GONNA DEFINE
THE 21st CENTURY EITHER WAY.
WE'LL IMPROVE OUR SECURITY
AND WE'LL IMPROVE
OUR WAY OF LIFE.
WE'LL IMPROVE OUR ECONOMY.
WE MAY ALSO HEAD OFF ONE
OF THE LARGEST RISKS WE FACE.
[PARENTI]
THE MOST IMPORTANT THING
IS FOR PEOPLE TO SEE
HOW ACTUALLY TANGIBLE AND, LIKE,
WITHIN POSSIBLE GRASP
THIS CHANGE IS.
[FUERTH]
I DON'T THINK THAT HUMANITY
IS GUARANTEED A PASS
OUT OF THE PROBLEMS THA IT IS CREATING FOR ITSELF.
IF WE FAIL, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE CAN NEVER AGAIN,
AT ANY PRICE,
OBTAIN THE KIND OF FUTURE
THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SECURE
FOR OURSELVES IF WE SUCCEED.
THE TECHNOLOGICAL MEANS
ARE IN HAND.
THE WEALTH EXISTS.
THE QUESTION ALWAYS IS
IS WHETHER OR NO THE WISDOM EXISTS.
IN ANY STRATEGIC SYSTEM,
TIME IS THE MOS PRECIOUS RESOURCE.
IT'S THE ONE THING
THAT CANNOT BE REPLENISHED.