Numb3rs s01e13 Episode Script
Manhunt
Keep it moving, boys.
- Brown?|- Yeah.
- Lewis?|- Yo.
- Nichols?|- Right.
- Williams?|- Yo.
McDowd? - Brice?|- Yo.
All right, have a seat, boys.
All set.
Six prisoners- processed and secured for transfer.
Have a nice trip.
Check it out.
It's a 25-footer.
Boat like that, a man|can sail to Catalina, all the way to Mexico,if he so desired.
Yeah.
Are we there yet? Out of the way, vato! Yo, Se~or! That your truck? Good.
Get in.
You're giving us a ride.
Vamonos! Vamonos! Vengase! Get in! Sorry to bring you in on your day off.
Oh, that's all right.
What's the head count here? We got two in the bush.
Witness says there was an accident, bus rolled over.
Minute later there's a shot, two guys jump|out,car-jack a pick-up, take off headed west.
Dispatcher said something|about a fatality? - Escort Marshal.
|- Oh what do we know about these guys? Here's the file.
There's the marshal.
I take it "V" stands for velocity.
- Post-impact|velocity.
- Oh and "F", that's drag coefficient? Yeah.
You a reconstructor? Excuse me? Accident reconstructor.
Oh, no I'm a professor|of applied mathematics and I consult for the FBI.
Wow|- "professor.
" Where do you teach? CalSci.
My ex went to CalSci for engineering.
He, uh, he actually is a reconstructor|for an insurance company now.
We met on a car crash on the 101.
Anyway, um, nice to meet you.
Nice meeting you.
Excuse me.
Well, call everybody in.
And notify Fugitive Recovery.
We're gonna want them involved, as well.
All right.
Later.
You going in? Yeah, come on.
I'll give you a ride.
- Is this them?|- Yup.
One of them has a life sentence.
No possibility of parole.
Yeah, nothing to lose.
We all use math every day to forecast weather to tell time to handle money We also use math to analyze crime reveal patterns predict behavior.
Using numbers, we can solve the biggest|mysteries we know.
Fugitive one: Vincent Williams.
Until this morning, Vincent was serving eight|years on an arson charge.
Fugitive number two is Timothy McDowd.
He's a contract killer with a number of|drug dealers in and around Los Angeles.
Now, he executed a federal|informant about a year and a half ago which was witnessed by a woman|who testified against him, so I would say her safety|is our immediate concern.
Local news stations are|running their photos.
We're getting phone tips, but so far,nothing has panned out.
As far as we know, neither of them have|driver's license or IDs, so I'm not too worried about|them getting on a plane, although we should keep our|eye on the airports, right? My money says they stay local.
Hey how are you? Everybody, this is Agent Billy Cooper, - coming to us courtesy of Fugitive Recovery.
|- Hey.
Okay, so these guys usually|go where they're familiar, where they're affiliated.
They're both from LA,so my|guess is they stick around.
Wouldn't it be smarter|to leave the area, - get away from the search?|- Yeah, sure it would,but they're not smart, which is why they went|to prison to begin with.
Which doesn't mean|they're not dangerous.
So look at the files- I mean, family, friends, gang pals that's|the key to finding them.
Let's go|- let's run these guys down, all right? - Good to see you, buddy.
|- Yeah, you look good.
I take it you two know each other? Yeah, well, you know I used|to work in Fugitive Recovery.
Well, we were a team.
No better way to get to know a man than to spend a week using a gas|station rest room as home base.
- Ah, the good old days.
|- David Sinclair.
Pleasure.
Anyway, so, uh, how|do you wanna play it? I'm thinking you guys|go after Williams; I? All right.
What about the|witness who put McDowd away? I've got LAPD on her,but I'm gonna go|talk to her about witness protection.
Which room? First door on the right.
Dr.
Fisher.
- Oh, you just need to sign in with reception before I can see you.
|- Excuse me actually,I'm with the FBI.
My name is Don Eppes.
Talk to you for a minute? Uh, yeah.
- Just let me know if there's a change.
|- Okay.
- They told you what's going on?|- Yeah.
I can't tell you how much I hoped - I'd never hear the name McDowd again.
|- I'm sure.
Well, I mean,I can tell you we're|doing everything we can to find him.
Right.
Sounds very familiar.
Well look, I can only imagine what you're going through.
Can you? I mean, I watched this guy|kill a man in cold blood.
The day I testified,he looked at me and smiled, then ran his finger across his throat.
Look, I mean, what you|did took a lot of courage.
I mean, you got the guy a life sentence, he threatened you.
The smart move would be to err|on the side of caution here.
Look, I-I can't do|witness protection again.
I'm sorry.
I just can't do it.
Just hear me out, okay? It's not going to be for long.
I mean, the odds are always in|our favor in these kind of cases.
I have patients.
I can't abandon them.
Doctor, I'm sure you can|find somebody to cover you.
The last time I went into protection, I lost six months of my life.
I mean, I'm not trying to be brave but do you have any specific reason|to think he's coming after me now? No I mean,nothing specific, but Then I'd like to get back to work.
I'm gonna leave the officers here.
Here and at your home.
- I'm going to have to insist on that.
|- Okay.
Excuse me.
All right.
Thank you.
Eppes.
Yeah, I'm on my way.
- This is what doesn't make sense to me.
|- Okay.
Why weren't the marks from the tires Hey, Charlie Hey, this is Officer Morris of|the California Highway Patrol.
- This is my father and Dr.
Fleinhardt.
|- Oh, please don't tell me you|got another speeding ticket? Actually, your son's helping me|with an accident investigation.
We're trying to figure|out what caused it.
I didn't know you were|consulting for the CHP.
Are you? Don's case.
Yeah? What sort of|accident involves the FBI? Prison bus crash.
The one I saw on the news.
The bus with the escaped convicts? Don is working on that, huh? Yeah.
Why? Oh, nothing.
It's just that your brother was working|on fugitive recovery once for a while, uh anyway Appears to be basic|Newtonian mechanics the stuff of first-year|engineering students.
Now why have these elementary|equations so captured your imagination? Well, the confluence of so many unrelated factors|coming together at a given point in time It's actually quite a fascinating approach to Bayesian|inference as applied to the analysis of time series data.
Yeah, well, as far as I know|anytime an accident happens it's because somebody made a mistake.
Am I right? That's what we're trying to figure out.
The answer's not that simple.
I mean,coincidences are|a mathematical reality.
Statistically unlikely|events can and often do occur.
Just look at the genesis of our planet.
Well, now I agree that the factors that brought about|life on Earth were statistically unlikely.
But given the vastness of the cosmos, the limitless possibilities|for matter and energy I'm with Einstein on this.
There are no accidents.
Williams has been away for two years.
You really think seeing his ex-girl|is going to be tops on his list? First rule of man|hunting:Find his woman.
Maybe she found somebody new.
This is Williams' prison records.
He used all his phone|privileges calling her.
How long you been with Don? Not long.
About a year.
I remember hearing he came back to L.
A.
'cause his mom was sick.
How'd that work out?She all right? She died.
That's the downside|of fugitive recovery- you tend to lose touch.
You seem to enjoy it.
Yeah, the work kind of|gets in your blood, I guess.
Your boss was damn good at it.
He was? Spent two weeks in a cemetery once, waiting for this guy to show|up at his wife's grave Grabbed him as he was putting|a dozen roses on her headstone.
She died while he was in prison, huh? No, just before he went.
He's the one who killed her.
Hey, here we go The cans are still on her property.
Technically, we need a warrant.
Only if we're trying|to build a court case.
We don't have to please|the lawyers on this one.
Here use it.
Lady's been shopping.
Lingerie store.
She must have heard from Williams.
Well, see? Just a matter of time now.
Sinclair when? They found the pickup|truck that was hijacked.
Registration gives the|owner's name as Alberto Diaz.
Runs a gardening company out of Arleta.
Tried his office,tried his home.
No answer at either.
See if any cars were reported|stolen in, like,a three-block radius.
They may have picked up another|vehicle by now, you know? All right.
You guys got a line on them yet? Who are you? Danny Reed, LAPD Narco.
Hey, Danny,how are you? Don Eppes.
FBI.
Yeah, I recognized the suit.
Why is Narco interested in this? McDowd.
I was working a multiple drug|slaying when you guys swooped in and stole him from me a while back.
Oh, yeah? Well, we appreciate any|assistance you can give us.
I'm sure you would.
So, if the guy's in the|wind, he's fair game, right? Listen, Reed,my priority here is|apprehending a federal prisoner.
What's yours? My priority is seeing if I can get the State of California|to stick a needle in McDowd's arm.
- Oh, I see.
|- The Feds already had their chance, remember? Yeah, we put him away for life.
I'll be sure to tell that escort|marshal's widow you said so.
You're not going to get in|my way on this, now, are you? No, sir, Agent Eppes.
- Good, we're clear on that?|- Very clear.
Good.
Eppes.
Yeah, Charlie.
Okay.
Nobody touches this truck.
I can understand the fascination|of kinematic equations when working alongside an attractive|female police officer,but why all the lawn equipment? What you said about the confluence|of the cosmos triggered a thought.
Ah, note to self: Never|talk quantum theory again.
The initial velocity of the bus|barely exceeds that of the flatbed.
The gap between them closing slowly, approximately two feet per second.
- Okay, and then along comes the skateboard?|- That's right.
The pickup truck.
The pickup truck pulls along|the right side of the bus, Its velocity is 13 miles per|hour greater than that of the bus.
Now, at this point, the gap between the bus and the|flatbed truck is at least 84 feet.
Okay, that's ample enough room for the|pickup to safely maneuver in front of the bus.
However,the gap suddenly closed.
The pickup veers in front of the bus forcing the bus to maneuver and hit the guardrail, which causes it to torque and flip onto its side.
How did that gap close so quickly|between the bus and the flatbed? Two possibilities.
One- the bus greatly increased its velocity.
No, no, no, given the mass of the bus, that's extremely unlikely.
Or two- the flatbed truck reduced its speed at the critical moment, causing the pickup to|veer in front of the bus.
That's it.
- The flatbed slowed down.
|- That's right.
Well, that would mean A Markov Chain.
Exactly.
Gentlemen.
What's all this? Just trying to make sense of|something that doesn't make sense.
Thought that's what you do best.
What, uh, what's the problem? Well, apparently,that seed spreader.
The flatbed truck.
What-what about it? The crash wasn't an accident.
Don, it was staged.
All these different events and factors- from the initial velocity of the bus to its final torque- all of these create what's|called a Markov Chain.
What kind of chain? Markov.
A sequence of random values where the probabilities at any given time|depend on the values at a previous time.
The controlling factor in a Markov Chain is called the transitional probability.
Now, in this case, the bus reaches a|certain point in the road just as the truck blocks the lane, just as the pickup cuts off the bus.
Which tells you it wasn't an accident? Bayesian statistics and the|Chapman-Kolmogorov equation tell me that.
Are you sure you're his brother? If the flatbed truck had|maintained its initial velocity, well, then the pickup should have enough|space to roam freely past the bus safely|- but it didn't.
The truck slowed down just at the right|moment just as the pickup timed its move, forcing the bus to veer|violently and overturn.
So the pickup driver and|the flatbed guy are in on it.
Only the gardener's missing.
Let's go find that truck driver.
Good job, Charlie.
Thanks.
What'd you say this|driver's name was again? Chris Dunlap.
Well, we sub-out sometimes, but that's not a name|I've ever heard before.
Well, he was interviewed|at the crash site.
He was driving one of your trucks.
My trucks weren't out yesterday.
We're in the middle of a|licensing dispute with the city.
None of our equipment|has rolled in three days.
Well, the number on this one says 202.
Maybe you got the wrong company.
No, we don't have the wrong company.
Yeah, well, all right.
There it is.
Truck's right over here.
Now, you guys keep mileage logs, right? We're required to by law.
- Whoa!|- Oh, my God! Yeah, he's cold.
I don't think we're gonna|need that log anymore.
All right, step back, please.
Hey, Epps.
- Don.
|- Hey.
Dead driver's name wasn't|Dunlap;it was Brian Zane.
Handful of possession charges.
Coroner pulled a.
40-caliber|slug out of his chest.
And I have something|on the missing gardener.
Is he still alive? Alive enough to board a flight to|Mexico City the night of the crash.
You're kidding.
Which leaves no way to question him.
Why are these guys going to|so much trouble to cover up? There's nothing in|Williams' profile to suggest he's capable of pulling|something like this off.
Yeah, well, I think it's McDowd.
Worried about the witness? Yes, I am.
Charlie's here.
Hey, buddy.
What's all this? I've been looking at|all the data you have.
I'm trying to analyze the methodology you guys use to hunt fugitives.
I was explaining some|of the basics to Charlie, how we focus on family and friends.
So what do you got? Well, I've been looking at the information|that is coming in from these tip lines.
Uh, possible sightings|of Williams and McDowd.
Oh, and violent crimes|that have been committed since their escape that may|have links to their movements.
You're saying you can do what I do|with just these numbers on the board? Well, I'm sure you'll|correct me if I'm wrong, but the idea is to determine what areas have a greater statistical|probability of being visited by your fugitive, areas, uh, with family, areas around former friends.
I mean, those would|have greater probability.
Others would have less.
I mean, I you know, I mean, it's the exact same thing|I do with an equation.
I mean, I don't mean to|replace your expertise, but I'm just trying to|cut down your legwork.
Agent Sinclair.
- Hey, I'm all for that.
|- Okay.
Thanks.
Williams was just spotted|at the girlfriend's house.
And I'll bet she's wearing|that pretty outfit, too.
Put together an entry team.
- I'll call you when we're there.
|- Okay.
Williams got here an hour|ago, went in the back.
An hour? So he'll probably be tapping|the girlfriend by now.
Looks like there's a dead bolt.
Convicts like their privacy.
- I'm gonna call the entry team.
|- What? Hey, and spoil our fun? Oh, man, tell these guys|to go cover the back.
- Let's you and me go in and grab his ass.
|- Man - You ready?|- Let's do it.
FBI! Don't move! Don't move!Get your hands in the air! Don't do it!Don't do|it!Get your hands up! Up against the wall!Get|'em up,both of 'em! Stand on your feet! Up! Up! I got a.
22-caliber.
Not the one from the bus.
Not the one that did the truck|driver, either.
Get up.
Get up! - Don't you move!|- Turn around and bring your hands behind your back.
Palms up.
That's right.
Eight-year sentence for arson.
Up for parole in four.
You were halfway home,Vincent.
Well, not anymore, Coop.
I mean, not with a murder on his head.
Murder? I didn't do no murder.
No? What about the marshal|on the bus you shot? You know that guy was|a father with two kids? That was McDowd, man! You know,it's a real|surprise you saying that, especially since McDowd's not here! Hey! I didn't even know what was|gonna happen till we crashed.
Then McDowd told me to|pretend like I was hurt.
Guard starts back to help.
Next thing I know,McDowd shot the dude.
So McDowd knew the bus was gonna crash? It seemed like he did, yeah.
Seemed like he did? What else did it seem like he knew? Look we've got a dead|Federal marshal on our hands.
Someone's gonna pay for|it-at this point, it's you.
McDowd's gonna kill somebody.
Who? He didn't tell me that,but|that's why he broke out.
LAPD just got a solid tip.
McDowd was spotted 40 minutes ago, Sixth and Alvarado.
Let's go.
All right, he's here.
Back room, southeast corner.
So, how many inside? All right, heads|up,everybody.
He's here.
Our guy is inside, back|room, southeast corner.
You're gonna stand by.
Repeat: stand by.
How many out back? A couple of LAPD plainclothes.
Bar closes in about an hour.
Less civilians if things go south.
Yeah.
You're right.
All right, listen|up,we're gonna hold here.
Maintain surveillance.
Repeat: maintain surveillance.
Copy that.
What was that? Shots fired.
Shots fired.
Shots fired.
Go, go, go! FBI! - Whoa, hang on, man.
|- Where is he? - Where'd he go?|- I don't know.
I didn't see him.
He got away.
What do you mean,he got away? I made entry,McDowd drew his weapon.
I had no choice but to open fire.
You made entry? I had command!I said|maintain surveillance.
- I didn't get that.
|- We had him, you moron! Must have been on a|different tac frequency! He harms anyone-you understand me, touches anyone-it's on your head.
Okay, thanks.
Anything? Not yet.
Come on, Don,you know how it works: things don't always,you|know, pop right away.
Everything was popping just fine|till that idiot Reed showed up.
I asked around about him.
He has a reputation for playing|things a little fast and loose.
Well, you know what, sometimes that's not a bad thing.
So what do you say you|and I go bust some heads? Let McDowd's people know there's not gonna be any rest for|the wicked till someone gives him up.
Bust some heads? You really think you can scare McDowd's|folks more than McDowd already has? Well, you know, it's better|than sitting on our asses.
The tips we got nearly paid off.
Don, we had this guy at the bar, okay? We're gonna get him again.
Is this how you roll now? Look, back off, Coop|- I got a witness here to think about.
I'm not taking any chances.
You know, I'm sensing a growing|level of frustration here.
I think you better step|outside,get some air maybe let the problem|percolate a little.
Percolating is not gonna solve|the central dilemma here, Larry.
Well, what is it? I'm trying to map out|McDowd's movements.
McDowd|- he would be our fugitive, huh? The yellow dots are unsolved or uncredited|crimes that have occurred since the bus crash.
Crimes possibly committed by McDowd.
But those aren't the problems.
The problems are the blue dots.
Sightings of McDowd called|in to LAPD and FBI tip lines.
Each dot is a time and a place, but there are there are hundreds of them.
Okay, so the problem is too much data.
The problem is corrupt|data,Larry, fictitious data.
Here, look.
Right? 9:00 a.
m.
McDowd is sighted in|three separate locations, miles apart.
Okay, okay,so the public, however well-meaning, is actually hampering the search|by calling in too many sightings.
Unless this man has the ability|to be in three places at once.
Hey that's not entirely impossible.
I mean, quantum theory does state Okay.
Well, for the purposes|of this discussion, I'll concede the point.
Why are you staring at me? Because we're on to something.
McDowd cannot be in|three places at once.
However, if we analyze - those incompatibilities|- Okay, okay, okay.
So we would use Bayesian analysis to To graph the most recent|cluster of sightings to determine which of those|sightings are most likely true.
Dr.
Fisher.
Agent Eppes, are you always on duty? Well, hey, look who's talking here.
Yeah, well, I'm almost off, finally.
- You checking up on me?|- No.
What? What is it?What's wrong? You're gonna have to go into protection.
Okay, I-I thought we|had this conversation, and that I'd made myself clear.
Karen, listen to me.
You asked if we had|anything specific, and we do.
The guy who escaped with McDowd|said he is in fact after someone.
But the policeman said you- - you spotted him,that you had him.
|- Right.
We did.
Okay, I'm sorry,I-I don't know what to tell you,but he got away.
But nothing is gonna happen to you, and we're not gonna let him get to you.
But you got to trust me now, okay? Please.
It's just like|your patients do with you.
Okay.
Most people believe that they|can trust their instincts.
However, math suggests that our instincts|aren't always correct.
We're gonna play a little game.
I want you all to pretend|that we're on a game show, and I'm your cheesy game show host.
And behind one of these cards|is a brand new automobile.
And behind the other two are goats.
Yeah,goats.
Now, I need a volunteer.
Uh come on, more of you than that.
Come on.
Julie.
Why don't you pick one of these cards? Remembering of course,the|object is to win the car, not the goat.
I'll take the one in the middle.
She takes the middle card.
And what are the chances that that card is the winning card? One in three.
Three choices, one car, right? One in three, it's simple enough, right? Now, here's where the|game's gonna take a turn.
I'm going to reveal to you one of|the cards that you did not choose.
So, we have two cards|yet to be revealed.
Now, knowing what you know, do you want to switch your choice? or, more importantly, for the purposes of this class, does it matter? Will switching your choice|improve your chances of winning? Well, no.
Because now, two|cards it's 50-50, right? How many people agree with her? That's what your instinct|tells you, but you'd be wrong.
Switching your cards at this point actually doubles your|chances of winning the car.
How? Well, since we started|out with two goats, It's more likely that your|first choice was a goat.
What are the odds of choosing the goat? Two out of three.
Right.
So it's more|likely that this is a goat, less likely that it's a car, and it's more likely|that this card is a car.
See, switching your choice gives you a two-out-of-three|chance of winning the car, rather than the one-out-of-three|chance that we all began with.
Vroom, vroom.
All right.
You won a car, Julie.
Congratulations.
All right.
Well, you|know what?I think Yeah, yeah, we're out of time.
So, uh, go home, make some of these for yourselves, Put together some|reasonable "n" samples, and, uh yeah,see what happens.
I'll see you all next week.
Thanks.
Hi, Dad.
What are you doing here? Oh, I like coming whenever Charlie gives|one of these math-for-dummies lectures.
It's the only time I actually|understand what he's talking about.
This is Billy Cooper.
- He's an agent I work with.
|- Hi.
- Sir.
|- We've met before,haven't we? Oh, yeah.
I couldn't remember You worked a case|with Don out here once? Back in the day,yes, sir.
Yeah.
Donny, can I talk to you for a minute? Yeah, sure.
- Just give me a second.
|- Yeah.
Um, w-what-what|are you doing? What's going on? What are you talking about? Well, I-I haven't seen you for days.
I'm working.
Yeah, I know,Charlie told me.
Are you going back to manhunting now? Oh, I see.
Dad, come on.
- Hmm?|- Don't.
This is one case.
I seem to recall your saying that|about only one case once before, but, if you remember,they|were not good days for you, - or for me.
|- Yeah.
I mean, we didn't hear|from you for weeks.
We didn't even know|where the hell you were.
- Dad|- You do realize that chasing after someone you could be running away|from yourself at the same time.
Hey, thanks for coming down.
Yeah, we just got here.
- What's up?|- Hey, Charlie.
- What'd you think?|- Oh, I loved it.
I loved it.
Yeah.
- Yeah?|- It was great.
You weren't bored? Bored? No, no, no.
Are you kidding? I can go out and win a goat, or a car if I'm lucky.
Well, anyway, I guess you guys have something|to talk to each other about, so I'll see you at home, okay? Both of you, hmm? What have you got? This is the map you guys|have been working from.
It details every sighting, every phone tip concerning McDowd's|whereabouts over the last 36 hours.
And what's that one? This is from my algorithm.
I tried to filter the good|tips from the bad tips, at least try to target those with the greater|probability of accuracy.
And all this gives us what? McDowd's actual movements.
You see, these dots represent not only|places, but times as well, so if we're working sequentially, we can follow him from here|to here to here to here.
So, where he's been and|where he's possibly headed.
That's exactly right.
The only problem is, these movements are not in|McDowd's known territory.
To me, it looks like he's|moving in circles, right? Actually,this pattern is a|series of concentric circles.
They're almost like Almost like he's hunting.
The pattern is similar to ones that|carnivores use to stalk large prey.
Can we narrow this even more? I want to look at the movements|that are within the hunting pattern.
Like he's looking for|the medical clinic? Yeah, and maybe the witness's house.
Well, okay.
If we eliminate the movements|not connected to this pattern then the movements become|confined to this area right here.
You know what?That's|Zee-Boys' territory.
- Zee-Boys?|- Yeah.
It's this Asian gang.
I mean, drugs, gun-running,the|whole nine yards.
Yeah, but this area has|nothing to do with the witness, so who's he after? The gang's run by this|character named Romeo Choi, I mean, a real piece of work.
DEA's been after him, but they|haven't been able to make a case.
- Hmm.
|- Whoa, wait a minute.
What is it? I think there's a shipping depot here that's|supposed to be a front for the Zee-Boys.
- You think Choi's McDowd's target?|- Could be.
You said DEA's been|after Choi for a while.
Yeah, but they've just been|banging their heads against a wall.
You smell that? Yeah.
Someone fired a gun? More than once.
Still warm.
If this is McDowd's work I've been through every|file on McDowd and Choi.
And there's nothing|that links them together.
Well, there's got to be.
He was hunting him.
Maybe it was a power-grab.
Maybe McDowd's trying to take|over Choi's drug operation.
Zee-Boys got a long chain of command.
No way McDowd just steps in.
ok,?,I mean, the guy|was a contract killer.
All right.
Look, let's just break it down.
We got the bus accident.
We got the gardener and|the truck driver in on it.
Now, I say there's|got to be more players.
Someone had to know McDowd|was being transferred.
Someone had to.
Donnie, anyone with that kind of|information's working on the inside, and it's a long list.
Prison officials, corrections officers.
Well, according to this, McDowd and Williams|are in the fourth row.
All right, Williams against the window.
McDowd is across the aisle.
All right, say you're McDowd over here.
What are you thinking? That's Williams.
I mean, we've been assuming that he freed himself|with the guard's keys.
Yeah, after he shot him.
But you're McDowd,and I'm the guard.
There's no way I can reach your gun.
Not unless your hands are already free.
That your signature? What about it? Got six prisoners processed|and secured for transfer? Yeah, that's right.
Only they weren't secured,were they? At least not McDowd.
Look, I-I don't, I don't know what you're talking about.
Hey, what we're talking|about is the fact that McDowd was able to get|the gun away from the Marshal and kill him with it, that's|what we're talking about.
See, the problem is that McDowd was|supposed to be shackled at the time.
The, the chain must've|broke during the crash.
- It didn't.
|- We checked.
And the thing I can't reconcile with- because I looked in your file, Raynor- I mean, you got 15|years,positive performance.
You're gonna help someone like McDowd? What, are you strapped for cash? Huh? Some gangbanger threaten your life? Which doesn't matter, 'cause either way, you're looking at a murder conspiracy.
And I know you know what|I'm talking about here.
We want your cooperation.
You give it to us, we make sure|the U.
S.
attorney knows about it.
Otherwise we toss you over to|the guys you've been guarding.
He arrested my brother.
Who arrested your brother? He planted evidence.
A drug charge.
But who're they gonna believe? If he wanted to send my|little brother to prison, - he could do it.
|- Wait, hold on - I've seen it done|before.
- Ho-Hold on.
Just back up now.
What are we talking about here, Raynor? LAPD.
Detective Reed.
So Reed frees McDowd.
McDowd kills Choi.
There's got to be a connection there.
There is.
DEA just turned Choi as|an informant six weeks ago.
Well, there it is.
Choi was cooperating? Yep, and apparently Reed's name came up|in some of Choi's debriefing sessions.
The DEA was just starting|to look into Reed.
So Reed finds out Choi's|gonna make him dirty, gets McDowd out to kill Choi.
- Yep.
|- Reed was investigating McDowd.
They definitely have a relationship.
What does McDowd get in|return for killing Choi? Isn't his freedom enough? No, Reed's too smart for that.
He's gonna hold something back to|guarantee that McDowd'll deliver.
He's right.
If McDowd's free, he could just disappear.
There's Karen.
It's the witness.
We got her in a safe house.
No, Reed's unit would definitely|be part of that DEA task force.
He'd have access to the Fed's database.
We got to get to that safe house.
He's alive.
We got an agent down.
- Shut up, Karen!|- Go that way.
FBI! Please help me! Let her go, McDowd! Get in the room, lock the door! Coop, he's heading to the roof! You move, there's a hole in|your head,you understand me? You might as well shoot.
I'm already dead.
He could just fall off the roof.
Save your witness a|bunch of sleepless nights.
You'll never change.
You could at least grab his gun.
- Thanks.
|- It'll just be a few more minutes Hey.
How you doing? I'm, um I'm okay.
Yeah? You're sure? Yeah.
How about you? Yeah, I'm okay.
You should really get|that looked at, you know.
Oh, right.
You don't know a doctor|by any chance, do you? I might.
Donnie, we got eyeballs on Reed.
Okay.
I got to go.
We'll make sure we|get you home now, okay? - Hey, Siegel!|- Yo! - Okay.
|- Take care.
Okay.
Hey, Agent Eppes Thanks.
Okay, there you go, man.
Gracias.
Don't move, Reed.
- Drop the bags.
|- What the hell is? Drop the bags!Get your hands up.
Get 'em up! Ah, come on, who do you|think they're gonna believe? A convicted murderer or a decorated cop? My money's on the convict.
Give me your hands.
Turn around.
Let's go.
Hey.
So, you're out of here? Heading to Phoenix.
Meth tweaker I been chasing.
No chance we can get|you to stick around, maybe put in for a position around here? What, and settle down? Hey It's not bad, Coop,I got to tell you.
You don't miss it? No.
Not really, no.
The rush you get when|you're hauling his ass in Your fugitive's a couple hours ahead|of you and you're closing ground.
All right, maybe a little.
Hey, but not being in|touch with my family, not being able to talk to|anybody, I don't miss that.
I don't know,I think L.
A.
's good for me.
Well that's a good thing.
Keep your head down, huh? I'll do that.
- It's the rook.
|- Right.
It's not too distracting|for you, is it, Charlie Yeah, Charlie.
you working and playing|chess at the same time? Me? I'm fine.
It's not me you guys|need to be worried about.
- Okay.
|- We'll see about that.
- Mm-hmm.
-|Gentlemen winning isn't everything.
Oh, since when? - No, no, come on, come on.
|- You! Winning? Since you guys never win.
Come on, who cares who wins? It's about having fun.
You know, being together|and talking to each other and, uh, having a little face time.
Okay, Charlie.
Yeah, and by the|way,"anomaly" has only one "O," Charlie.
- What?|- Yeah.
It's all right.
It's your move.
You know what, do me a|favor,leave me alone, okay? I use that word in math|every single day, okay? I can spell that word.
We know that you know how to use it, but you certainly don't|know how to spell it.
It's "a-I-y,"|not "o-I-y.
" And by the way,it's|your turn again, Charlie.
I know how to spell the|word "anomaly," okay? No, you don't.
Get a dictionary.
Right now,get a dictionary.
- I think you better.
|- All right.
You know how many times|I use that word in a day, every day? No, but I do know that it's your turn.
My turn? All right, here.
- Very nice.
|- I see the word.
- Here you go.
|- There's no way that That would be one "O.
" Is this a reliable dictionary? Come on, Charlie.
I can't believe that.
Well, you better believe|it.
And guess what? What? Checkmate.
Checkmate.
Oh Yeah, I see.
You guys are ganging up on me, huh? What, you did that on purpose, that little distraction thing, huh? - Oh, come on,Charlie.
|- That's good.
Chess is not just about|moving pieces, you know.
Well, you know what? This is the last game.
I'm not playing anymore.
- Oh, come on!|- Eppes.
All right, I'll be there in 20 minutes.
All right, guys, sorry.
Hate to win and run,but I got to go.
Didn't you just get off work? Now I'm back on.
Well, I guess you got|to do what you got to do.
Sorry.
Look, I'll call you guys later.
Maybe we'll grab a|bite to eat, all right? - Right.
|- Yeah, don't worry.
I'll take care of the old man while you're gone.
- All right, see you, guys.
|- See ya.
"Old man?" I use it strictly as a|term of endearment, Father.
Well, you better prepare|yourself, my little boy, because this old man's|gonna kick your ass.
Oh, yeah? - What, are you going to cheat again?|- No.
I'm going to get the Scrabble board.
S uh Scrabble's missing a piece.
- Brown?|- Yeah.
- Lewis?|- Yo.
- Nichols?|- Right.
- Williams?|- Yo.
McDowd? - Brice?|- Yo.
All right, have a seat, boys.
All set.
Six prisoners- processed and secured for transfer.
Have a nice trip.
Check it out.
It's a 25-footer.
Boat like that, a man|can sail to Catalina, all the way to Mexico,if he so desired.
Yeah.
Are we there yet? Out of the way, vato! Yo, Se~or! That your truck? Good.
Get in.
You're giving us a ride.
Vamonos! Vamonos! Vengase! Get in! Sorry to bring you in on your day off.
Oh, that's all right.
What's the head count here? We got two in the bush.
Witness says there was an accident, bus rolled over.
Minute later there's a shot, two guys jump|out,car-jack a pick-up, take off headed west.
Dispatcher said something|about a fatality? - Escort Marshal.
|- Oh what do we know about these guys? Here's the file.
There's the marshal.
I take it "V" stands for velocity.
- Post-impact|velocity.
- Oh and "F", that's drag coefficient? Yeah.
You a reconstructor? Excuse me? Accident reconstructor.
Oh, no I'm a professor|of applied mathematics and I consult for the FBI.
Wow|- "professor.
" Where do you teach? CalSci.
My ex went to CalSci for engineering.
He, uh, he actually is a reconstructor|for an insurance company now.
We met on a car crash on the 101.
Anyway, um, nice to meet you.
Nice meeting you.
Excuse me.
Well, call everybody in.
And notify Fugitive Recovery.
We're gonna want them involved, as well.
All right.
Later.
You going in? Yeah, come on.
I'll give you a ride.
- Is this them?|- Yup.
One of them has a life sentence.
No possibility of parole.
Yeah, nothing to lose.
We all use math every day to forecast weather to tell time to handle money We also use math to analyze crime reveal patterns predict behavior.
Using numbers, we can solve the biggest|mysteries we know.
Fugitive one: Vincent Williams.
Until this morning, Vincent was serving eight|years on an arson charge.
Fugitive number two is Timothy McDowd.
He's a contract killer with a number of|drug dealers in and around Los Angeles.
Now, he executed a federal|informant about a year and a half ago which was witnessed by a woman|who testified against him, so I would say her safety|is our immediate concern.
Local news stations are|running their photos.
We're getting phone tips, but so far,nothing has panned out.
As far as we know, neither of them have|driver's license or IDs, so I'm not too worried about|them getting on a plane, although we should keep our|eye on the airports, right? My money says they stay local.
Hey how are you? Everybody, this is Agent Billy Cooper, - coming to us courtesy of Fugitive Recovery.
|- Hey.
Okay, so these guys usually|go where they're familiar, where they're affiliated.
They're both from LA,so my|guess is they stick around.
Wouldn't it be smarter|to leave the area, - get away from the search?|- Yeah, sure it would,but they're not smart, which is why they went|to prison to begin with.
Which doesn't mean|they're not dangerous.
So look at the files- I mean, family, friends, gang pals that's|the key to finding them.
Let's go|- let's run these guys down, all right? - Good to see you, buddy.
|- Yeah, you look good.
I take it you two know each other? Yeah, well, you know I used|to work in Fugitive Recovery.
Well, we were a team.
No better way to get to know a man than to spend a week using a gas|station rest room as home base.
- Ah, the good old days.
|- David Sinclair.
Pleasure.
Anyway, so, uh, how|do you wanna play it? I'm thinking you guys|go after Williams; I? All right.
What about the|witness who put McDowd away? I've got LAPD on her,but I'm gonna go|talk to her about witness protection.
Which room? First door on the right.
Dr.
Fisher.
- Oh, you just need to sign in with reception before I can see you.
|- Excuse me actually,I'm with the FBI.
My name is Don Eppes.
Talk to you for a minute? Uh, yeah.
- Just let me know if there's a change.
|- Okay.
- They told you what's going on?|- Yeah.
I can't tell you how much I hoped - I'd never hear the name McDowd again.
|- I'm sure.
Well, I mean,I can tell you we're|doing everything we can to find him.
Right.
Sounds very familiar.
Well look, I can only imagine what you're going through.
Can you? I mean, I watched this guy|kill a man in cold blood.
The day I testified,he looked at me and smiled, then ran his finger across his throat.
Look, I mean, what you|did took a lot of courage.
I mean, you got the guy a life sentence, he threatened you.
The smart move would be to err|on the side of caution here.
Look, I-I can't do|witness protection again.
I'm sorry.
I just can't do it.
Just hear me out, okay? It's not going to be for long.
I mean, the odds are always in|our favor in these kind of cases.
I have patients.
I can't abandon them.
Doctor, I'm sure you can|find somebody to cover you.
The last time I went into protection, I lost six months of my life.
I mean, I'm not trying to be brave but do you have any specific reason|to think he's coming after me now? No I mean,nothing specific, but Then I'd like to get back to work.
I'm gonna leave the officers here.
Here and at your home.
- I'm going to have to insist on that.
|- Okay.
Excuse me.
All right.
Thank you.
Eppes.
Yeah, I'm on my way.
- This is what doesn't make sense to me.
|- Okay.
Why weren't the marks from the tires Hey, Charlie Hey, this is Officer Morris of|the California Highway Patrol.
- This is my father and Dr.
Fleinhardt.
|- Oh, please don't tell me you|got another speeding ticket? Actually, your son's helping me|with an accident investigation.
We're trying to figure|out what caused it.
I didn't know you were|consulting for the CHP.
Are you? Don's case.
Yeah? What sort of|accident involves the FBI? Prison bus crash.
The one I saw on the news.
The bus with the escaped convicts? Don is working on that, huh? Yeah.
Why? Oh, nothing.
It's just that your brother was working|on fugitive recovery once for a while, uh anyway Appears to be basic|Newtonian mechanics the stuff of first-year|engineering students.
Now why have these elementary|equations so captured your imagination? Well, the confluence of so many unrelated factors|coming together at a given point in time It's actually quite a fascinating approach to Bayesian|inference as applied to the analysis of time series data.
Yeah, well, as far as I know|anytime an accident happens it's because somebody made a mistake.
Am I right? That's what we're trying to figure out.
The answer's not that simple.
I mean,coincidences are|a mathematical reality.
Statistically unlikely|events can and often do occur.
Just look at the genesis of our planet.
Well, now I agree that the factors that brought about|life on Earth were statistically unlikely.
But given the vastness of the cosmos, the limitless possibilities|for matter and energy I'm with Einstein on this.
There are no accidents.
Williams has been away for two years.
You really think seeing his ex-girl|is going to be tops on his list? First rule of man|hunting:Find his woman.
Maybe she found somebody new.
This is Williams' prison records.
He used all his phone|privileges calling her.
How long you been with Don? Not long.
About a year.
I remember hearing he came back to L.
A.
'cause his mom was sick.
How'd that work out?She all right? She died.
That's the downside|of fugitive recovery- you tend to lose touch.
You seem to enjoy it.
Yeah, the work kind of|gets in your blood, I guess.
Your boss was damn good at it.
He was? Spent two weeks in a cemetery once, waiting for this guy to show|up at his wife's grave Grabbed him as he was putting|a dozen roses on her headstone.
She died while he was in prison, huh? No, just before he went.
He's the one who killed her.
Hey, here we go The cans are still on her property.
Technically, we need a warrant.
Only if we're trying|to build a court case.
We don't have to please|the lawyers on this one.
Here use it.
Lady's been shopping.
Lingerie store.
She must have heard from Williams.
Well, see? Just a matter of time now.
Sinclair when? They found the pickup|truck that was hijacked.
Registration gives the|owner's name as Alberto Diaz.
Runs a gardening company out of Arleta.
Tried his office,tried his home.
No answer at either.
See if any cars were reported|stolen in, like,a three-block radius.
They may have picked up another|vehicle by now, you know? All right.
You guys got a line on them yet? Who are you? Danny Reed, LAPD Narco.
Hey, Danny,how are you? Don Eppes.
FBI.
Yeah, I recognized the suit.
Why is Narco interested in this? McDowd.
I was working a multiple drug|slaying when you guys swooped in and stole him from me a while back.
Oh, yeah? Well, we appreciate any|assistance you can give us.
I'm sure you would.
So, if the guy's in the|wind, he's fair game, right? Listen, Reed,my priority here is|apprehending a federal prisoner.
What's yours? My priority is seeing if I can get the State of California|to stick a needle in McDowd's arm.
- Oh, I see.
|- The Feds already had their chance, remember? Yeah, we put him away for life.
I'll be sure to tell that escort|marshal's widow you said so.
You're not going to get in|my way on this, now, are you? No, sir, Agent Eppes.
- Good, we're clear on that?|- Very clear.
Good.
Eppes.
Yeah, Charlie.
Okay.
Nobody touches this truck.
I can understand the fascination|of kinematic equations when working alongside an attractive|female police officer,but why all the lawn equipment? What you said about the confluence|of the cosmos triggered a thought.
Ah, note to self: Never|talk quantum theory again.
The initial velocity of the bus|barely exceeds that of the flatbed.
The gap between them closing slowly, approximately two feet per second.
- Okay, and then along comes the skateboard?|- That's right.
The pickup truck.
The pickup truck pulls along|the right side of the bus, Its velocity is 13 miles per|hour greater than that of the bus.
Now, at this point, the gap between the bus and the|flatbed truck is at least 84 feet.
Okay, that's ample enough room for the|pickup to safely maneuver in front of the bus.
However,the gap suddenly closed.
The pickup veers in front of the bus forcing the bus to maneuver and hit the guardrail, which causes it to torque and flip onto its side.
How did that gap close so quickly|between the bus and the flatbed? Two possibilities.
One- the bus greatly increased its velocity.
No, no, no, given the mass of the bus, that's extremely unlikely.
Or two- the flatbed truck reduced its speed at the critical moment, causing the pickup to|veer in front of the bus.
That's it.
- The flatbed slowed down.
|- That's right.
Well, that would mean A Markov Chain.
Exactly.
Gentlemen.
What's all this? Just trying to make sense of|something that doesn't make sense.
Thought that's what you do best.
What, uh, what's the problem? Well, apparently,that seed spreader.
The flatbed truck.
What-what about it? The crash wasn't an accident.
Don, it was staged.
All these different events and factors- from the initial velocity of the bus to its final torque- all of these create what's|called a Markov Chain.
What kind of chain? Markov.
A sequence of random values where the probabilities at any given time|depend on the values at a previous time.
The controlling factor in a Markov Chain is called the transitional probability.
Now, in this case, the bus reaches a|certain point in the road just as the truck blocks the lane, just as the pickup cuts off the bus.
Which tells you it wasn't an accident? Bayesian statistics and the|Chapman-Kolmogorov equation tell me that.
Are you sure you're his brother? If the flatbed truck had|maintained its initial velocity, well, then the pickup should have enough|space to roam freely past the bus safely|- but it didn't.
The truck slowed down just at the right|moment just as the pickup timed its move, forcing the bus to veer|violently and overturn.
So the pickup driver and|the flatbed guy are in on it.
Only the gardener's missing.
Let's go find that truck driver.
Good job, Charlie.
Thanks.
What'd you say this|driver's name was again? Chris Dunlap.
Well, we sub-out sometimes, but that's not a name|I've ever heard before.
Well, he was interviewed|at the crash site.
He was driving one of your trucks.
My trucks weren't out yesterday.
We're in the middle of a|licensing dispute with the city.
None of our equipment|has rolled in three days.
Well, the number on this one says 202.
Maybe you got the wrong company.
No, we don't have the wrong company.
Yeah, well, all right.
There it is.
Truck's right over here.
Now, you guys keep mileage logs, right? We're required to by law.
- Whoa!|- Oh, my God! Yeah, he's cold.
I don't think we're gonna|need that log anymore.
All right, step back, please.
Hey, Epps.
- Don.
|- Hey.
Dead driver's name wasn't|Dunlap;it was Brian Zane.
Handful of possession charges.
Coroner pulled a.
40-caliber|slug out of his chest.
And I have something|on the missing gardener.
Is he still alive? Alive enough to board a flight to|Mexico City the night of the crash.
You're kidding.
Which leaves no way to question him.
Why are these guys going to|so much trouble to cover up? There's nothing in|Williams' profile to suggest he's capable of pulling|something like this off.
Yeah, well, I think it's McDowd.
Worried about the witness? Yes, I am.
Charlie's here.
Hey, buddy.
What's all this? I've been looking at|all the data you have.
I'm trying to analyze the methodology you guys use to hunt fugitives.
I was explaining some|of the basics to Charlie, how we focus on family and friends.
So what do you got? Well, I've been looking at the information|that is coming in from these tip lines.
Uh, possible sightings|of Williams and McDowd.
Oh, and violent crimes|that have been committed since their escape that may|have links to their movements.
You're saying you can do what I do|with just these numbers on the board? Well, I'm sure you'll|correct me if I'm wrong, but the idea is to determine what areas have a greater statistical|probability of being visited by your fugitive, areas, uh, with family, areas around former friends.
I mean, those would|have greater probability.
Others would have less.
I mean, I you know, I mean, it's the exact same thing|I do with an equation.
I mean, I don't mean to|replace your expertise, but I'm just trying to|cut down your legwork.
Agent Sinclair.
- Hey, I'm all for that.
|- Okay.
Thanks.
Williams was just spotted|at the girlfriend's house.
And I'll bet she's wearing|that pretty outfit, too.
Put together an entry team.
- I'll call you when we're there.
|- Okay.
Williams got here an hour|ago, went in the back.
An hour? So he'll probably be tapping|the girlfriend by now.
Looks like there's a dead bolt.
Convicts like their privacy.
- I'm gonna call the entry team.
|- What? Hey, and spoil our fun? Oh, man, tell these guys|to go cover the back.
- Let's you and me go in and grab his ass.
|- Man - You ready?|- Let's do it.
FBI! Don't move! Don't move!Get your hands in the air! Don't do it!Don't do|it!Get your hands up! Up against the wall!Get|'em up,both of 'em! Stand on your feet! Up! Up! I got a.
22-caliber.
Not the one from the bus.
Not the one that did the truck|driver, either.
Get up.
Get up! - Don't you move!|- Turn around and bring your hands behind your back.
Palms up.
That's right.
Eight-year sentence for arson.
Up for parole in four.
You were halfway home,Vincent.
Well, not anymore, Coop.
I mean, not with a murder on his head.
Murder? I didn't do no murder.
No? What about the marshal|on the bus you shot? You know that guy was|a father with two kids? That was McDowd, man! You know,it's a real|surprise you saying that, especially since McDowd's not here! Hey! I didn't even know what was|gonna happen till we crashed.
Then McDowd told me to|pretend like I was hurt.
Guard starts back to help.
Next thing I know,McDowd shot the dude.
So McDowd knew the bus was gonna crash? It seemed like he did, yeah.
Seemed like he did? What else did it seem like he knew? Look we've got a dead|Federal marshal on our hands.
Someone's gonna pay for|it-at this point, it's you.
McDowd's gonna kill somebody.
Who? He didn't tell me that,but|that's why he broke out.
LAPD just got a solid tip.
McDowd was spotted 40 minutes ago, Sixth and Alvarado.
Let's go.
All right, he's here.
Back room, southeast corner.
So, how many inside? All right, heads|up,everybody.
He's here.
Our guy is inside, back|room, southeast corner.
You're gonna stand by.
Repeat: stand by.
How many out back? A couple of LAPD plainclothes.
Bar closes in about an hour.
Less civilians if things go south.
Yeah.
You're right.
All right, listen|up,we're gonna hold here.
Maintain surveillance.
Repeat: maintain surveillance.
Copy that.
What was that? Shots fired.
Shots fired.
Shots fired.
Go, go, go! FBI! - Whoa, hang on, man.
|- Where is he? - Where'd he go?|- I don't know.
I didn't see him.
He got away.
What do you mean,he got away? I made entry,McDowd drew his weapon.
I had no choice but to open fire.
You made entry? I had command!I said|maintain surveillance.
- I didn't get that.
|- We had him, you moron! Must have been on a|different tac frequency! He harms anyone-you understand me, touches anyone-it's on your head.
Okay, thanks.
Anything? Not yet.
Come on, Don,you know how it works: things don't always,you|know, pop right away.
Everything was popping just fine|till that idiot Reed showed up.
I asked around about him.
He has a reputation for playing|things a little fast and loose.
Well, you know what, sometimes that's not a bad thing.
So what do you say you|and I go bust some heads? Let McDowd's people know there's not gonna be any rest for|the wicked till someone gives him up.
Bust some heads? You really think you can scare McDowd's|folks more than McDowd already has? Well, you know, it's better|than sitting on our asses.
The tips we got nearly paid off.
Don, we had this guy at the bar, okay? We're gonna get him again.
Is this how you roll now? Look, back off, Coop|- I got a witness here to think about.
I'm not taking any chances.
You know, I'm sensing a growing|level of frustration here.
I think you better step|outside,get some air maybe let the problem|percolate a little.
Percolating is not gonna solve|the central dilemma here, Larry.
Well, what is it? I'm trying to map out|McDowd's movements.
McDowd|- he would be our fugitive, huh? The yellow dots are unsolved or uncredited|crimes that have occurred since the bus crash.
Crimes possibly committed by McDowd.
But those aren't the problems.
The problems are the blue dots.
Sightings of McDowd called|in to LAPD and FBI tip lines.
Each dot is a time and a place, but there are there are hundreds of them.
Okay, so the problem is too much data.
The problem is corrupt|data,Larry, fictitious data.
Here, look.
Right? 9:00 a.
m.
McDowd is sighted in|three separate locations, miles apart.
Okay, okay,so the public, however well-meaning, is actually hampering the search|by calling in too many sightings.
Unless this man has the ability|to be in three places at once.
Hey that's not entirely impossible.
I mean, quantum theory does state Okay.
Well, for the purposes|of this discussion, I'll concede the point.
Why are you staring at me? Because we're on to something.
McDowd cannot be in|three places at once.
However, if we analyze - those incompatibilities|- Okay, okay, okay.
So we would use Bayesian analysis to To graph the most recent|cluster of sightings to determine which of those|sightings are most likely true.
Dr.
Fisher.
Agent Eppes, are you always on duty? Well, hey, look who's talking here.
Yeah, well, I'm almost off, finally.
- You checking up on me?|- No.
What? What is it?What's wrong? You're gonna have to go into protection.
Okay, I-I thought we|had this conversation, and that I'd made myself clear.
Karen, listen to me.
You asked if we had|anything specific, and we do.
The guy who escaped with McDowd|said he is in fact after someone.
But the policeman said you- - you spotted him,that you had him.
|- Right.
We did.
Okay, I'm sorry,I-I don't know what to tell you,but he got away.
But nothing is gonna happen to you, and we're not gonna let him get to you.
But you got to trust me now, okay? Please.
It's just like|your patients do with you.
Okay.
Most people believe that they|can trust their instincts.
However, math suggests that our instincts|aren't always correct.
We're gonna play a little game.
I want you all to pretend|that we're on a game show, and I'm your cheesy game show host.
And behind one of these cards|is a brand new automobile.
And behind the other two are goats.
Yeah,goats.
Now, I need a volunteer.
Uh come on, more of you than that.
Come on.
Julie.
Why don't you pick one of these cards? Remembering of course,the|object is to win the car, not the goat.
I'll take the one in the middle.
She takes the middle card.
And what are the chances that that card is the winning card? One in three.
Three choices, one car, right? One in three, it's simple enough, right? Now, here's where the|game's gonna take a turn.
I'm going to reveal to you one of|the cards that you did not choose.
So, we have two cards|yet to be revealed.
Now, knowing what you know, do you want to switch your choice? or, more importantly, for the purposes of this class, does it matter? Will switching your choice|improve your chances of winning? Well, no.
Because now, two|cards it's 50-50, right? How many people agree with her? That's what your instinct|tells you, but you'd be wrong.
Switching your cards at this point actually doubles your|chances of winning the car.
How? Well, since we started|out with two goats, It's more likely that your|first choice was a goat.
What are the odds of choosing the goat? Two out of three.
Right.
So it's more|likely that this is a goat, less likely that it's a car, and it's more likely|that this card is a car.
See, switching your choice gives you a two-out-of-three|chance of winning the car, rather than the one-out-of-three|chance that we all began with.
Vroom, vroom.
All right.
You won a car, Julie.
Congratulations.
All right.
Well, you|know what?I think Yeah, yeah, we're out of time.
So, uh, go home, make some of these for yourselves, Put together some|reasonable "n" samples, and, uh yeah,see what happens.
I'll see you all next week.
Thanks.
Hi, Dad.
What are you doing here? Oh, I like coming whenever Charlie gives|one of these math-for-dummies lectures.
It's the only time I actually|understand what he's talking about.
This is Billy Cooper.
- He's an agent I work with.
|- Hi.
- Sir.
|- We've met before,haven't we? Oh, yeah.
I couldn't remember You worked a case|with Don out here once? Back in the day,yes, sir.
Yeah.
Donny, can I talk to you for a minute? Yeah, sure.
- Just give me a second.
|- Yeah.
Um, w-what-what|are you doing? What's going on? What are you talking about? Well, I-I haven't seen you for days.
I'm working.
Yeah, I know,Charlie told me.
Are you going back to manhunting now? Oh, I see.
Dad, come on.
- Hmm?|- Don't.
This is one case.
I seem to recall your saying that|about only one case once before, but, if you remember,they|were not good days for you, - or for me.
|- Yeah.
I mean, we didn't hear|from you for weeks.
We didn't even know|where the hell you were.
- Dad|- You do realize that chasing after someone you could be running away|from yourself at the same time.
Hey, thanks for coming down.
Yeah, we just got here.
- What's up?|- Hey, Charlie.
- What'd you think?|- Oh, I loved it.
I loved it.
Yeah.
- Yeah?|- It was great.
You weren't bored? Bored? No, no, no.
Are you kidding? I can go out and win a goat, or a car if I'm lucky.
Well, anyway, I guess you guys have something|to talk to each other about, so I'll see you at home, okay? Both of you, hmm? What have you got? This is the map you guys|have been working from.
It details every sighting, every phone tip concerning McDowd's|whereabouts over the last 36 hours.
And what's that one? This is from my algorithm.
I tried to filter the good|tips from the bad tips, at least try to target those with the greater|probability of accuracy.
And all this gives us what? McDowd's actual movements.
You see, these dots represent not only|places, but times as well, so if we're working sequentially, we can follow him from here|to here to here to here.
So, where he's been and|where he's possibly headed.
That's exactly right.
The only problem is, these movements are not in|McDowd's known territory.
To me, it looks like he's|moving in circles, right? Actually,this pattern is a|series of concentric circles.
They're almost like Almost like he's hunting.
The pattern is similar to ones that|carnivores use to stalk large prey.
Can we narrow this even more? I want to look at the movements|that are within the hunting pattern.
Like he's looking for|the medical clinic? Yeah, and maybe the witness's house.
Well, okay.
If we eliminate the movements|not connected to this pattern then the movements become|confined to this area right here.
You know what?That's|Zee-Boys' territory.
- Zee-Boys?|- Yeah.
It's this Asian gang.
I mean, drugs, gun-running,the|whole nine yards.
Yeah, but this area has|nothing to do with the witness, so who's he after? The gang's run by this|character named Romeo Choi, I mean, a real piece of work.
DEA's been after him, but they|haven't been able to make a case.
- Hmm.
|- Whoa, wait a minute.
What is it? I think there's a shipping depot here that's|supposed to be a front for the Zee-Boys.
- You think Choi's McDowd's target?|- Could be.
You said DEA's been|after Choi for a while.
Yeah, but they've just been|banging their heads against a wall.
You smell that? Yeah.
Someone fired a gun? More than once.
Still warm.
If this is McDowd's work I've been through every|file on McDowd and Choi.
And there's nothing|that links them together.
Well, there's got to be.
He was hunting him.
Maybe it was a power-grab.
Maybe McDowd's trying to take|over Choi's drug operation.
Zee-Boys got a long chain of command.
No way McDowd just steps in.
ok,?,I mean, the guy|was a contract killer.
All right.
Look, let's just break it down.
We got the bus accident.
We got the gardener and|the truck driver in on it.
Now, I say there's|got to be more players.
Someone had to know McDowd|was being transferred.
Someone had to.
Donnie, anyone with that kind of|information's working on the inside, and it's a long list.
Prison officials, corrections officers.
Well, according to this, McDowd and Williams|are in the fourth row.
All right, Williams against the window.
McDowd is across the aisle.
All right, say you're McDowd over here.
What are you thinking? That's Williams.
I mean, we've been assuming that he freed himself|with the guard's keys.
Yeah, after he shot him.
But you're McDowd,and I'm the guard.
There's no way I can reach your gun.
Not unless your hands are already free.
That your signature? What about it? Got six prisoners processed|and secured for transfer? Yeah, that's right.
Only they weren't secured,were they? At least not McDowd.
Look, I-I don't, I don't know what you're talking about.
Hey, what we're talking|about is the fact that McDowd was able to get|the gun away from the Marshal and kill him with it, that's|what we're talking about.
See, the problem is that McDowd was|supposed to be shackled at the time.
The, the chain must've|broke during the crash.
- It didn't.
|- We checked.
And the thing I can't reconcile with- because I looked in your file, Raynor- I mean, you got 15|years,positive performance.
You're gonna help someone like McDowd? What, are you strapped for cash? Huh? Some gangbanger threaten your life? Which doesn't matter, 'cause either way, you're looking at a murder conspiracy.
And I know you know what|I'm talking about here.
We want your cooperation.
You give it to us, we make sure|the U.
S.
attorney knows about it.
Otherwise we toss you over to|the guys you've been guarding.
He arrested my brother.
Who arrested your brother? He planted evidence.
A drug charge.
But who're they gonna believe? If he wanted to send my|little brother to prison, - he could do it.
|- Wait, hold on - I've seen it done|before.
- Ho-Hold on.
Just back up now.
What are we talking about here, Raynor? LAPD.
Detective Reed.
So Reed frees McDowd.
McDowd kills Choi.
There's got to be a connection there.
There is.
DEA just turned Choi as|an informant six weeks ago.
Well, there it is.
Choi was cooperating? Yep, and apparently Reed's name came up|in some of Choi's debriefing sessions.
The DEA was just starting|to look into Reed.
So Reed finds out Choi's|gonna make him dirty, gets McDowd out to kill Choi.
- Yep.
|- Reed was investigating McDowd.
They definitely have a relationship.
What does McDowd get in|return for killing Choi? Isn't his freedom enough? No, Reed's too smart for that.
He's gonna hold something back to|guarantee that McDowd'll deliver.
He's right.
If McDowd's free, he could just disappear.
There's Karen.
It's the witness.
We got her in a safe house.
No, Reed's unit would definitely|be part of that DEA task force.
He'd have access to the Fed's database.
We got to get to that safe house.
He's alive.
We got an agent down.
- Shut up, Karen!|- Go that way.
FBI! Please help me! Let her go, McDowd! Get in the room, lock the door! Coop, he's heading to the roof! You move, there's a hole in|your head,you understand me? You might as well shoot.
I'm already dead.
He could just fall off the roof.
Save your witness a|bunch of sleepless nights.
You'll never change.
You could at least grab his gun.
- Thanks.
|- It'll just be a few more minutes Hey.
How you doing? I'm, um I'm okay.
Yeah? You're sure? Yeah.
How about you? Yeah, I'm okay.
You should really get|that looked at, you know.
Oh, right.
You don't know a doctor|by any chance, do you? I might.
Donnie, we got eyeballs on Reed.
Okay.
I got to go.
We'll make sure we|get you home now, okay? - Hey, Siegel!|- Yo! - Okay.
|- Take care.
Okay.
Hey, Agent Eppes Thanks.
Okay, there you go, man.
Gracias.
Don't move, Reed.
- Drop the bags.
|- What the hell is? Drop the bags!Get your hands up.
Get 'em up! Ah, come on, who do you|think they're gonna believe? A convicted murderer or a decorated cop? My money's on the convict.
Give me your hands.
Turn around.
Let's go.
Hey.
So, you're out of here? Heading to Phoenix.
Meth tweaker I been chasing.
No chance we can get|you to stick around, maybe put in for a position around here? What, and settle down? Hey It's not bad, Coop,I got to tell you.
You don't miss it? No.
Not really, no.
The rush you get when|you're hauling his ass in Your fugitive's a couple hours ahead|of you and you're closing ground.
All right, maybe a little.
Hey, but not being in|touch with my family, not being able to talk to|anybody, I don't miss that.
I don't know,I think L.
A.
's good for me.
Well that's a good thing.
Keep your head down, huh? I'll do that.
- It's the rook.
|- Right.
It's not too distracting|for you, is it, Charlie Yeah, Charlie.
you working and playing|chess at the same time? Me? I'm fine.
It's not me you guys|need to be worried about.
- Okay.
|- We'll see about that.
- Mm-hmm.
-|Gentlemen winning isn't everything.
Oh, since when? - No, no, come on, come on.
|- You! Winning? Since you guys never win.
Come on, who cares who wins? It's about having fun.
You know, being together|and talking to each other and, uh, having a little face time.
Okay, Charlie.
Yeah, and by the|way,"anomaly" has only one "O," Charlie.
- What?|- Yeah.
It's all right.
It's your move.
You know what, do me a|favor,leave me alone, okay? I use that word in math|every single day, okay? I can spell that word.
We know that you know how to use it, but you certainly don't|know how to spell it.
It's "a-I-y,"|not "o-I-y.
" And by the way,it's|your turn again, Charlie.
I know how to spell the|word "anomaly," okay? No, you don't.
Get a dictionary.
Right now,get a dictionary.
- I think you better.
|- All right.
You know how many times|I use that word in a day, every day? No, but I do know that it's your turn.
My turn? All right, here.
- Very nice.
|- I see the word.
- Here you go.
|- There's no way that That would be one "O.
" Is this a reliable dictionary? Come on, Charlie.
I can't believe that.
Well, you better believe|it.
And guess what? What? Checkmate.
Checkmate.
Oh Yeah, I see.
You guys are ganging up on me, huh? What, you did that on purpose, that little distraction thing, huh? - Oh, come on,Charlie.
|- That's good.
Chess is not just about|moving pieces, you know.
Well, you know what? This is the last game.
I'm not playing anymore.
- Oh, come on!|- Eppes.
All right, I'll be there in 20 minutes.
All right, guys, sorry.
Hate to win and run,but I got to go.
Didn't you just get off work? Now I'm back on.
Well, I guess you got|to do what you got to do.
Sorry.
Look, I'll call you guys later.
Maybe we'll grab a|bite to eat, all right? - Right.
|- Yeah, don't worry.
I'll take care of the old man while you're gone.
- All right, see you, guys.
|- See ya.
"Old man?" I use it strictly as a|term of endearment, Father.
Well, you better prepare|yourself, my little boy, because this old man's|gonna kick your ass.
Oh, yeah? - What, are you going to cheat again?|- No.
I'm going to get the Scrabble board.
S uh Scrabble's missing a piece.