This England (2022) s01e02 Episode Script

1
(pensive music playing)
(Dominic) Africa.
The problem is not
that we were once in charge,
but but that we're not
in charge anymore is the problem.
(Dominic) George Bush.
A cross-eyed Texan warmonger,
unelected, inarticulate,
who epitomises the arrogance
of American foreign policy.
(Dominic) Donald Trump.
The only reason I would not visit
some part of New York
is the very real risk
of meeting Donald Trump.
(Dominic) Islam.
It's the most viciously sectarian
of all the religions
in its heartlessness towards
the unbelievers.
Islam's the problem.
(Dominic) Vladimir Putin.
Well, despite looking
like Dobby, The House Elf,
he is a ruthless
and manipulative tyrant.
-(Dominic) Women.
-Hot totty.
-(Dominic) Gay men.
-Tank-topped bumboys.
Bumboy.
(mumbles, sighs)
(sighs)
-(birds chirping)
-(crows cawing)
How many have you got?
Five hundred or so.
Oh, and how many did, er, Harry
and Meghan have for Archie?
(Carrie chuckles) Good boy.
You know, that's no good for him.
It's too salty.
(Carrie) It didn't stop you
from having three rashers.
Well, I've got to keep up
my strength.
-Can you take Dilyn out?
-It's raining.
-He needs a wee.
-(Dilyn barks)
(Boris) Oh, God. Would you
You wouldn't mind, would you?
-Of course, Prime Minister.
-Thank you, thank you.
You shall be mentioned
in dispatches.
-(brooding music playing)
-(Dilyn barks)
(rain pattering)
(Neil) We estimate a fatality rate
of 0.9 percent,
with up to 80 percent
of the population
getting the virus.
Five-hundred-thousand deaths
if we do nothing.
It's a worst-case scenario, Neil.
It is what would happen
if we do nothing.
(Edmunds) The data we're getting
out of Italy now
tells us there are almost
1,000 people in Italy
under house quarantine,
about 1,000 in hospital.
But here's the thing.
Almost 200 in intensive care.
That's almost ten percent
of all the positive cases.
How far behind Italy
do you think we are?
Four, five weeks, more,
if we put measures in place to slow
down the spread of the virus.
(sirens wailing)
-(indistinct chatter)
-(pensive music playing)
Make sure it's covering your nose
and your mouth, like this.
Can you hear me?
-(Andrea) No.
-(Manny) Good.
(crowd laughs)
-It means it's working.
-(Andrea laughs)
(NHS worker)
(Andrea)
(crowd laughs)
The answer for that, Andrea,
is don't use your phone.
(crowd laughs, cheers)
I think you should look at this.
(Boris) Never read the paper.
They're all a lot of stuff
and nonsense,
It's just froth and foam,
and I say that as a journalist.
Rugby league, was it?
(patient) Yeah, yeah.
Lightfoot's from down here, so
-Ah.
-(patient) Yeah.
(indistinct chatter)
(Faith) Get a move on!
Hey!
(kids speaking indistinctly)
-(Faith) Oh, hi.
-Hi.
Shouldn't you guys be at school?
Right, come on, let's go.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, we need to hurry.
(Steve) What time is it?
(Faith) Come on,
we need to do our homework
the night before, please.
Okay. Daddy hug.
Come on, boys, be good.
(kisses) Okay,
you're gonna be good.
-Have fun. Bye.
-(kid) Hey.
(traffic rumbling)
(indistinct chatter)
(Lee) Morning, Gabriel.
Er, where are you?
Er, I'm in beautiful Birmingham.
Okay, and what are the, er
what are the focus groups
telling us?
People right now are not
that focused on the virus.
They're still pretty pissed off
about the floods.
Whatever the exact shape
of the epidemic,
we do know that some people
are gonna die
and there will be an impact
on the economy.
Exactly. There's
there's gonna be bad news,
but the question is,
how do we handle it?
The one big takeaway is people
don't trust politicians,
they don't trust the media,
they do trust scientists.
I thought we hated experts.
People trust scientists.
-(secretary) Congratulations.
-Thank you. (chuckles)
(security officer) Congratulations,
Prime Minister.
Oh, thank you,
sweet of you to notice.
Can we grab you? It's just a bit
of a tight schedule today.
-Yeah, all right. You okay?
-Yes, dear.
Congratulations, Prime Minister.
Wonderful news.
Oh, God, this is getting
a bit embarrassing.
-Well done, boss.
-(Boris) Well, thank you very much.
Although you're looking
a bit gloomy today.
So what is in the diary?
The SPI-B and SPI-M are meeting
ahead of today's COBRA meeting,
which you're going to chair.
They'll present the latest numbers
and advice.
Good.
We're going to record a video,
which we'll put out tonight,
show that we're still
on top of things.
Good, good.
You're working on the speech?
-Er. It'll just be an interview.
-Right.
Then we're going to go
to a hospital,
which we'll brief out later,
visit the front line,
boost the morale of the troops.
"Once more unto the breach,
dear friends."
-Exactly.
-Yeah, although thinking about it,
probably not a good reference.
"Once more unto the breach,
dear friends, once more."
"Or close the wall up
with our English dead."
Yeah, The Mirror would love that.
We need to get you on, though.
We need to get ahead of the curve.
We need to give them your message.
Right. Er
So, what is the message?
Er, that we're in charge.
(dramatic music playing)
(Steve coughs)
(breathes heavily, coughs)
(Amanda) The teams
at Imperial and LSHTM
have been looking
at the first numbers from Italy.
Right.
And it's looking like
nine percent of infected patients
are needing ICU care.
-Yeah.
-(Amanda) We start from a situation
where we only have 6.6 ICU beds
per 100,000 population.
Italy has double that number,
Germany more than four times
that number.
We need to start thinking
about how to create more beds,
more ICU capacity,
more ventilators,
or we're going to have
doctors playing God,
having to decide who goes
on a ventilator, who doesn't.
Yeah, cannot let that happen.
Okay, what can we do
to increase capacity?
The Chinese built
temporary hospitals.
I think we should consider it.
(Amanda) Maybe the military
can help.
They build field hospitals.
(siren wailing)
-Hello. Hello.
-(Rob) Hello, how are you?
-(Carrie) Oh, you too.
-It's been a while.
I know, I've been hiding away,
but I'm allowed out now,
so here I am.
(Rob) And here you are,
or something like this. How is it?
I'm loving it.
-(Rob) Good.
-I'm loving it.
Good.
Well, you're looking very well.
(Carrie) Oh, that's very kind.
(Prof. Richard) The government
should advise against greetings,
such as shaking hands and hugging,
given existing evidence
of the importance of hand hygiene.
-(Boris) Morning, boys.
-(indistinct chatter)
So, the reproduction rate, R0,
is the number of people
each person infects, on average.
We estimate that number to be
between two and three in Wuhan
before they locked the city down.
If the same thing happens here,
it would correspond to 80 percent
of people in the UK
getting the virus.
If you look at the next chart
you see a curve based
on the time it takes
for the number
of infections to double.
We believe that time in Wuhan
is between four and six days.
Those numbers may be
different in the UK.
We believe that there is sustained
transmission of COVID-19
in the UK at present.
We believe that the peak
of case numbers
should be expected three
to five months
after the start
of widespread transmission,
if there's no intervention
to reduce contact.
We believe the lockdown in Wuhan
has been effective
in reducing the epidemic.
Our best estimate
of the infection fatality rate
is in the range
of 0.5 percent to one percent,
ranging from 0.01 percent
in the under-20s
to eight percent in the over-80s.
Yeah, I think I got that.
What is that in terms
of sheer numbers?
One percent of 80 percent
of the UK population is 500,000.
-Half a million dead?
-Yes.
That is a worst-case scenario,
right?
Yes. We're not expecting
that to happen.
(Patrick) Those numbers are
if we do nothing
to mitigate the spread
of the virus.
China only had a couple
of thousand deaths, or
or so they say, I mean,
but there's a billion of them.
And they imposed a very draconian
lockdown very quickly.
Yeah, one advantage
of not having democracy.
(Whitty) A lockdown
like the Chinese one
stores up problems for later.
You can't stop a virus.
Once you release the lockdown,
the virus will spread again,
until, of course,
you either have a vaccine
or enough people have had it
that you get herd immunity.
-So, what are we going to do?
-(Whitty) We need to slow down
the infection rate,
to flatten the curve,
to give us time to prepare
and to spread out
the demand for ICU.
SPI-B has recommended
a really clear policy
of no shaking hands and really
good hand-washing hygiene.
The sort of thing
my nanny used to tell me.
(Whitty) We need to isolate people
who have symptoms,
and looking ahead,
we do need to think
-about school closures.
-Oh, really?
We believe the incubation period
is between one and 11 days,
twice as long as with flu,
so we don't believe screening
people entering the country
would be effective.
-Right.
-I think
I think it's vital that we, er,
communicate this as clearly
-and accurately as possible.
-Exactly.
I would suggest that we have
formal press conference tomorrow
with you and Chris
alongside the PM.
I think it's very important
that we show that any measures
that are taken are in response
to independent
expert scientific advice.
(Sami) That's a really good idea.
So, guys, if the patient
is symptomatic,
we use this entrance
and go directly through there
to radiology and the COVID ward.
If you just follow me
around the corner.
And if they have no symptoms,
they use this entrance
and go through here
to the green wards.
However, if we're not sure,
then we put them here
in the purple room.
There's one thing
about the numbers.
What?
The doubling time.
Four to six days.
There was an earlier estimate
of three to four.
That's a big difference.
Look at the data.
Check it all again.
Sure.
All right. Well, yeah, I suppose.
Hi, Dom. Hi, Cleo.
Okay, shall we
Great, thank you. Good.
Okay, let's do this, shall we?
Prime Minister, could you give us
an update, please?
Er, well, I've just chaired
a COBRA meeting on coronavirus,
and I think it is a, er,
a problem that is likely
to become more significant
for this country in the next
What, er, what are we going to say,
months or what?
If you make it days,
then they understand
it's not forever, I think.
(Boris) Okay, all right.
Listen, I'll do it again.
Yes, yes, yes!
Team Boris, we can do this!
Come on! Okay, here we go.
But the single best thing
we can all do,
er, to protect ourselves is to wash
our hands two times,
happy birthday.
Other than that, though,
I wish to stress that people,
as far as possible,
should go about business as usual.
-(Gazza) The car's ready.
-(Boris) Right.
-(traffic rumbling)
-(sirens wailing)
(Horby) As you can see,
we have been extremely busy
with a lot of cases,
but we are coping admirably.
(Boris) Hello, good to see you.
Listen, how are you feeling?
-Not good.
-You are in the best place.
We have got the best doctors
in the world.
The advice is not to shake hands,
just so you know.
That would be terrible.
It would be like Churchill hiding
in a bunker.
Very good to see you.
Good to see you.
Well done, young man.
Nice to see you.
-(Faith) It's on the right.
-(paramedic 1) Thank you.
(pensive music playing)
(coughs)
(paramedic 1)
You're doing ever so well.
(paramedic 2)
Sorry about what we're wearing.
We've just got to do it
at the moment, okay?
(breathes heavily)
(paramedic 1) It's just gonna go up
your nose, put it round your ears.
(clears throat)
(paramedic 1) Thank you.
Come down, love.
(grunts, breathes heavily)
-(paramedic 1) Take your time.
-(Steve grunts, coughs)
-(paramedic 1) Yeah?
-(Steve) Yeah.
Don't worry, okay?
It's going to be okay.
(paramedic 1) We'll take good care
of Dad, all right?
Take care. Hmm?
We'll come and visit
as soon as we can.
(paramedic 1)
(ambulance siren blaring)
(indistinct chatter)
(Patrick) I'm actually
a little nervous.
(Whitty) Glad you said it, Patrick.
(Boris) Hello, boys.
Good to see you.
Er. These things can be
a little bit awkward,
so let's hope the old press pack
aren't in a feeding frenzy today.
If anyone gets a third degree,
it'll be me.
I shall be your human shield,
as it were.
Today, we have published
the coronavirus action plan.
Er, the plan has four strands,
contain, delay,
research, and mitigate.
Finally, crucially, er,
we must not forget
what we can all do
to fight this virus,
which is to wash our hands,
you knew I was going to say this,
with soap and water.
Will you be shaking hands,
Prime Minister?
No, I I was shaking hands
at a hospital the other night
where I met
a few coronavirus patients.
Er, and I shook hands
with everybody.
I You'll be pleased to know.
-(Julie) You all right, John?
-(John) Yeah.
So we start off, we wet our hands.
So everybody wet your hands.
Keep our hands a good rub together
so we get lots of soap,
lots of lather on there.
There we go. That's it, Laura.
Very good.
We have to do it as if we were
singing "Happy Birthday" twice.
You've got a good voice,
haven't you, Brian?
-I've heard.
-Yeah.
(Julie) Yeah, I've heard you
singing before.
And then a nice, clean cloth.
Okay. Yeah, I'll put you through.
Right.
(pensive music playing)
Julie, it's the hospital
on the phone.
(admin) Hi, Julie,
just checking in.
We've got to clear some space
ahead of coronavirus,
and we're trying to move out
any patients without
any clinical needs.
So we were wondering if the Grange
had any space for us.
Er Yeah, we have one.
We've just lost a resident.
(indistinct chatter)
Come and say hello
to Philip and Holly.
-Prime Minister.
-(Boris) Yeah. Good to see you.
-Good to see you. Have a seat.
-Nice to see you, Holly.
-MUSIC: "This Morning Theme"
-(indistinct chatter)
Welcome back. Now, overnight,
the government has faced
fresh accusations
of withholding information.
Are you withholding information?
Er. No, not at all.
Let me clear that up immediately.
It's very important, you know,
that we're transparent.
It's very important that people
understand that we're transparent.
You did walk straight in here,
and I kept my hands by my side,
just to see what would happen.
Erm, and you came over
and you shook my hand.
Well, I did. I did I did.
Ah, fuck's sake!
People make their own,
you know, decisions but I
-I think washing them
-Is the key.
-is the single most effective
-Fuck's sake!
Someone please tell
Philip Schofield
that Boris is never going
to grace his studio again.
(sirens wailing)
(reporter) More than 3,000 cases
have been confirmed here,
with the number of deaths jumping
by 28 in the past day alone.
Now, all primary schools, colleges,
and universities
will shut their doors.
Italy's sports minister
signalled matches
could be held without fans coming
to watch.
(indistinct chatter)
(Andrea)
Er. Check your observations, okay?
(patient) Okay.
-(NHS worker 1) Michael?
-(Michael) Er. Yes?
(NHS worker 2) Did you level out
that young patient, Luke?
(Michael) Yes, yes.
I don't think treating
COVID patients
inside wards is going to work.
It's too busy already.
It's only going to get worse.
We need red zones
and we need green zones.
To sum up, we are still
in the contain phase.
Modelling supports implementation
within one to two weeks
of individual home isolation,
whole family isolation,
in order to delay
the spread of COVID-19
and reduce mortality rates.
(reporter)
The first UK death of a patient
with coronavirus
at a hospital in Reading.
The victim was elderly
and already suffering
from pre-existing conditions.
Can you have a look at this,
please?
(Boris) What is it?
(Carrie) It's the guest list
for the baby shower.
Really?
Yes, really. We're having a baby.
It's the most important thing
you can do in your life.
Yeah, yeah.
It's just that there's quite a lot
of other things going on.
I know, but unfortunately,
I cannot postpone having a baby.
(Boris) I understand.
-What do you think of the list?
-Er. It's fine. Fine, fine, fine.
Yeah.
Should I invite your children?
I don't know. I don't know.
You decide. You decide.
(reporter)
How many more deaths?
Today, a patient in Milton Keynes
became the second fatality.
We're struggling.
Our main suppliers have been
disrupted by the Chinese lockdown
and there's been a surge
in demand worldwide.
What we can't have is hospitals
running out of protection.
Agreed. We need
to change the guidelines now
to try and avoid shortages later.
(siren wailing)
This morning we had the new advice
from Public Health England
vis-à-vis PPE.
So if you're on a COVID ward
and you're not going within
a metre of the patient,
you don't need the full gown
and filter-style mask,
just basic apron, mask and goggles.
Do they know it's safe
outside a metre?
That's the recommendation.
(chuckles) That does seem
a bit strange on the surface.
-Why not just wear full gown?
-Maybe they don't have enough.
(imam praying)
(reporter)
Fear of infection has depleted
even the most devoted crowds,
even here in the Grand Mosque.
Fear of this virus has made us,
its hosts,
put up borders and barriers
while the unwelcome guest
is busy crossing them
with blind disregard for ideology,
creed or flag.
(Richard) So far, evidence suggests
that the colossal public health
efforts of the Chinese government
have saved thousands of lives.
As the window
for global containment closes,
health ministers are scrambling
to implement appropriate measures
to delay the spread of the virus.
But their actions have
been slow and insufficient.
Oh, here they all are.
Very good. Excellent. Good.
So, may I introduce you to, er,
the captain of the team
(Boris) Ah, the captain.
There's the boss. Nice to see you.
This is Vicky,
our open-side flanker.
-Oh, the flanker. Okay.
-(crowd giggles)
Nice to meet you. I'm number two.
Number two in the front row.
Of course.
-(Carrie chuckles) Yeah, me too.
-Grace.
Oh, nice ring.
Oh, thank you.
It's my engagement ring.
-(Grace) I guessed.
-(laughs)
So, which comes first,
the wedding or the baby?
Er, baby. (laughs) I suppose.
(crowd cheering)
(commentator) Let's go.
The inside ball to Watson. Watson!
(crowd cheering)
(indistinct chatter)
(NHS worker) Okay, Vicky,
we're going to give you
some medication
to help you sleep, okay?
And then we're going
to pop a tube down your throat
to help you breathe, all right?
(reporter)
Around the world, there are now
more than 100,000 cases
of coronavirus.
First, we've got Lucy Allen,
who's the MP for Telford.
-Right.
-(Lee) And we've got Philip Dunn,
-who is the MP for Ludlow.
-Okay.
(Lee) And this should be
a really good area for us.
(reporters clamouring)
(Boris) Well, I mean, this looks
like some last dregs of this,
but you probably had it
pretty bad, did you?
(butcher) Well,
it's flooded through the back door,
-through the front.
-I've mainly pushed your water out.
I'm gonna love you and leave you,
my friends.
(butcher) Thank you very much.
-(cameras clicking)
-(indistinct chatter)
Traitor! Don't laugh,
you're a traitor, Boris!
(reporter 1)
People in Bewdley
weren't letting
the Prime Minister forget
that he didn't come
when their town looked like this.
(reporter 2)
North Manchester General Hospital
announcing in the last hour
that a man who'd recently travelled
from Italy had died
on its specialist
infectious disease unit.
(reporter 3)
President Macron today
banned gatherings of more
than 1,000 in France.
-(traffic rumbling)
-(sirens wailing)
-(security officer) Good morning.
-(man 1) Morning.
-(man 2) Good morning.
-(security officer) Morning.
(Dominic) Gabriel, we need to know
what the public think
about the lockdown over in Italy.
We also need to know
what they think
about the idea of it happening
here in Britain.
Yeah, sure. We've got groups
in, er, Crawley, Bradford,
Nuneaton and Telford.
You're living the life.
(Gabriel) I'm not doing
all of them myself.
What is the risk to a foetus?
Do you know?
Not really in my wheelhouse,
that one.
Are you seeing Chris Whitty?
-Yeah.
-Can you ask him?
Yeah.
Because I'm just I'm thinking
There are an awful lot of people
coming in and out of this building.
Maybe I would be safer
in the Camberwell house.
-Or Chequers?
-God, no. I don't want to go there.
Oh, God, sorry.
Look, I've got to go.
It's a, er
(kisses) dirty job,
but someone's got to do it,
so I shall, er, see you later.
-All right.
-(Dilyn barks)
Come on, Dilyn.
(reporter)
They're calling it Black Monday.
Traders braced for the worst,
and within seconds it came.
-(pensive music playing)
-(indistinct chatter)
Would you, er
Would you mind doing the honours
-Would you mind doing the honours?
-No problem, Prime Minister.
Morning, all. Hello, hello, hello.
Sorry if I'm late, everyone.
Sorry, that's the downside
of working from home.
You can't be late 'cause there's
no catching the Victoria line,
no "my bike got a puncture".
Oh, hello, hello.
Mark, you're here.
Excellent.
Erm. Although
I'm I'm guessing
that possibly you
you do not have good news.
(Lee) FTSE's down eight percent
in the last hour.
-Shit.
-That's as bad as 2008.
-That's about 400 billion lost.
-Yikes.
Well, given this current crisis
and with the budget coming so soon,
it feels like we should be
coordinating action
between the key departments
of Treasury, Health, Home Office,
possibly Foreign Office,
all coordinated
-through the Cabinet Office.
-Through you?
Yes, with the oversight
of Michael Gove, of course.
(Lee) We need to get
onto the front foot.
The Italian lockdown
is all over the news
and it feels like
we're getting left behind.
Okay, what do you think, Dom?
Italy's in chaos,
but then it's Italy.
I don't think people here
want a lockdown.
And if we lock down,
then the economy
is going to crash.
We we can't have that.
The average age of the people dying
in Italy is over 80.
-Eighty.
-(Dominic) Over 80.
We've had ten years of austerity,
where pensioners have been
protected with a triple lock,
whilst wages have been frozen,
benefits frozen,
tuition fees trebled.
We have to think about
intergenerational justice.
We have to reset the balance
between the young and the old.
Right, okay, okay.
So, are you talking to Rishi?
Yeah, we're going
through the numbers,
but it's going to have to be
something huge to make any impact.
(huffs)
(indistinct chatter)
(NHS worker 1)
We just need to put
this bed down now, okay?
(NHS worker 2) It's going to be
a bit uncomfortable.
Let's just take this pillow out.
(NHS worker 2)
There we go. Well done.
(NHS worker 1)
Flipping this mask over.
(Amir) Well done, Jonny.
(NHS worker 2)
Saturating at 84 percent.
(Amir) Okay.
(NHS worker 2) Let's inflate.
Okay, we're saturating, okay?
-Yeah, 85 percent.
-(Amir) Of aspiration.
(NHS worker 2)
Okay, ready with trichoid.
Trichoid's on. Sats okay.
(Amir) Okay. Yep.
-Pass the tube.
-(NHS worker 2) Ready for tube?
Oxygen level's okay.
-(Amir) Okay, good.
-(NHS worker 2) Yeah.
(Amir) Grade one intubation.
(NHS worker 2) Cuff inflated.
-(Amir) Everybody happy?
-(NHS worker 2) Yeah, yeah.
(Amir) It's hot in this PPE.
We need to do whatever we can
to slow this epidemic down
or we are going to be overwhelmed.
Top of the list, mass gatherings.
Italy and France have banned them.
Given the choppy economic waters
that we find ourselves in,
the rhetoric is steady as we can,
you know,
we don't want to shoot ourselves
in the foot by
by killing off people's
livelihoods.
So, SAGE is still of the belief
that banning mass gatherings
like Cheltenham would have
little long-term benefit?
I I
And I think that, frankly,
it smells of panic if we are to,
you know,
ban Cheltenham
the day before we start.
-It's not a good look, is it?
-I agree.
(Colette) Steve,
we've got your results back.
We think we need to put you
on a ventilator. Is that okay?
-(Steve) Mm.
-(Colette) All right.
What we'll do,
we'll give you some drugs
and pop a tube down your throat
and take this mask off, all right?
You'll be asleep.
(phone ringing)
Hello?
(Colette) Hi, it's Colette,
Steve's nurse.
He just wants to have
a word with you, okay?
I'll pop him on.
-Here, Steve.
-(Faith) Hi.
(Steve)
(Faith) How you feeling?
(Steve)
Yeah. You sound terrible.
(Steve)
(Faith) I know.
They explained everything to me.
Take care.
The kids are here.
Say hello to your dad.
Hello, Dad.
Hello, Dad.
(Steve) Hey. How how are you?
Okay?
-Yeah.
-(Steve) How's school?
Boring.
(Steve coughs) I love you.
Love you, Dad.
(Steve) Bye.
(NHS worker) Deep breath.
We're almost there.
We're almost there.
(reporter 1)
A fourth person in the UK has died
after testing positive
for coronavirus.
The patient, who was being treated
at the Royal Wolverhampton Hospital
was in their seventies and had
underlying health conditions.
(reporter 2)
Italy has now imposed
a national lockdown to contain
the spread of COVID-19.
Wow, 60 million
in lockdown in Italy.
Yeah, we'd better stock up
on pasta
before all the other idiots
start panic buying.
(Carrie) Do you think
they're actually gonna stay home?
(Boris) Well, I doubt it.
Perhaps while they've got them
locked down,
they'll make them pay their taxes.
(pensive music playing)
(horse neighs)
Just a little
Get rid of the shine.
Don't worry.
I'm going to make you look lovely.
There's only a certain number
of people you can infect,
so one person
in a 70,000-seater stadium
is not going to infect
the whole stadium.
They will infect potentially
a few people
they have very close contact with.
That's true in any setting,
in the home,
in a church, in a restaurant.
Saw you on the telly, Patrick.
Very good.
Thank you.
Well, comms is important.
Sir Patrick, Marc Warner,
I run faculty.
Er. We're working on data for NHS.
Dom just asked me to sit in.
-Brother?
-Yes.
(Whitty) Okay, everybody.
Shall we get started?
Data is firming up that we're about
four to five weeks behind Italy,
and that will increase to six
to eight weeks
once we apply
the mitigation procedures.
-All right? Morning, Jamie.
-Morning, Chris.
(staff member)
We've just heard from Nadine.
She's not going to make it.
She's sick.
-Okay. With what?
-She tested for Covid.
(Matt) Oh, shit.
Well, that probably means
we're all gonna get it, doesn't it?
Okay, well, let's start
with testing.
Where are we at?
We currently have capacity
for 1,500 tests per day.
We've been talking with NHS labs.
Our plan is to ramp up
to 10,000 tests per day.
Okay, and how many tests
have been done so far?
As of today, we've carried out
26,261 tests,
with 373 being positive.
Okay, and who exactly is getting
the tests, besides Nadine?
I mean, can doctors get them?
It is vital we protect
our health workers.
All our experiences
of epidemics like Ebola
show that if doctors start dying,
the public lose trust
in the system.
-The press would go crazy.
-(advisor) Yeah.
(reporter 1) Today,
Italians are adjusting
to restrictions on movement
and bans on public gatherings.
(reporter 2) Hospital staff
are struggling to cope
with the sheer number
of people infected.
And now people across
the entire nation have been told
they can only go out for work,
family, and health emergencies.
(reporter 3) The Bank
of England has announced
an emergency interest rate cut
to shore up the economy
during the coronavirus outbreak.
So, erm, let's start
with the situation in Italy.
If those hospitals
were in this country,
-how would that make you feel?
-I'd be really scared.
I'd be really worried
about my family or friends.
And if that was happening
in your local hospital,
those pictures were
from your local hospital,
how would you feel
about the government?
Very angry.
We've not been in this situation,
certainly not in my lifetime.
Disappointed.
You know, we should know better.
If the government said there were
10,000 people going to die,
would that justify a lockdown?
One life is too many.
-(attendee) It's very hard to say.
-Would it destroy the economy?
It just seems like you're limiting
my freedom.
You'd get rioting on the street.
The kids would go berserk.
The teenagers,
you couldn't do that to them.
(reporter) A drive-through
coronavirus test site
has been opened in Wolverhampton.
I know we haven't been asked
to model a lockdown,
but given the experience of China
and Italy,
it just seemed crazy not to.
We're doing the same.
I'll send the papers over.
Er, but basically,
if we implement the current plan,
we're talking about deaths
in the hundreds of thousands.
If we implement a lockdown,
something like Italy,
we could reduce
the number of deaths
to somewhere around 30,000.
(indistinct chatter)
(Michelle) Blood pressure's
dropping over here.
Can I have some help over here,
please?
(NHS worker)
You all right, Michelle?
(Michelle) Er, blood pressure's
dropping a little bit.
(NHS worker) Do you want
to give her bolus
and then increase that Nora to 8.
(Michelle) T, would you be
able to bleep the doctor for me?
(T) Er, yes, honey.
(NHS worker) Er, give him
a bit of suction for us, Michelle.
(Michelle) Suctioning.
(NHS worker)
Just listen to his chest now.
Looks like PE.
Let's start chest compressions.
Will you get the crash trolley
as soon as possible, please?
(Michelle) Would you like to ring
his family for me please?
(NHS worker) Okay.
(tense music playing)
-(Faith) Hello?
-(NHS worker) Hello, Faith.
I'm so sorry,
but your husband, Steve
his organs have stopped working.
I should take that from you!
(NHS worker)
There's nothing more we can do.
I'm so sorry I have to say this
over the phone.
(stammers) Thank you.
(kid) Was that the hospital?
Yeah.
Daddy's struggling.
He really wants to come back.
(Tedros) And we're deeply concerned
by the alarming
levels of inaction.
COVID-19 can be characterised
as a pandemic.
(Rishi)
I know how worried people are.
Worried about their health,
the health of their loved ones,
their jobs,
their income, their businesses,
their financial security.
(indistinct chatter)
I will do whatever it takes
to support the economy.
-(sirens wailing)
-(crowd cheering, chanting)
(commentator) There's
Oxlade-Chamberlain
on the right-hand side.
Oxlade-Chamberlain cross!
-It's headed down by Wijnaldum!
-(crowd cheering)
(commentator) Liverpool score!
And with half-time approaching
it's one-nil on the night.
-One what an aggregate.
-(crowd cheering)
(commentator) Firmino's header
hits the post, comes back. It's in!
(crowd cheering)
(commentator)
Firmino scores at Anfield.
And now the chance Oh, it's in!
What a finish from Llorente
from just outside the box.
And with this scoreline,
the Holders are going out here
in Anfield.
Morata to finish it.
Left foot into the net.
And Diego Simeone's team
are knocking out last season's
Champions League winners.
(reporter) A health worker
has died in hospital
having been diagnosed
with coronavirus.
(Faith) Then he lay down close by.
and whispered with a smile,
"I love you right up
to the moon and back."
Where's Daddy?
He loves you, darling.
He loves you.
And he'll always be watching you
and be with you,
just like when he was here.
And when you look up at the stars
and see one shining,
that's where Daddy is.
And he'll always be loving you
and watching you
just like when he was here.
(pensive music playing)
(reporter)
The world's financial markets
have taken fright
at the possible economic impact
of coronavirus, with sharp falls
as the market opens.
-(Lee) Rishi.
-Morning, Lee.
(Boris) "If it be now,
tis not to come."
"If it be not to come,
it will be now."
"If it be not now
yet it will come."
"The readiness is all."
(Dominic)
The markets are crashing again.
(Boris) I thought everybody loved
the budget.
-They did.
-For about an hour.
Oh, God, well,
that was the shortest honeymoon
in history, wasn't it?
They're all spooked.
We're going to need
Rishi to go again,
to try and do something
to calm things down.
Right, you're going to do
the numbers with him, yeah?
Yeah, they're going
to need to be big.
I thought they were big
in the budget.
-(Dominic) They were.
-Yeah.
Good, I'm glad
to hear you say that.
They seem bloody big to me.
Testing.
We believe we should stop testing
in the community
and focus on only testing people
in hospitals with symptoms.
We've literally just announced
a big expansion in testing.
(Sharon) If we keep testing
in the community,
we won't have enough
testing capacity for hospitals.
Can't we use private labs to expand
our capacity further?
(Yvonne) We need to maintain
the quality and accuracy
of the testing by keeping it
within PAG and NHS.
We've had a lot of labs offering
to work with us.
We are pressing the ACDP to allow
containment level two labs
to be able to handle the samples.
That would help.
But the data will still all need
to feed back into our system.
It's going to look ugly.
Announcing it the day after,
shouting about more tests.
Where are we at with PPE?
We're struggling.
(sirens wailing)
(indistinct chatter)
(Tom) So, this is Comfort.
She's on 15 litres of oxygen.
(Katie) Okay.
(Tom) I'll leave her with you.
Thank you very much.
Hi, Comfort. My name's Katie.
I'm the nurse that's going to be
looking after you today.
I'll get you transferred over
onto a more comfortable bed, okay?
(NHS worker) Beth,
can you please key the doctors?
(Beth) Yeah, sure.
Could we please have someone come
and look at our patient
in bed space nine, bay two, please?
His oxygen requirement
is on its way up
and he's starting
to struggle slightly.
(Boris) Right, morning,
what have all you Cassandras
got to tell me today?
(Michael) Cassandra's prophecies
were true, remember.
It's just no-one believed her.
Yeah, I know.
I do just about remember
some of the stuff
they taught me at school.
Thank you.
So, SAGE met today.
We think there may be more cases
of COVID than we estimated.
Why?
There's a five to seven to day lag
in the data.
Jesus Christ.
John Edmunds did some modelling
for SPI-M
on the impact of a full lockdown.
It estimates that it could bring
the fatalities down
from the hundreds of thousands
to the tens of thousands.
Who asked them to model a lockdown?
It was their own initiative.
(Whitty) Imperial are running
their own numbers, too.
(Dominic) We decide the questions
that need to be answered.
It's not some fucking
free-for-all chat group.
And what's going on with testing?
It's a shambles.
I have been pushing PHE
to increase testing for weeks,
but they are a law unto themselves.
So we have hundreds of labs
in this country wanting to help,
but I cannot get PHE
to get involved.
-For fuck's sake.
-Don't blame me, Dom.
Blame Andrew effing Lansley.
Okay, okay, okay, calm down, boys.
So, Rishi, what are we going to do
to try to get the markets on side?
Well, that depends on whether
we impose more social distancing.
Oh, right. Neat, er, sidestep.
(Whitty) SAGE believes
household isolation
should be imposed
as soon as possible.
We cannot allow ourselves
to get into the same state
that Italy is in.
Well, that's your job, isn't it?
I'm in favour of a lockdown.
(Dominic) That is not on the agenda
of this meeting.
(reporter) The death toll
in Italy has passed 1,000,
an increase of 23 percent
in the past 24 hours.
Hospitals in Lombardy
are struggling to cope.
So you've seen those pictures
from Italy, the lockdown.
How would you feel
if the government proposed
something similar here?
They said, "stay at home all day,
work if you can."
"If you can't,
just stay at home anyway."
Well, would they be paying us?
(Gabriel) Well, let's say they did.
Yeah, I'd definitely be up
for that then.
(attendee) If there's a way
to protect the vulnerable people,
then of course.
And then the younger people
who maybe aren't at risk
can go ahead
and keep the economy running.
(indistinct chatter)
(monitor beeping)
(NHS worker 1)
Do you need anything doing?
(NHS worker 2) Oh, yes,
please, can you do the blood test?
(NHS worker 1)
I'm gonna take a blood sample.
(coughs)
It is now a global, er, pandemic
and the number of cases will rise.
You know, we've all got to be clear
that this is the worst
public health crisis
for a generation.
Many more families
are going to lose
loved ones before their time.
It's like they're on the bridge
of the Titanic.
They're finally seeing the iceberg
coming towards them ahead
is another ship, HMS Italy.
They're watching the iceberg
hit that ship,
and the ship slowly sinking,
and yet they still
won't change course.
They just blithely sail
on towards the iceberg.
There are 590 identified cases
in the UK
and 20 patients in ICU.
We estimate that that means
there are between 5,000
and 10,000 cases
in the UK right now.
But if it's 10,000 cases now,
and it's doubling
every three days
then in three weeks,
it's going to double seven times.
Two, four, eight, 16, 32, 64, 128,
128 times 10,000.
That's that's one and a quarter
million cases.
And three days after that,
it's 2.5 million.
And in another three days,
it'll be five million.
Why aren't they locking down now?
Well, you know why they're
not locking down now,
because they don't think
that it's a big number right now.
(Whitty) We will no longer
be doing contact tracing.
Indeed, many people will no longer
be tested at all
if they're showing mild symptoms.
Testing and contact tracing
are the two most important tools
in the epidemic.
Why on earth
are they stopping them?
Because they're idiots.
Did you know that Churchill
bashed out more than 40 books
as well as all his journalism?
(Carrie) Even more than you.
Yeah, and he won the Nobel Prize
for Literature.
(Carrie) Really? I wouldn't hold
your breath on that one.
No.
My sister won the Bad Sex Prize,
er, for her books, obviously.
(Carrie) Did you know
that Blair's memoirs
were the biggest-selling
political memoirs ever?
You're trying to set me some kind
of challenge.
You know I can't resist that kind
of thing.
(traffic rumbling)
(indistinct chatter)
(Tom) Hi. So, what's the latest?
(Katie) Oh, so,
Tom, I've done two rounds
of suction there
and his sats are 79.
He's not improving at all
after that second round.
I just can't seem to improve it.
(Tom) Thank you. This is Stephen,
let's have a look at you then.
(NHS worker)
It's not the sats' problem.
We're getting a good trace.
Tom, we're not getting enough tidal
volume.
(Tom) Let's try another suction.
(Katie)
Blood pressure of 87 over 43.
(Tom) All right, Stephen.
Right, no, we need to do a bronch.
(Katie) Okay.
(reporter)
Two more deaths in the UK,
bringing the total to ten.
(Sami) Monique, what's the problem?
Why has it not been scanned yet?
(NHS worker) Some of my team
are worried.
(Sami) We're all worried.
Is the same for my team as well.
(NHS worker) No. They're worried
about scanning patients
when they don't know
if they have COVID or not.
(Paul) We have 300 volunteers,
many who are skilled in PCR,
as well as lab space
containment facilities.
We are very keen to help
by using these resources
for diagnostic testing,
should that be useful.
(Patrick) Our aim
is to reduce the peak,
broaden the peak,
not suppress it completely.
Also, because the vast majority
of people get a mild illness,
to build up some kind
of herd immunity.
So more people are immune
to the disease
and we reduce transmission.
At the same time,
We protect those
who are most vulnerable to it.
(groans)
(Patrick) These are the key things
we need to do.
They seem to be picking up
on the wartime fighting spirit,
so we need to push that.
The Churchillian stuff.
Patrick's doing a tour
of the studios,
-taking one for the team.
-(Dominic) I like Patrick.
He's not afraid to stick his head
above the parapet.
(interviewer)
In terms of building up
a herd immunity within the UK,
what sort of percentage
of the population
needs to have contracted the virus?
About 60 percent is what you need
for herd immunity.
Sixty percent?
That's an awful lot of people dying
in this country.
Of course, we do face the prospect
of a number of people dying.
This is a nasty disease.
(Tom) What we're still missing
is clear guidance
on the criteria
of who gets a ventilator
and who doesn't get a ventilator.
We cannot have individual doctors
walking around making
subjective judgments on who to save
and who to switch off
without any clear advice from us.
I agree. I think we need to set up
an ethics committee
-to drop criteria.
-(staff member) Yeah.
Hi. Hi.
Hello. Hi. How are you doing?
Welcome to my world.
This is the Downing Street
equivalent of a gulag in Siberia.
Listen, erm,
could you do me a favour?
I want to go to the hospital
and I was just wondering
if you could come with me.
(Sarah) Our vaccine,
ChAdOx1-NCoV-19,
is going into the second phase
of animal trials today.
Great. Matthew?
We've been looking
at the virus in children,
looking at the data from abroad
and doing our own tests here.
Children don't seem
to get serious infections.
The issue is whether,
like with influenza,
they're carriers.
It's very early, but it doesn't
look like transmission is high.
So closing schools
won't have much impact?
Not from what we're seeing
at the moment.
About 60 percent is what you need
for herd immunity.
(focus group lead)
What do you make of that video?
What are your initial reactions?
Let's go to Annie.
Angry just at how cold
he's been, like.
Herd immunity.
That's going to kill thousands,
hundreds of thousands of people.
It's disgusting.
It's as if he's actually treating
us like a herd of cattle.
I I can't emphasise enough
how much people hate
the "herd" word.
Yeah, you would you would
not want to let Patrick Vallance
in with that group.
He wouldn't get out alive.
Yeah, well, let's make sure Boris
never uses that word then.
Is it the word itself
or the policy?
(Gabriel) Both, actually.
(Isaac) People don't exactly want
to hear the government's letting
hundreds of thousands of them die.
Exactly.
Gabriel, why don't you, er,
come back and base yourself
out of here from Monday
and let some of your guys take
the strain out there?
Yeah, sure.
I'd love to be able
to get home at night.
(Lee) Yeah, don't rely on that.
(chuckles)
(Rob) You all right?
-Everything's completely fine.
-(Rob) Okay, good.
(chuckles) I'm so sorry
I've wasted your time.
No, don't be silly. It's fine.
-(sighs)
-What are friends for?
Anyway, it's good role play.
You know, when I'm a dad.
Fancy a drink?
Sure.
-Cheers.
-Cheers.
(indistinct chatter)
Oh, gosh, it is so nice to be out
somewhere normal.
Mm-hmm. Still,
I'm looking forward to Chequers.
Yeah, I mean, it's a really weird
place, but it's fun.
Not like Number 10, my God.
It's just being above
the shop all the time.
It's so claustrophobic, though.
It isn't even possible to relax.
-So, is it a boy or a girl?
-Hmm?
Erm It's a boy.
-Yay! Boy!
-(shushes)
(Warner) Hey, can I just run
some numbers with you?
Sure.
Come this way.
(Warner) Mark and I
have been looking at the numbers
for Imperial and LSHTM.
They're calculating
the doubling time
from the R0
and the generation time.
The amount of time it takes
one person to infect another.
Imperial is using 2.4,
which I think is too low,
and a generation time
of six and a half days.
That gives you a doubling time
of over five days.
But the data, Italian data,
doesn't fit this.
Look at Italy.
They've gone from five deaths
by the 27th of February
to more than 1,000 deaths
by yesterday.
That's doubling every two days.
So, with a doubling of two days,
we are not four to five weeks
behind Italy.
More like two weeks.
(indistinct chatter)
(Amir) It will feel
a little strange at first,
a bit like sticking your head
out of the car window.
(Andrea) There.
It's important
to really have a snug fit.
(Amir) And focus on your breathing.
(reporter)
Italy has recorded 250 deaths
in the past 24 hours,
its highest one-day total.
The WHO says Europe is now
the epicentre of the pandemic.
(traffic rumbling)
-(Matt) Morning, Prime Minister.
-Hi. Morning.
Hey. How's it going?
-Morning, Prime Minister.
-Morning.
So, what have we got?
We thought we were four weeks
behind Italy.
-We now think we may be closer.
-Wha How much closer?
Ben Warner has been worried
about your doubling time.
I asked Faculty to take
a look at the data.
His brother's company?
Yeah.
Ben and Mark think it's more like
two to three days.
Mitigation will reduce the numbers.
It depends how people behave.
If we lock down now, with the sort
of numbers of cases that we have
we could contain this.
Look at the experience in China.
They have peaked already
and new infections
drastically down.
China, not comparable. Rishi?
(Rishi) Well,
we're modelling various types
of social distancing
and social isolation.
We could model lockdown as well.
Obviously, the impact
on the economy would be huge
-and the range is pretty huge too.
-(sighs)
We are modelling minimum
and maximum interventions.
It'd be really helpful to have
a clearer idea of what the plan is.
(Matt) We can all see
the shape of the curve.
The longer we delay lockdown,
the more cases we have,
the more likely the NHS
is to be overwhelmed.
I agree with Matt.
We need to prevent the NHS
being overwhelmed at all costs.
The impact of the current
mitigation proposals
will still leave us with hundreds
of thousands of deaths.
-According to the modelling
-(Dominic) If we have anywhere
near those numbers,
we'll be out of here.
Yeah, but it's not going
to be as bad as that, is it?
I mean, I can't see that happening.
And up to this point,
everybody around this table
has led me to believe
that that would not be the case.
Has that now changed?
-(Matt) Dom's changed his tune.
-(Jamie) Yeah, it's weird.
-It's amazing.
-I don't understand it.
(NHS worker)
Hello.
Thank you.
(Boris) So, who I can't
remember who's coming. Sorry.
-Lizzie.
-(Boris) Right.
-Vicky. Sam.
-(Boris) Right.
-Sam?
-Sam, she works at CCHQ.
I've got lots of people working
at CCHQ.
She's got long legs
and a short skirt.
Oh, yeah, Sam, I like her.
Isabel and Jenny,
my friends from uni
-Right.
-(Carrie) and Rob and Mark.
-Rob?
-Yeah.
(Boris) I thought
it was just girls.
Rob's my friend.
Yeah, I know, but, I mean,
it's a it's a bit weird.
I mean, he works
in the policy unit.
I mean, how would you like it
if I invited Caino or Dom?
They're not your friends, are they?
Rob is my friend.
Okay.
(monitor beeping)
(Tom) We need to intubate.
(Andrea)
(coughs)
-To Carrie and the baby.
-(indistinct chatter)
(guests) To Carrie and the baby.
-(Rob) Congratulations.
-Thank you. (laughs)
(patient's son) My dad's being put
into a coma for intubation,
but I want to come in and see him.
I'm afraid in the current situation
with the virus,
the hospital has
a strict policy of no visitors.
I don't care about policy.
He's my dad.
I have a right to see him.
(Tom) Listen,
I am incredibly sorry.
This is not the way we want
to do things either.
Look, your father is about to go
into ICU and I am near him now.
We can set up
a FaceTime or a Skype
I don't want to Skype him.
I want to see him.
I'm not letting you do this.
(sighs)
-(NHS worker) Sats are 78.
-(Tom) Suction. Thank you.
Yeah, that's a good view.
Pass me the tube, please.
Yeah, I'm in.
(reporter) The number
of COVID-19 related deaths
in the UK has more than doubled
in one day, taking the total to 21.
Spain has gone into lockdown
and France has shut down
all non-essential public locations.
(theme music playing)
(music concludes)